2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

The quality of the refs in the B1G is embarrassing.  I can't remember a time when the whole league has been plagued by such crappy officiating.

It's not football, no conference affiliation for refs.

[ELA]

Early bracket tip, I heard that #18 in KenPom defensive efficiency is the lowest for any national champ in the KenPom era (since 2002)

So what top teams should you be looking to avoid?  The following current Bracketology top 4 seeds are outside the top 18: Gonzaga (#24), Purdue (#38), Tennessee (#41), Marquette (#43) and LSU (#56)

And what lower seeded teams may have what it takes to make a run?  10-seed VCU (#4), 6-seed Kansas State (#7), 9-seed Florida (#10), 7-seed Washington (#12), 12-seed Clemson (#15) and 10-seed Ohio State (#17)

[bayareabadger]

That was a joke, but apparently Indiana does have the "best" FT defense in the nation, at 62.4%

Wisconsin and Michigan are tied for 2nd in the Big Ten, #16 nationally, at 66.0%.  So yesterday was ripe for some poor FT shooting.
Out of curiosity, North Dakota is worst at 78.5%.  How is that even possible?  Only three teams shoot better than that, but at least there, it's the same guys, so maybe you just have a good collection of FT shooters.  How do you wind up having your opponents, across a 30 game (maybe 15ish team) sample size, shoot that well against you.

I noticed IU was no. 2 on that front before yesterday’s game. 
I am displeased my Alma mater helped that. 

[ELA]

One of these times, we're going to watch him stroke out on the sideline. He needs to disappear for a while and deal with his anger problems.

Suspended 2 games by Iowa

[fezzador]

It’s rare to see guys move up these days. The NBA draft is picking so much on potential that if you stay for another year or two and fall off that perceived progression forecast you will slide or stay flat. For any of the three mentioned if a 1st round grade is likely its hard to see them improving on that in any significant way with another year.

If you want to do it because you like college and want to take another run at a conference or tournament championship that is fine, but the eyes better be open to lost earning potential.

Well the NBA brass is toying with the idea of bringing back the "none and done" rule.  I never really liked the prospect of high school kids going straight to the pros, but it's better than the one-and-done mess we have today.
Call me selfish and unrealistic, but I'd love to have college degrees become a requirement for going pro in football and basketball.  I would say the same for baseball, but it has by far the best minor league system in sports, and most college baseball players do it for the love of the game anyway (I'm pretty sure the percentage of NCAA baseball players with realistic pro expectations is even smaller than football or basketball).  And hockey is like 80% Canadian, so any collegiate requirements would be a useless gesture.

[medinabuckeye1]

In theory we should consider moving Wisconsin down to tier-3.  

The Badgers have been involved in five upsets.  One was the win at Iowa way back on November 30.  The other four were losses:

• vs MN on 1/3 (UW also won at MN so whatever)
• vs Purdue on 1/11
• vs MSU on 2/12
• @ IU on 2/26

The difference between tier-2 (where they are now) and tier-3 is the projected result in home games against tier-1 teams and road games against tier-4 teams.  Those are:

• vs PU, L
• vs MSU, L
• vs M, W
• @ IL, W
• @ tOSU, 3/10
• @ MN, W

So the Badgers are 3-2 in those games but they also have one additional "upset" win (@IA) and two additional "upset" losses (vMN, @IU).  

In tier-2 the Badgers are -3 with the one upset win and the four upset losses.  In tier-3 they would be +2 with four upset wins (@IA, vM, @IL, @MN) and two upset losses (vsMN, @IU).  

If Wisconsin suffers another upset they will definitely need to be moved down but if that happens at Ohio State on 3/10 it will be a moot point because the season will be over.  

Other teams outside of +/-1:

• Tier-1 Michigan is -3
• Tier-4 Ohio State is +2

Michigan, it seems to me, is mostly just a product of being in a high tier and consequently having a lot of opportunities for negative variance.  

Ohio State and Illinois split their series with Illinois winning in Columbus and Ohio State beating Illinois in the United Center.  Both of those are "upsets" no matter what.  Then the Buckeyes have two wins that are positive upsets for them as a tier-4 team but would not be upsets if we moved them to tier-3 (@IU, @UNL) and two games that are not upsets now but would be negative upsets if we moved them up (vUMD, @RU).  

Ohio State remains as they have been for over a month, in something of a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4.  They are +2 in tier-4 but if we moved them up to tier-3 they would be -2 so they'll stay where they are for now but if they win at Northwestern on 3/6 they'll need to be moved up.  

Explanation for Ohio State:  The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-2 teams and road games against tier-5 teams:

• v UW, 3/10
• v UMD, L
• @ RU, L
• @ IU, W
• @ NU, 3/6
• @ UNL, W

As you can see, the Buckeyes are 2-2 with two more to play while the two Illinois games are both upsets (one each way) no matter what.  

[847badgerfan]

I'd support dropping UW a tier. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd support dropping UW a tier.

As per usual, it is always the fans of the school in question that support the lower tier.  I should check myself vis-a-vis Ohio State.  I need input from non-Ohio State fans:  Should Ohio State stay in tier-4 at +2 or move to tier-3 where they would be -2?

[847badgerfan]

As per usual, it is always the fans of the school in question that support the lower tier.  I should check myself vis-a-vis Ohio State.  I need input from non-Ohio State fans:  Should Ohio State stay in tier-4 at +2 or move to tier-3 where they would be -2?

I'd leave OSU for now, to be honest.

[Anonymous Coward]

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd leave OSU for now, to be honest.

Ok, thanks for the input.  That is what I was thinking but I wanted at least one non-tOSU fan opinion.  
It makes a difference because two of tOSU's three remaining games would be wins in tier-3 and losses in tier-4 (@NU, vUW).  
Moving Ohio State up would cause the following changes:

• Wisconsin's projected record would move to 13-7 from 14-6.  This doesn't change seeding because the Badgers are projected to tie with Michigan at 14-6 and they lose that tie. 
• Ohio State's projected record would improve to 10-10 from 8-12.  This moves the Buckeyes up to the #7 seed and the Illini down to the #8 seed.  This would actually substantially help the conference because it would create the possibility that both bubble teams (tOSU and MN) could win their first BTT game.  As it is now, tOSU and MN are projected to finish 8th/9th and play each other on Thursday in the BTT.  
• Northwestern's projected record would move to 4-16 from 5-15.  This would move the Wildcats from a tie (that they lose) with Nebraska to a tie (that they lose) with Penn State so it would move PSU up to the #13 seed and NU down to the #14 seed.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Various mathematical/practical possibilities:

Only MSU, PU, M, UMD, and UW are mathematically in the conference championship hunt.  As a practical matter it is just Purdue and the two Michigan schools and even there Michigan's odds are pretty long because they are a game down AND have the toughest remaining schedule.  

Michigan State has clinched a double-bye and will start BTT play on Friday.  The worst they could do is 14-6 and tied with Wisconsin for 4th/5th and they would win that tie.  

Only PU, M, UMD, UW, and Iowa are alive for the other three double-byes.  Ohio State is in 7th but can do no better than 11-9 which would be no better than tied with Wisconsin for 5th/6th (tOSU would win that tie).  

Ohio State has clinched that they will be one of the six B1G teams to start BTT play on Thursday.  They cannot get a double-bye to start on Friday (see above).  They also will not have a Wednesday game because the worst they could do would be 8-12 which would be no worse than a four-way tie for 10th/11th/12th/13th with UNL, IU, and PSU.  Ohio State would win that tie because they only played each of those schools once and won all three games (@UNL, @IU, vPSU).  Thus, Ohio State has clinched somewhere between the #5 and the #10 seed and as a practical matter they will be 7th, 8th, or 9th barring some extremely unlikely set of upsets.  

After that it gets pretty murky because the bottom half of the conference is pretty bunched up.  Current #8 Minnesota could theoretically do as poorly as 7-13 and tied for last while current #14 Northwestern could theoretically do as well as 7-13 and tied for 8th.  

[mcwterps1]

Looking like a blowout early, as I expected. 

[ELA]

So is PSU suddenly good?  Refs screwed them out of a win over Purdue, then they beat UM, beat Illinois, now crushing Maryland.