Crazy weekend vis-a-vis the tiers. There were six games on Saturday and Sunday and only one of the five had the expected result:
- Ohio State at Nebraska - Upset
- Northwestern at Wisconsin - as expected
- Illinois at* Maryland - Upset
- Rutgers at Penn State - Upset
- Michigan State at Purdue - Upset
- Iowa at Minnesota - Upset
*I know that this game was actually a neutral site game played at MSG in NYC but Maryland gave up a home game for it so I am treating it as a Maryland home game. FWIW, I did the same thing with the tOSU/IL game in the United Center.
Friday I made a post in which I stated that there had been, to that point, 57 B1G games and nine upsets. That worked out to roughly one upset every six games. Since then there have been seven more B1G games (including Friday's IU/M contest) and five more upsets so now we are at 14 upsets in 64 games or roughly one upset every five games. Additionally, multiple teams are WAY off from their projection.
Here are the current tiers with each team's net upsets:
- Michigan -1, Michigan State -1
- BLANK
- Purdue +2, Maryland -1, Nebraska -3
- Wisconsin EVEN (+2, -2), Iowa -2
- Indiana +1, Ohio State EVEN (+1, -1)
- Minnesota +3, Northwestern +1, Penn State -2
- Rutgers +2 (+3, -1), Illinois +1
My thoughts on moves:
Purdue:
The Boilermakers are at +2 due to a home win over MSU and a road win over Wisconsin. I think we should move them up into the blank tier. That only makes a difference in home games against the Michigan schools (PU is 1-0 with no more to play) and road games against the tier-4 schools (PU is 1-0 with no more to play).
Nebraska:
The Cornhuskers are at -3 due to a road loss to MN, a road loss to RU, and a home loss to tOSU. Moving them down wouldn't eliminate any of those upsets unless we also move Minnesota up (see below).
Iowa is at -2 due to a home loss to UW and a road loss to MN. I don't think we need to move them down because moving MN up will eliminate the MN upset.
Minnesota is at +3 due to a home win over UNL, a road win over UW, and a home win over IA. Moving them up a tier would impact the projection for the following four games:
- vs UW (2/6)
- vs IA Won
- at IL Lost
- at RU (2/24)
The Gophers are 1-1 in those games with two more to play but considering their other two positive upsets I think we should move them up.
Penn State is at -2 due to home losses to RU and IU. I think they have to move down.
Thus, my proposed new tiers are:
- Michigan, Michigan State
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa
- Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers
Thoughts?