ELA 130 Team Countdown

[847badgerfan]

Granted those September trips to Pac 8/10/12 schools seem to frequently go poorly for Big Ten schools.

MSU should demand Big Ten or neutral (and not Pac-wanna-be MWC) officials. Maybe Big 12.

I contend any Big Ten school should do this. Pac officials are horrible.

[Cincydawg]

We all see seasons where some team, say Indiana, plays tough games but loses the close ones and ends up 4-8, which could have been 7-5 with a couple of breaks, and another, say Purdue, end up 8-4 but with some razor thin wins over mediocre teams and four considerable losses and with an easier slate than Indiana.  The actual ranking of each should be about the same, perhaps around 50th or so, but they end up spread apart in any full ranking scheme because of record.

In the above, perhaps Indiana lost to OSU 45-35 and Purdue lost 63-9.

I've seen mediocre UGA teams go say 10-3, but the 10 wins were over mediocre teams and they got beat decisively when they played good teams.  The numbers get them ranked, but the reality is that was a so-so team that could easily have been 7-6.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yeah I don't factor in schedule here, this is 100% on paper.  But yes, the margins (IMO) are smaller the farther down you go.  Depending on schedule, I could see a team I have around #40 having a worse record than a different P5 team I have around #60.

That makes a lot of sense, since I haven't seen Purdue yet. I think Purdue is definitely trending up, they'll have a better OL than last year (and better than any under Hazell), but lose a lot on defense. But the schedule does no favors, so I can see them finishing at least 1-2 wins below what they would against the same slate if all games were on neutral fields. They get their easier opponents away, and their toughest opponents at home.

[ELA]

43. West Virginia Mountaineers

#7 in Big XII

This might be the first one where I am absurdly low compared to the consensus.  No surprise when cincy rolls out his Overrated/Underrated poll, who I'm going with in the Overrated.  Will Grier is back, and should be healthy.  He has a dynamic pair of WRs who will both be playing on Sundays in 2019.  But what exactly did West Virginia do last year?  They lost to all 3 Big XII teams who finished ranked.  They lost their bowl game.  They lost to the only decent non conference team they played.  Their best win was probably a 20-16 win at home over 8-5 Iowa State.  Yes, they really tanked once they lost Grier, but it's not like they were even competative without him.  They lost by 14 and 16 to mediocre Texas and Utah teams, and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers put up 31 points in that loss to Oklahoma.  Scoring wasn't the problem.  They gave up 39 ppg over those final three games, and I don't see the quick fix on defense to suggest West Virginia will be anything more again than a decent, middle of the pack Big XII team.  Jabril Robinson will be immediately eligible as a grad transfer from Clemson, but he wasn't exactly an impact player there.  Granted he was also largely blocked on playing time by arguably the most talented defensive line in the nation.  They also add USC grad transfer Kenny Bigelow, although he was previously planning on a medical retirement, so it's unclear where he's at.  They in turn lost along the line, freshman all-American Lamonte McDougle.  The Mountaineers gave up 4.9 ypp on the ground (worst in the Big XII) and 7.7 ypp through the air (3rd worst in the Big XII).  The mental mistakes need to change too.  They were the 3rd most penalized team in the conference a year ago, and had the most turnovers.  Just in the category of weird stats, West Virginia had the 3rd worst 3rd down conversion rate in the Big XII (33.5%) but the best 4th down conversion rate (76.2%).  They had the 3rd best 3rd down defense (66.7%) but the worst 4th down defense (28%).  Not sure what that means, but I found it interesting.  Offensively they lose Justin Crawford, who finished 2nd in the Big XII in rushing, from a rushing offense that still largely struggled.  Kennedy McCoy showed flashed, namely against Oklahoma, but also finished below 3.5 ypc in 4 of their final six games, including 9 carries for 18 yards in the Senior Day loss to Texas.  I think ultimately people buying in on West Virginia are all in on Will Grier.  That's not a bad bet, I've seen him on plenty of Heisman short lists.  If he winds up in New York City, my pick is going to be off.  It will be interesting to see him transform from gritty kid trying to make the most of a second chance, to Baker Mayfield heir apparent, as the Big XII stud quarterback that everyone else loves to hate.
Key Players

QB		Will Grier, Senior
WR		David Sills, Senior
WR		Gary Jennings, Senior
	.
DE		Reese Donahue, Junior
LB		David Long, Junior
S		Dravon Askew-Henry, Senior

[Brutus Buckeye]

Ela loves him some Acc this summer.

There is still ten left on the board, and there hasn't been one since Pitt at 53.

So nearly one quarter of the top 40 will be from that league. Plus Notre Dame.

[Kris61]

43. West Virginia Mountaineers

#7 in Big XII

This might be the first one where I am absurdly low compared to the consensus.  No surprise when cincy rolls out his Overrated/Underrated poll, who I'm going with in the Overrated.  Will Grier is back, and should be healthy.  He has a dynamic pair of WRs who will both be playing on Sundays in 2019.  But what exactly did West Virginia do last year?  They lost to all 3 Big XII teams who finished ranked.  They lost their bowl game.  They lost to the only decent non conference team they played.  Their best win was probably a 20-16 win at home over 8-5 Iowa State.  Yes, they really tanked once they lost Grier, but it's not like they were even competative without him.  They lost by 14 and 16 to mediocre Texas and Utah teams, and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The Mountaineers put up 31 points in that loss to Oklahoma.  Scoring wasn't the problem.  They gave up 39 ppg over those final three games, and I don't see the quick fix on defense to suggest West Virginia will be anything more again than a decent, middle of the pack Big XII team.  Jabril Robinson will be immediately eligible as a grad transfer from Clemson, but he wasn't exactly an impact player there.  Granted he was also largely blocked on playing time by arguably the most talented defensive line in the nation.  They also add USC grad transfer Kenny Bigelow, although he was previously planning on a medical retirement, so it's unclear where he's at.  They in turn lost along the line, freshman all-American Lamonte McDougle.  The Mountaineers gave up 4.9 ypp on the ground (worst in the Big XII) and 7.7 ypp through the air (3rd worst in the Big XII).  The mental mistakes need to change too.  They were the 3rd most penalized team in the conference a year ago, and had the most turnovers.  Just in the category of weird stats, West Virginia had the 3rd worst 3rd down conversion rate in the Big XII (33.5%) but the best 4th down conversion rate (76.2%).  They had the 3rd best 3rd down defense (66.7%) but the worst 4th down defense (28%).  Not sure what that means, but I found it interesting.  Offensively they lose Justin Crawford, who finished 2nd in the Big XII in rushing, from a rushing offense that still largely struggled.  Kennedy McCoy showed flashed, namely against Oklahoma, but also finished below 3.5 ypc in 4 of their final six games, including 9 carries for 18 yards in the Senior Day loss to Texas.  I think ultimately people buying in on West Virginia are all in on Will Grier.  That's not a bad bet, I've seen him on plenty of Heisman short lists.  If he winds up in New York City, my pick is going to be off.  It will be interesting to see him transform from gritty kid trying to make the most of a second chance, to Baker Mayfield heir apparent, as the Big XII stud quarterback that everyone else loves to hate.
Key Players

QB		Will Grier, Senior
WR		David Sills, Senior
WR		Gary Jennings, Senior
	.
DE		Reese Donahue, Junior
LB		David Long, Junior
S		Dravon Askew-Henry, Senior

I’m basically in agreement with this.  There are a lot of WVU fans who are basically taking the approach if Dana can’t win the conference with this group then he never will, but I think that is really optimistic and a little naive.  Although I think this team is going to be more like the 4th or 5th best team in the league as opposed to the 7th.
The defense just wasn’t very good last year and I don’t see a lot of reason to be believe it will be a significantly better this year.  Like you said, the hopes this season fall on the right arm of Grier.  He is easily the best returning QB in the league if not the nation.  I’ll be interested to see where WVU lands in the preseason mags and the two major polls.  
This will be an interesting season in Morgantown.  Holgorsen is entering his 8th season here and keeping WVU respectable in the league but not showing any real signs of challenging the upper echelon.  Even the 10 win, top 20 season in 2016 was tarnished somewhat by the fact that the 3 best teams WVU played beat them an average of nearly 21 points that year.  Some of the natives are getting restless and big offensive producers like Grier, Sills, and Jennings returning will ratchet that up if WVU doesn’t make the Big 12 title game.

[CatsbyAZ]

IMO coaching longevity is more important at a program like WV, Oregon State, or Iowa where there isn't a lot of in-state talent to draw on, and it was good to see the Mountaineers give Holgersen patience, but watching WV throughout his tenure (and seeing them in person last year), they are consistently one of the most undisciplined teams out there. I think some of it goes back to the type of athletic, skill position egos he gears recruiting toward, but it makes WV their own worst enemy when it comes to winning the conference.

How's the OL looking? That'll be the unspoken driver behind how successful Grier will be.

[Kris61]

All and all the OL looks to be in pretty good shape.  Four starters from a unit last year I would classify as decent, but not great.  Better in pass protection than the run game.  The majority of the hand wringing comes on the defensive side of the ball this year.

I couldn’t be anymore on the fence regarding Holgorsen, but he’s just entering year two of his 5 year extension so unless the bottom falls out I don’t expect him to go anywhere.

[Cincydawg]

Ela loves him some Acc this summer.

There is still ten left on the board, and there hasn't been one since Pitt at 53.

So nearly one quarter of the top 40 will be from that league. Plus Notre Dame.

Fascinating indeed.  I think FSU will show a lot of improvement (duh) and Clemson seems to be almost like Bama.  There is a large drop after that though Miami has garnered interest and NCSU and VT had a decent team last year.  Nobody else has caught my eye in the ACC though.  BC?  GT?  UNC?  UVA?  Nope, in my mind.  Wake?  Maryland?  Oops.   QQQz?  Pitt sort of maybe.

Ah, they also have Laville now two.

[ELA]

42. Arizona Wildcats

#7 in Pac 12

It's odd that while their cross state rivals actually seemed to plan their coaching change, it was Arizona, thrown into coaching turmoil with the dismissal of Rich Rodriguez, who was able to land the better replacement.  The Kevin Sumlin hire is a lot like the Rich Rodriguez coaching hire, grab a name that was recently a hot property, that they never could have landed, on his way back down.  It looks like a good hire for a school that would probably take Texas A&M's results under Sumlin.  He's got a turn key program too, that overachieved a year ago and now returns a lot of production.  It starts with Khalil Tate, who was inserted after a 2-2 start, and immdiately won his first 4 starts, 5 of his first 6, completing 63% of his passes, rushing for 201.1 ypg, and accounting for 18 touchdowns.  But he lost 4 of his final 5, including 3 in a row, running for under 40 ypg over the final 3, on under 3.0 ypc.  To Michigan fans that looks very familiar with Rich Rod quarterbacks, coming out like gangbusters, until they get a book on you.  The interesting thing now will be to see where Tate and Sumlin meet.  Sumlin is an offensive guy, but a very different offensive guy from Rodriguez.  Texas A&M averaged 36 passing attempts per game over the past 3 seasons, more than any SEC team except Ole Miss.  Nobody threw the ball less in the Pac 12 last year than Arizona.  Asking Tate to be a guy to throw 35-40 passes a game is a waste of his talents, but Tate can't expect to be a glorified wildcat back back there anymore either.  But there is a reason that most of Tate's big time offers were not to play quarterback.  It will also help if a lot of promising defensive talent takes a step forward.  The Wildcats were awful defensively.  They held Oregon State to "only" 28 points.  That was the only Pac 12 opponent they held to under 30.  They gave up over 40 five times.  But they were very, very young.  They now return 9 starters.  Their best defensive player a year ago was a sophomore.  Their leading tackler was a freshman.  Their best defensive back was also a freshman.  Their leader in sacks?  Yup, a freshman.  They have playmakers all over the field on defense, but it didn't come together.  Too many lapses.  But you can see the potential.  They return 79% of their defensive production, 23rd most in the country.  Only Washington returns more among Pac 12 teams.  The differnce being that Washington's defense last year was actually good.  Perhaps moving on from Rich Rod, notoriously bothered by the fact that he has to field a defense, will help this team take a bigger step forward than expected.
Key Players

QB		Khalil Tate, Junior
WR		Shun Brown, Senior
C		Nate Eldridge, Junior
	.
LB		Colin Schooler, Junior
LB		Tony Fields, Sophomore
CB		Lorenzo Burns, Sophomore

[CatsbyAZ]

Everything for Arizona comes down to Tate staying healthy. That'll be the overarching theme again this season. Hard to think of a team that will be more dependent on a single player going into the season.

I'm also wondering how much Sumlin will get out of the current talent. In this rare case I think he'll be fine with a more laid back approach as opposed his past aggressiveness to try to force things during his volatile times at A&M that led to blown leads, poor player development, falling off in November, and rocky QB transitions.

[Cincydawg]

Arizona strikes me as the kind of team that can upset a powerhouse one week and lose inexplicably to Podunk the next.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Everything for Arizona comes down to Tate staying healthy. That'll be the overarching theme again this season. Hard to think of a team that will be more dependent on a single player going into the season.

I'm also wondering how much Sumlin will get out of the current talent. In this rare case I think he'll be fine with a more laid back approach as opposed his past aggressiveness to try to force things during his volatile times at A&M that led to blown leads, poor player development, falling off in November, and rocky QB transitions.

I think it's more about Tate being able to throw the ball. As ELA says, Sumlin's offense utilizes a mobile QB, but he expects a lot more through the air than RichRod. 
Tate torched Purdue's secondary in the bowl game, but that's because Purdue basically stuffed the box and dared him to do so (and had some crucial coverage mistakes that led to easy long passes). Can Tate do that every week? That's what Sumlin will expect.

[ELA]

41. LSU Tigers

#6 in SEC

Gone are the days when I just trusted LSU to simply reload.  They had SEVEN players leave early for the NFL, joining 9 graduating senior starters from a team that lost 4 games, including at home to Troy, and only beat 2 teams that went to bowls.  Then throw in the disarray of remember Orgeron doesn't know how to be a head coach, sending Matt Canada out the door in spite of scoring 30 or more points in 4 of the final 5 SEC games, and you've got problems.  The Tigers rank #122 in terms of returning production, including only 39% of their offensive production.  Only 6 schools return less, and only Texas Tech among Power 5 schools.  You can count on two things at LSU over this run since Saban was hired, great running backs and great defensive backs.  Other areas have had holes throughout the years, but those two areas have covered for them.  Both positions suffered major losses to the NFL.  The next big name in the secondary might be one of my all time favorites, Andraez "Greedy" Williams.  He better be greedy too, because the Tigers need him making plays all over the field in a back seven that lost both Arden Key and Donte Jackson to the pros a year early.  Running back is a bit trickier.  Nick Brosette is the most experienced returning back, but his 96 rushing yards, placing him 5th on the team last year, doesn't exactly guarantee him the starting job.  As always in Baton Rouge, there are blue chip freshmen waiting to come in and compete, but Chris Curry isn't exactly a can't miss type prospect.  Not to mention he wasn't a guy who graduated early to show up and compete for the job in the spring.  Sophomore Clyde Edwards-Helaire may have ended spring as the #1, but there is no clear answer.  While I think moving on from Canada was short sighted, for the makeup of the 2017 roster, the move to Steve Ensminger may pay off.  While the passing game is every bit as raw as the running game, the talent is more apparent there, and the spring game showed that the Tigers may attack down the field more than we've seen from them...ever.  Justin Jefferson looks like the first LSU receiver since Odell Beckham to be more than just hype.  He looks the part, but LSU has never lacked for receivers who look the part.  Orgeron ended spring ball without naming a starting quarterback, which could be a bad thing, or mean he has plenty of options.  The fact that he just took a visit from Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow this week suggests it's the former.
Key Players

TE		Foster Moreau, Senior
G		Garrett Brumfield, Senior
K		Connor Culp, Sophomore
	.
LB		Devin White, Junior
CB		Greedy Williams, Sophomore
S		John Battle, Senior