In theory we should consider moving Wisconsin down to tier-3.
The Badgers have been involved in five upsets. One was the win at Iowa way back on November 30. The other four were losses:
- vs MN on 1/3 (UW also won at MN so whatever)
- vs Purdue on 1/11
- vs MSU on 2/12
- @ IU on 2/26
The difference between tier-2 (where they are now) and tier-3 is the projected result in home games against tier-1 teams and road games against tier-4 teams. Those are:
- vs PU, L
- vs MSU, L
- vs M, W
- @ IL, W
- @ tOSU, 3/10
- @ MN, W
So the Badgers are 3-2 in those games but they also have one additional "upset" win (@IA) and two additional "upset" losses (vMN, @IU).
In tier-2 the Badgers are -3 with the one upset win and the four upset losses. In tier-3 they would be +2 with four upset wins (@IA, vM, @IL, @MN) and two upset losses (vsMN, @IU).
If Wisconsin suffers another upset they will definitely need to be moved down but if that happens at Ohio State on 3/10 it will be a moot point because the season will be over.
Other teams outside of +/-1:
- Tier-1 Michigan is -3
- Tier-4 Ohio State is +2
Michigan, it seems to me, is mostly just a product of being in a high tier and consequently having a lot of opportunities for negative variance.
Ohio State and Illinois split their series with Illinois winning in Columbus and Ohio State beating Illinois in the United Center. Both of those are "upsets" no matter what. Then the Buckeyes have two wins that are positive upsets for them as a tier-4 team but would not be upsets if we moved them to tier-3 (@IU, @UNL) and two games that are not upsets now but would be negative upsets if we moved them up (vUMD, @RU).
Ohio State remains as they have been for over a month, in something of a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4. They are +2 in tier-4 but if we moved them up to tier-3 they would be -2 so they'll stay where they are for now but if they win at Northwestern on 3/6 they'll need to be moved up.
Explanation for Ohio State: The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the expected result in home games against tier-2 teams and road games against tier-5 teams:
- v UW, 3/10
- v UMD, L
- @ RU, L
- @ IU, W
- @ NU, 3/6
- @ UNL, W
As you can see, the Buckeyes are 2-2 with two more to play while the two Illinois games are both upsets (one each way) no matter what.