2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

The rest of the games played so far:

• Tier-1 Michigan beat Tier-2 Purdue at home, ok
• Tier-1 Michigan beat Tier-4 Northwestern on the road, ok
• Tier-2 Ohio State beat Tier-4/5 Minnesota at home, ok
• Tier-2 Ohio State beat Tier-6 Illinois at a neutral site, ok
• Tier-2/3 Nebraska beat Tier-6 Illinois at home, ok
• Tier-2 Michigan State beat Tier-5 Rutgers on the road, ok
• Tier-2 Michigan State beat Tier-4 Iowa at home, ok
• Tier-2 Purdue beat Tier-3 Maryland at home, ok
• Tier-2 Wisconsin beat Tier-3 Iowa on the road, ok
• Tier-2 Wisconsin beat Tier-5 Rutgers at home, ok
• Tier-3 Indiana beat Tier-4 Northwestern at home, ok
• Tier-3 Indiana beat Tier-4 Penn State on the road, UPSET
• Tier-3 Maryland beat Tier-4 Penn State at home, ok

So moving Nebraska to tier-3 and Minnesota to tier-4 leaves us with just one upset, IU over PSU at PSU.  I didn't watch it but it looks like it was reasonably close with Indiana winning by just two points so we should more-than-likely just let that ride as an upset.  

[ELA]

I'm thinking to hold off a little while longer. Let the non-conference play out and then develop the tiers in full by the start of conference play (the real start).

Are there any games left that tell us anything?  I thought teams were just coasting at this point until NYD.

[medinabuckeye1]

Are there any games left that tell us anything?  I thought teams were just coasting at this point until NYD.

Are we completely convinced that Illinois is bad enough to warrant their own tier at the bottom.  I realize that their record is bad but most of their losses aren't THAT bad.  I admit up front that I haven't watched five minutes of Illinois basketball this year so I'm asking for thoughts not being argumentative.  Thoughts?  

[ELA]

Maybe not.  KenPom has the whole conference in the top 56, then Illinois and Rutgers down at 103 and 107.  So maybe 5 tiers, with them together at the bottom.  Neither of them looks awful.

[847badgerfan]

Are there any games left that tell us anything?  I thought teams were just coasting at this point until NYD.

Actually, there are quite a few decent/good games left on the docket.

https://bigten.org/confschedule.aspx/2018-19/mbb?path=mbball

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (39 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

• Duke (1)
• MICHIGAN (3)
• Gonzaga (2)
• Kansas (4)
• MICHIGAN STATE (10)
• Virginia (5)
• Tennessee (12)
• Nevada (7)
• Auburn (6)
• North Carolina (11)
• OHIO STATE (14)
• Virginia Tech (9)
• Texas Tech (8)
• WISCONSIN (13)
• NEBRASKA (15)
• Florida State (16)
• Buffalo (18)
• Cincinnati (20)
• Oklahoma (24)
• PURDUE (17)
• INDIANA (-)
• Villanova (23)
• Houston (-)
• Mississippi State (-)
• Louisville (-)

• 26. Maryland (25)
• 37. Iowa (34)
• 45. Northwestern (54)
• 48. Penn State (47)
• 57. Minnesota (63)
• 86. Rutgers (70)
• 111. Illinois (105)

[ELA]

Tell you what, I'm rooting for a lot of chalk Wednesday and Thursday, because that could set up for a really awesome weekend at the Big Ten tourney.  Have we ever gone this strong 1-8?  And that's excluding Iowa who is as dangerous as anyone offensively.

[ELA]

Penn temporarily ends Villanova's Big 5 dominance.  Villanova isn't very good this year, but this Penn team is fun to watch.  Ton of motion of offense.

[MichiFan87]

Penn is legitimately decent. They already beat Miami (FL) and only lost to Kansas State and Oregon State on neutral site games. Barring further upsets they should get a 13/14 seed to have a chance to make an upset run, especially if they at least split at Toledo, New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, and Temple.

Yes, Villanova is/was overrated, and North Carolina probably still is, too (we'll see when they face Gonzaga before their ACC schedule), but I see Michigan at 16-4 in the BigTen (@MSU / IA / WIS / IND being the toughest games... as I said before, missing @NEB / OSU / PUR is fortunate), which should still be good enough for a 1/2 seed even if they lose on Saturday in the BigTen Tournament.

[Anonymous Coward]

With Michigan's defense beginning to slowly come back to earth, I wonder if their rankings will begin to overvalue them. Massey is Massey, but that's what prompts this post.
To me this is a #4 or #5 team nationally. Lots of talk of them ("if the season ended today") being a 1-seed without discussion, and I think that's too much. They're on that fringe (and I'd probably put them ahead of Tennessee and/or UVa) but clearly behind Kansas/Gonzaga/Duke to me.

[MichiFan87]

Time will tell.... The Norfolk State and Holy Cross games still weigh down the offense in Kenpom somewhat (though #17 is nothing to complain about), but South Carolina certainly certainly exposed some defensive weaknesses, and even after that Kenpom still ranks Michigan's defense #1. I think the practice time and easy remaining non-con games will help ensure the defense is ready for anything (though of course I thought the same thing with the football team after the Indiana game, and clearly that didn't happen, but I have more confidence in Yaklich than Brown, with all due respect to him).... Again, time will tell....

[847badgerfan]

Brad Davison has denied that he hit Joey Hauser intentionally the other night in Milwaukee. In his first chance at an interview, he, as well as his teammates and Coach Gard, are saying it was a bang-bang play and the contact was incidental. This, and given that Davison and Hauser have known each other since birth, I believe him.

[medinabuckeye1]

It is my intention that this will be the last update until we have updated consensus tiers in early January.  At this point our tiers are:

• Michigan
• Wisconsin, MSU, tOSU, PU
• UNL, IU, UMD
• MN, NU, IA, PSU
• RU, IL

So far there has been one upset, IU's win at PSU.  

Projected final standings/B1G Tournament seeds:

• 18-2 Michigan
• 15-5 Wisconsin
• 14-6 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over tOSU based on record against Michigan)
• 14-6 Ohio State
• 13-7 Purdue
• 12-8 Indiana (wins H2H tiebreaker over UNL, no game in Lincoln)
• 12-8 Nebraska
• 10-10 Maryland
• 7-13 Minnesota
• 6-14 Iowa (wins tiebreaker over NU based on record against the 12-8 teams)
• 6-14 Northwestern
• 5-15 Penn State
• 4-16 Illinois (wins H2H tiebreaker over RU, no game in Picastaway)
• 4-16 Rutgers

B1G Tournament match-ups at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Northwestern vs #14 Rutgers, 3pm on BTN
• #12 Penn State vs #13 Illinois, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14:

• #5 Purdue vs NU/RU, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Indiana vs PSU/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Nebraska vs #10 Iowa, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Michigan vs UMD/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Wisconsin vs UNL/IA, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Michigan State vs IU/PSU/IL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Ohio State vs PU/NU/RU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• M/UMD/MN vs tOSU/PU/NU/RU, 1pm on CBS
• UW/UNL/IA vs MSU/IU/PSU/IL, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• M/UMD/MN/tOSU/PU/NU/RU vs UW/UNL/IA/MSU/IU/PSU/IL, 3:30pm on CBS

[betarhoalphadelta]

It is my intention that this will be the last update until we have updated consensus tiers in early January.  

Have you ever tracked the accuracy of the initial tiers vs what we end up with as the season progresses?