2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Here are all 14 teams sorted by tentative tier.  The columns are:

• Team:  The team in Question.  
• noAway:  a team that they do not play on the road.  
• noAway:  a team that they do not play on the road.  
• noAway:  a team that they do not play on the road.  
• noHome:  a team that they do not host.  
• noHome:  a team that they do not host.  
• noHome:  a team that they do not host.
• RR-W:  The number of wins that our tier-based system projects this team would get in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• RR-L:  The number of losses that our tier-based system projects this team would get in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• miss-W:  The number of wins we project that this team would get in the six games not played (#2-#7) if they were played.  
• miss-L:  The number of losses we project that this team would get in the six games not played (#2-#7) if they were played.  
• Proj-W:  #8 minus #10.  The number of wins we project after deducting games not played.  
• Proj-L:  #9 minus #11.  The number of losses we project after deducting games not played.  
• RR%:  The projected winning percentage in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• Proj%:  The projected winning percentage after deducting the six games not played.  
• Diff:  #15 minus #14.  Ie, this is a rough measure of favor-ability of schedule.  Ie, Michigan (0.092) has the most favorable schedule while Purdue (-0.081) has the least favorable schedule.  

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff
M	UNL	tOSU	PU	IL	IA	RU	21	5	3	3	18	2	0.808	0.900	0.092
UNL	NU	tOSU	UW	IU	M	RU	19	7	4	2	15	5	0.731	0.750	0.019
UW	MSU	PU	RU	IU	UNL	tOSU	19	7	4	2	15	5	0.731	0.750	0.019
MSU	UMD	MN	NU	IL	PSU	UW	19	7	5	1	14	6	0.731	0.700	(0.031)
tOSU	MN	PSU	UW	IU	M	UNL	19	7	5	1	14	6	0.731	0.700	(0.031)
Purdue	IL	IA	RU	M	NU	UW	19	7	6	0	13	7	0.731	0.650	(0.081)
IU	UNL	tOSU	UW	UMD	MN	PSU	15	11	3	3	12	8	0.577	0.600	0.023
UMD	IL	IU	NU	IA	MSU	RU	15	11	4	2	11	9	0.577	0.550	(0.027)
NU	MN	PSU	PU	UMD	MSU	UNL	8	18	1	5	7	13	0.308	0.350	0.042
PSU	IU	IA	MSU	MN	NU	tOSU	8	18	2	4	6	14	0.308	0.300	(0.008)
Iowa	IL	UMD	M	MN	PSU	PU	8	18	3	3	5	15	0.308	0.250	(0.058)
Minny	IU	IA	PSU	MSU	NU	tOSU	5	21	1	5	4	16	0.192	0.200	0.008
RU	UMD	M	UNL	IL	PU	UW	5	21	1	5	4	16	0.192	0.200	0.008
ILL	M	MSU	RU	IA	UMD	PU	2	24	0	6	2	18	0.077	0.100	0.023

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Tournament seeds based on those projections:

• 18-2 Michigan
• 15-5 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
• 15-5 Wisconsin
• 14-6 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over tOSU based on record against M)
• 14-6 Ohio State
• 13-7 Purdue
• 12-8 Indiana
• 11-9 Maryland
• 7-13 Northwestern
• 6-14 Penn State
• 5-15 Iowa
• 4-16 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over MN based on record against NU)
• 4-16 Minnesota
• 2-18 Illinois

The match-ups at the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Minnesota, 6:30pm on BTN
• #11 Iowa vs #14 Illinois, 9pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14:

• #5 Ohio State vs RU/MN, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Purdue vs IA/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Indiana vs #10 Penn State, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Northwestern, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Michigan vs UMD/NU, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Nebraska vs IU/PSU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs PU/IA/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs tOSU/RU/MN, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• M/UMD/NU vs MSU/tOSU/RU/MN, 1pm on CBS
• UNL/IU/PSU vs UW/PU/IA/IL, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• M/UMD/NU/MSU/tOSU/RU/MN vs UNL/IU/PSU/UW/PU/IA/IL, 3:30pm on CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

Thoughts on going to the B1G Tournament this March in Chicago:

If you are considering it, I highly recommend it.  My (now) wife and I went to the B1G Tournament in Chicago back in 2015.  One neat thing about it is that you will be there for Chicago's St. Patrick's Day celebrations on Saturday, March 16.  They die the river green and hold a big parade all downtown not too far from the downtown hotels and the bus to the United Center.  

The City runs extra express busses from downtown to the United Center and that REALLY helps getting there and back.  

Also, if you get there a day early you can celebrate Pi Day in Chicago.  Marcel (@nuwildcat ) would understand.  When my wife and I went in 2015 we met up with him.  

[ELA]

So we decided to leave Nebraska and MInnesota where they were, and leave that an upset.  I was on the fence on both and made them 2/5, but I think they could easily be 3/4, and Minnesota's home win over the Huskers already would verify that.

[ELA]

Kids feed off their head coach, and when the head coach melts down, well, that's that.



In other news, UW got a transfer yesterday. Micah Potter from Ohio State has pledged to the Badgers and will enroll next semester.

I'm assuming the whole 2 years in conference thing is gone?  The Luke Reckert drama from years past comes to mind, and didn't Bo Ryan block a kid going to Iowa from just sitting out 1 year or something?

[medinabuckeye1]

The latest bracketology has 10 B1G teams in the tournament with another in the "next four out".  By seed:

• #1 Michigan
• #2 Michigan State
• #3 Wisconsin
• #4 Ohio State
• #5 Nebraska, Indiana
• #6 Purdue
• #8 Iowa, Maryland
• #11 (last four in / play-in game) Minnesota
• Next four out, Northwestern

In starting to compile our tier-based projection spreadsheet I noticed that Michigan has an EXTREMELY favorable B1G schedule.  The three road games that they do NOT play this year are all against tier-2 teams that could plausibly beat them.  So that got me thinking, could the Wolverines be the first team since Indiana in 1976 to go all the way undefeated?  

The Wolverines are currently 10-0 with three remaining OOC games.  According to the worldwide leader they have at least a 96.5% chance of winning each of their remaining OOC games so they should obviously get back into conference play in January at 13-0.  Then, as mentioned above, they do not have to travel to Columbus, Lincoln, or West Lafayette so their only projected conference losses would be in Madison and East Lansing.  If they can manage to win those two and avoid upsets they would head into the B1G Tournament in Chicago at 20-0/31-0.  

Assuming that Michigan wins the road games in Madison and East Lansing and all the other games go as projected (I know they won't, but just for entertainment), the B1G Tournament seedings would be:

• 20-0 Michigan
• 15-5 Nebraska
• 14-6 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
• 14-6 Wisconsin
• 13-7 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against UMD)
• 13-7 Purdue
• 12-8 Indiana
• 11-9 Maryland
• 7-13 Northwestern
• 6-14 Penn State
• 5-15 Iowa
• 4-16 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over MN based on record against NU)
• 4-16 Minnesota
• 2-18 Illinois

Thus, Michigan's B1G Tournament match-ups would be:

Friday, March 15:
The Wolverines would play the #8/9 winner of Maryland/Northwestern at 12:30 on BTN.  

Saturday, March 16:
Assuming that they won on Friday, the Wolverines would play the winner of Friday's game between Wisconsin and the MSU/RU/MN winner at 1pm on CBS.  

Sunday, March 17:
Assuming they won on Saturday, the Wolverines would play in the CG against UNL/tOSU/PU/IU/PSU/IA/IL at 3:30 on CBS.  

[medinabuckeye1]

So we decided to leave Nebraska and MInnesota where they were, and leave that an upset.  I was on the fence on both and made them 2/5, but I think they could easily be 3/4, and Minnesota's home win over the Huskers already would verify that.

I didn't consider that to be a decision.  I considered these tiers to be very much tentative and I was looking for thoughts/comments before I move on with setting up the whole thing.  

[Entropy]

Thoughts on tiers:
A few questions:
In the past our tier-based projections have been based on the theory that a team would lose road games against teams in their tier and the two tiers below.  Ie, on a 26 game double-round-robin schedule Michigan would go 19-7 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools and the two tier-3 schools.  Similarly, all of the tier-2 schools would go 16-10 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, the tier-3 schools, and the three tier-4 schools.  The last few years home court seems to be less important so I'm thinking we should switch to just the adjacent tiers.  Ie, on a 26 game double-round robin schedule Michigan would go 21-5 with road losses to the five tier-2 schools.  Similarly, the tier-2 schools would go 19-7 with road losses to the tier-1 school, the other tier-2 schools, and the tier-3 schools.  
Do we have consensus on tiers:

• Michigan
• MSU, UW, tOSU, UNL, PU
• UMD, IU
• IA, PSU, NU
• MN, RU
• IL

no.. UNL is not in the 2nd tier.    They will drop more games like Minn.  

[847badgerfan]

I'm assuming the whole 2 years in conference thing is gone?  The Luke Reckert drama from years past comes to mind, and didn't Bo Ryan block a kid going to Iowa from just sitting out 1 year or something?

Bo initially did, but backed off. Everything is different now, of course. I don't think blocking is allowed anymore. Potter will have to sit for a year (not eligible for play until 2020) unless UW wins an appeal to make him eligible from the start of next season.


The hiccup here is that he attended classes in Columbus this fall. Apparently the NCAA frowns on this whole class thing, which is not surprising given how they treated North Carolina and all that.

[bayareabadger]

Bo initially did, but backed off. Everything is different now, of course. I don't think blocking is allowed anymore. Potter will have to sit for a year (not eligible for play until 2020) unless UW wins an appeal to make him eligible from the start of next season.


The hiccup here is that he attended classes in Columbus this fall. Apparently the NCAA frowns on this whole class thing, which is not surprising given how they treated North Carolina and all that.

I bet he gets that waiver. They hand those out like candy when it’s just one semester, especially if he didn’t play. 
Also, as you said, no blocking. That was not Bo’s best moment.

[ELA]

Bo initially did, but backed off. Everything is different now, of course. I don't think blocking is allowed anymore. Potter will have to sit for a year (not eligible for play until 2020) unless UW wins an appeal to make him eligible from the start of next season.


The hiccup here is that he attended classes in Columbus this fall. Apparently the NCAA frowns on this whole class thing, which is not surprising given how they treated North Carolina and all that.

Since he didn't play, I have to imagine he'd get that waiver.  Granted MSU seems to get them with greater ease than just about anyone somehow.

[medinabuckeye1]

How favorable/unfavorable are Michigan's/Purdue's schedules?  It is fairly extreme:

Michigan:
If you look at the way I have it set up for now (looks like it will be changing) we project that Michigan would go 21-5 in a double-round-robin.  On average, a team projected go to 21-5 should miss 4.84 wins and 1.15 losses.  Michigan misses an "extra" 1.85 losses.  Even missing four wins and two losses would be strongly favorable but missing three wins and only three losses moves Michigan's projected final winning percentage up from an already lofty 0.808 to a stratospheric 0.900.  

Purdue:
We project that Purdue would go 19-7 in a double-round-robin.  On average, a team projected to go 19-7 should miss 4.38 wins and 1.61 losses.  Purdue misses an extra 1.62 wins.  That knocks their projected final winning percentage down from 0.731 to only 0.650.  

[medinabuckeye1]

On the subject of tiers in general, tier-2 Nebraska lost on the road to tier-5 Minnesota.  It has been suggested that we move Nebraska down to tier-3 and Minnesota up to tier-4.  That would eliminate the Nebraska/Minnesota upset.  Are there any objections?  

[847badgerfan]

I'm thinking to hold off a little while longer. Let the non-conference play out and then develop the tiers in full by the start of conference play (the real start).