2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[betarhoalphadelta]

how about red & white striped bib overalls?

It's like when you try to make a joke about a sensitive or controversial subject... You can do it, but the degree of difficulty is high, and if it's not funny enough  you're screwed.
To get away with those bib overalls you need to be smokin' hot. Hot enough where it doesn't look ridiculous anymore.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think last night's home loss to Iowa may have been the dagger for Indiana's tournament chances.  Lunardi currently has eight B1G teams in.  Six of them are pretty secure:

• 2-seed MSU
• 2-seed Michigan
• 3-seed Purdue
• 5-seed Wisconsin
• 6-seed Maryland
• 6-seed Iowa

Then there is a big gap before the last two, both of which are listed in Lunardi's "last four byes":

• 9-seed Ohio State
• 10-seed Minnesota

Indiana is included in Lunardi's "first four out" and that is it.  

In our tier-based projections we have a similar gap between the top six and everybody else.  The projected top-6 are each projected to finish 13-7 or better in conference and 23-8 or better overall.  Then there is a five-game gap down to 8-12/18-13 Ohio State.  

Ohio State at Indiana on Sunday could be a key game in determining NCAA status for both teams:

• We project the Hoosiers to win but only finish 6-14/15-16.  In theory they could lose and still make it but in practice that would require winning several MUCH tougher games down the stretch.  
• We project the Buckeyes to lose and finish 8-12/18-13.  I think that would be on the bubble but 9-11/19-12 would be a lot better.  

It is early to refer to any game as a "must win" but the IU/tOSU game on Sunday is close to a "must win" for the Hoosiers and not much less important for the Buckeyes.  

[FearlessF]

bib overalls maybe, but not when you're out of school, similar to my jersey policy.  If you are older than the player, don't wear it.    Though my own personal jersey policy is not to own one, until that person is dead  (see  O.J., R Rice, traded players, other scandals, etc.)

bibs are definitely old man gear, pretty much all my grandfathers wore back in the 60s and early 70s 
of course, they wore the traditional blue

[FearlessF]

It's like when you try to make a joke about a sensitive or controversial subject... You can do it, but the degree of difficulty is high, and if it's not funny enough  you're screwed.
To get away with those bib overalls you need to be smokin' hot. Hot enough where it doesn't look ridiculous anymore.

seems only a bit odd to me, that if you're smokin hot, it doesn't matter what you wear
Loooooking Goooooooood!

[medinabuckeye1]

In about a week we are going to start grouping teams as "locks", "need to win BTT", and "bubble".  

As a reminder heading into that, I use those terms literally, ie:
"Lock":  A lock, to me, is a team that could lose every remaining regular season game, get the worst possible BTT match-up and lose that, and would still make the tournament.  

"Need to win BTT":  A team that needs to win the BTT, to me, is a team that could win every remaining regular season game, get the best possible match-ups in the BTT and win all of their BTT games except the CG and still would not make the tournament.  

"Bubble":  Bubble teams, to me, are all the other teams.  

Thus, I don't think any team in the B1G is a lock and I don't think any of them are in need to win BTT territory yet.  

Michigan (10-2/21-2) has the best record but I don't consider them a lock because if they lost out they would head to the BTT at 10-10/21-10 and if they then lost their BTT opener they would finish 10-11/21-11 along with being the losers of nine straight and 10 of their last 11.  They *MIGHT* make the tournament anyway but it wouldn't be a given because that horrible finish just might keep them out.  

Conversely, Penn State (1-11/8-15) has the worst record but I don't consider them to need to win the BTT because if they won out until the BTTCG they would finish 12-12/19-16 and that fantastic finish just might get them in.  

At this point, IMHO, M(10-2/21-2), PU (9-2/16-6), MSU (9-3/18-5), UW (9-3/17-6), and UMD (9-4/18-6) are all on the cusp of becoming locks.  Similarly, PSU (1-11/8-15) and UNL (3-9/13-10) are on the cusp of "need to win BTT" status.  

[Anonymous Coward]

What's the highest ever win total for a Big Ten team turned away from the NCAA tournament? 20? 21, 22? More?

[ELA]

What's the highest ever win total for a Big Ten team turned away from the NCAA tournament? 20? 21, 22? More?

Nebraska had 22 last year.  I have to imagine that's it

[ELA]

"Lock":  A lock, to me, is a team that could lose every remaining regular season game, get the worst possible BTT match-up and lose that, and would still make the tournament.  

I have always agreed with this.  Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish were discussing this, and Norlander is on our side.  Parrish thought that's ridiculous, and that it's a team there is no way you would bet against making it with any odds, that it would take something so unpredictable for them to miss it.  To that, I disagree.  Before the season even started you could say that about Duke, or a couple other teams.  That's what "Should Be In" is for.  Basically if things go even close to what they should do (barring a complete and utter collapse) they are in, even if they have some dropoff.  Lock means lock, you are in literally no matter what you do from here.

[Anonymous Coward]

I also agree about the most stringent/literal definition of "lock." It's clumsy to blur the lines on a category with clear borders, especially when there's an adjacent category ("should be in") to collect the cases falling just outside.

Having said that, based on their record against the top two quadrants, Michigan is probably 0 or 1 wins from lock status. But the fact that I can't type that as a promise and have to include "or" means they can't be a literal lock yet.

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think from the standpoint of sports media, they'll play fast and loose with the definition of "lock" because they want to be as close to first in making projections as possible. If they wait another couple of games [a week+], when teams are true "locks" regardless of the rest of season outcome, they might be stale compared to the 12 other media outlets who have already made their predictions.

[medinabuckeye1]

I also agree about the most stringent/literal definition of "lock." It's clumsy to blur the lines on a category with clear borders, especially when there's an adjacent category ("should be in") to collect the cases falling just outside.

Having said that, based on their record against the top two quadrants, Michigan is probably 0 or 1 wins from lock status. But the fact that I can't type that as a promise and have to include "or" means they can't be a literal lock yet.

Agreed.  A big reason that I'm not quite willing to call them a lock yet is that if they lost out they would finish sub .500 in B1G games (10-10 regular season, 0-1 BTT = 10-11).  Winning even just one more game rectifies that.  With one more win their worst case scenario would improve to 11-10/22-10 and if that isn't a lock it is awfully close.  The ONLY thing holding them back at that point would be the horrible finish but I think their overall record would pull them through.  We project that the Wolverines will win their next two games (vUW, @PSU) and if they do, they will absolutely be a lock this time next week at 12-2/23-2.  

[bayareabadger]

Tied at halftime in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be either nip and tuck thoughout with one team making the plays at the end or Mich would smother. 

We’re halfway to the former. 

[847badgerfan]

Tied at halftime in Ann Arbor. I thought it would be either nip and tuck thoughout with one team making the plays at the end or Mich would smother.

We’re halfway to the former.

I'm only keeping up with the score online. I can't watch it - visiting friends and all that. How do they look? Hopefully the second half team we know and love shows up. 

[bayareabadger]

I'm only keeping up with the score online. I can't watch it - visiting friends and all that. How do they look? Hopefully the second half team we know and love shows up.

I’m in transit and watching what I can. Happ is on one. Shooting not really there. Mich defending well, took advantage of some breakdowns, but UW got away with a few. The game is tight enough UW having six turnovers to four for Mich feels big.