2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[MaximumSam]

Tiers could look like that, in kenpom fashion, I think.

Purdue is in pretty good shape.  They are 1 back of MSU, UM, and remaining games are @PSU, Minny, NU, @Maryland, PSU, @Indiana, @Nebraska, Illinois, OSU, at Minny, @NW.
UM: OSU, @Iowa, @Rutgers, Wiscy, @PSU, Maryland, @Minny, MSU, Nebraska, @Maryland, @MSU 
MSU: Indiana, @Illinois, Minny, @Wiscy, OSU, Rutgers, @UM, @Indiana, Nebraska, UM

[847badgerfan]

I would be ecstatic if UW could return to its place in the top 4 of the conference and get a double bye for the BTT. Need to start a new streak on that one, but it's a tough road ahead. 


I've already posted the next 5 games. Beyond that it's IL, @NU, @IU, PSU, Iowa and @OSU, which is a little less daunting than the next 5, but still has 3/5 road games. Road games are hard, no matter where they are, and the first two are 3 days apart. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Updated the Sagarin predictor with newest data. 

For Purdue, this now shows a double-round-robin result of 21-5. However, from that result, we lose all 6 projected wins, which would drop us to 15-5. Add in the Wisconsin upset (still need to figure out how to reflect that visually without a lot of work), and it's 16-6. 

Only deviation from our tier system is that it has Purdue as a 0.22 underdog at Nebraska. However as stated previously, this is based on Sagarin's complete rankings. If I changed this to reflect Sagarin's "recent" rank which weights recent results much more highly, Purdue would be a 10.1 point favorite on the road. 

I think I have an idea on how to add upsets. Excel has a conditional formatting feature where I've determined that I can add a rule that formats the text differently in any cell where the result is known. I.e. use the Purdue@Michigan and the Purdue@Wisconsin games. Essentially I'd set a rule for the cell containing Purdue @ Michigan to format the text in Blue [or another color] if the cell value is positive, and to format the text in Blue, Italic, Strikethrough if the cell value is negative. That way, either way it would show as a completed game, but it would only show as an upset if Michigan won a game that the visitor was projected to win. For Purdue @ Wisconsin, I'd essentially use the same rule, in reverse. Thus if the cell was positive (projected Wisconsin win), it would show Blue/Italic/Strikethrough referencing an upset, whereas if the cell was negative, it would show Blue since the visitor was projected to win.

Only problem is that there are 140 games, and they're roughly half done, and I'm not sure I want to update 70 cells right now lol... 

[medinabuckeye1]

Only problem is that there are 140 games, and they're roughly half done, and I'm not sure I want to update 70 cells right now lol...

Yeah, there is a lot to it.  I use a much simpler system, but mine requires a lot of manual inputs.  Before the season started I entered all 140 games (really 280 because I entered each game for each team so 280 results).  Then when we came up with our initial tiers I put in a lowercase "w" or "l" to indicate a projected win/loss.  As the games are played I replace the lowercase w/l with an uppercase W/L for the actual result.  When I replace a w with a W or an l with a L that is it.  When I need to replace a w with an L and an l with a W then I also add that game to my list of upsets and add in the upsets to the mathematical calculation of projected record.  
The mathematical calculation of record is important to me because it is my double-check.  I calculate projected records two ways:

• I have a cell that adds up all the "W's" and "w's" and "L's" and "l's" and gives me a W/L projection that way.  
• I start with the projected double-round-robin record, subtract the six games not played, add in the upsets and get a calculated W/L projection.  

Then there is another cell for each team that compares the two projections to make sure I don't have any errors.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Lunardi's latest Bracketology has 10, yes TEN B1G teams in the NCAA tournament:

• #1 Michigan State
• #2 Michigan
• #3 Purdue
• #5 Maryland
• #6 Iowa, Wisconsin
• #9 Ohio State, Nebraska
• #10 Indiana
• #11 Minnesota

Per Lunardi, both Indiana and Minnesota are among the "last four byes" and the B1G has no other teams on the bubble.  

I frankly think it is fairly unlikely that we will get that many teams into the tournament in part because I think that it would be difficult for the 7/10 and 8/9 losers in the BTT to get in.  I think there is a good chance for eight because the top six will probably get in regardless of BTT performance and the 7/10 and 8/9 winners have a good chance.  After that it gets difficult.  

Michigan State:
Lunardi has them as the #1 seed but in the West Region.  That suggests that he considers them to be the weakest #1 because the other three (TN in KC, Duke in DC, and UVA in Louisville) are considerably closer to home.  Their first two games would be in Columbus against No. Colorado then the Wash/Cuse winner followed by Regional games in Anaheim most likely against Louisville and Gonzaga.  

Michigan:
The Wolverines are the #2 seed in the South (UVA's) Region.  Their first two games are in Des Moines against Lehigh then the KSU/UCF winner followed by Regional games in Louisville most likely against Marquette and UVA (or not).  

Purdue:
Purdue is the #3 seed in the East (Dook's) Region.  Their first two games are in Tulsa against Loyola-Chicago then the Buffalo/ASU/VCU winner followed by Regional games in DC most likely against Kentucky and Dook.  

Maryland:
The Terps are the #5 seed in the East (Dook's) Region.  I know that @mcwterps1 will be happy about that!  Their first two games are in San Jose against Murray State then the Villanova/Yale winner followed by Regional games in DC mostly likely against Dook and Kentucky.  

Iowa:
Iowa is the #6 seed in the West (MSU's) Region.  Their first two games are in Salt Lake City against Wofford then the Houston/Grand Canyon winner followed by Regional games in Anaheim most likely against Gonzaga and MSU.  

Wisconsin:
The Badgers are the #6 seed in the Midwest (Tennessee's) Region.  Their first two games are in Des Moines against St. Johns then the Kansas/SDST winner followed by Regional games in Kansas City mostly likely against UNC and TN.  

Nebraska:
Nebraska is the #9 seed in the Midwest (Tennessee's) Region.  Their first two games are in Columbus against NCST then the TN/NorfolkSt/Robert Morris winner followed by Regional gams in Kansas City most likely against VaTech and UNC.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are the #9 seed in the South (UVA's) Region.  Their first two games are in Columbia, SC against OU then the UVA/Rider winner followed by Regional games in Louisville most likely against Nevada and Michigan.  

Indiana:
Indiana is the #10 seed in the Midwest (Tennessee's) Region.  Their first two games are in Jacksonville against Auburn then the UNC/Radford winner followed by Regional games in Kansas City most likely against Kansas and Tennessee.  

Minnesota:
The Gophers are the #11 seed in the South (UVA's) Region.  Their first two games are in Tulsa against MissSt then the Marquette/NoTx winner followed by Regional games in Louisville most likely against Michigan and UVA.  

[mcwterps1]

Maryland:
The Terps are the #5 seed in the East (Dook's) Region.  I know that @mcwterps1 will be happy about that!  Their first two games are in San Jose against Murray State then the Villanova/Yale winner followed by Regional games in DC mostly likely against Dook and Kentucky.  

LOL!
He'll never allow it! 

[Brutus Buckeye]

What is the least far fetched path to an upset over the big bad Wolverines tonight?

[Anonymous Coward]

LOL!
He'll never allow it!

Who is "he?"

[mcwterps1]

Who is "he?"

Coach K, of course. 

[Anonymous Coward]

Coach K, of course.

You believe a coach not only speaks to the committee but has real influence over its bracket?

[ELA]

What is the least far fetched path to an upset over the big bad Wolverines tonight?

They struggle offensively, and it turns into a low scoring slug fest, and OSU pulls it out in the end thanks to poor UM FT shooting.

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't know that OSU is this team, but when you think about the best possible theoretical team to challenge Michigan, you'd be talking about a team that (a) can both grab OREBs plus never turn it over and/or (b) pick on Michigan's defense with ~4 elite shooters.

Re: (a), Michigan tends to feast on teams with even average turnovers (because M doesn't much try for OREBs, turnovers are their way to steal extra possessions, and they're talented at getting/not-giving TOs without fouling). Re: (b), if Michigan can match up Simpson, Teske and Matthews on your best shooters and the ones you have left are meh, you'll definitely be underperforming your season in PPP).

[Entropy]

I don't see UNL making the tourney.  Not with how they've played lately

[FearlessF]

I don't like it, but I agree

Happ will have a big night