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Topic: ELA 130 Team Countdown

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ELA

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #224 on: May 11, 2018, 10:51:58 AM »
48. San Diego State Aztecs
#3 in Mountain West
At this point, San Diego State running backs are becoming like Texas Tech quarterbacks under Mike Leach.  Don't even worry about who is graduating, or the starz value of his replacement, the machine is going to keep on rolling with a name you hadn't previously heard of.  Ronnie Hillman had 1,532 and 1,711 rushing yards respectively in his final two seasons, finishing 10th and 3rd in the nation in rushing.  He was followed by Adam Muema, who had 1,458 and 1,244 yards, finishing top 25 in the nation both years.  Then came Donnel Pumphrey, who had 1,867, then 1,653 and 2,133, winning back to back Mountain West Player of the Year award, and finished 4th, 7th and 1st in the nation respectively.  They only got one year of Rashaad Penny, but it was a special one, with 2,027 yards, giving the school back to back national rushing leaders, from different guys, and their third straight conference player of the year award.  Next in line appears to be Juwan Washington, who got plenty of work last year, averaging 5.9 ypc, picking up 715 rushing yards.  He really picked it up late, averaging 8.4 ypc or better in four of their final six games.  They produced a 2,000 yard rusher running behind an offensive line with four new starters, at one time playing four freshmen together.  That script has flipped with four returning starters for 2018, including a pair of freshmen who were 2nd team All-Conference.  Hell, even this "experienced" group will start 3 sophomores, a junior and a senior most likely, so they'll largely play together in 2018 and 2019, with a bulk again in 2020.  Washington is only a junior too, so absent him going bonkers, this running game could really take off in 2019.  So while it's odd to say, replacing the nation's leading rusher, for the second straight year, shouldn't be a problem.  It's Penny's ability on special teams that will be tougher, and it looks like Washington will take over that dual role.  Christian Chapman just needs to continue to be efficient.  Aside from the New Mexico triple option, no starting quarterback in the conference threw the ball less than Chapman's 18.7 apg.  He completed over 60% of his passes though, had the conference's best TD:INT ratio (13:4), and was third in pass efficiency.  As good as the line was as road graders, they need to improve a lot in pass blocking.  There's no reason a team that passes as sparingly as the Aztecs do, to be giving up the second most sacks in the conference.  The defense was the conference's best a season ago, and while the line has question marks, the back seven should continue to be outstanding.  Tariq Thompson might be the best defensive back in the conference, earning 2nd team all-conference honors last season as only a true freshman, also earning Freshman All-American status.
Key Players
QBChristian Chapman, Senior
TTyler Roemer, Sophomore
GKeith Ismael, Sophomore
.
LBRonley Lakalaka, Senior
STariq Thompson, Sophomore
SParker Baldwin, Senior

bamajoe

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #225 on: May 11, 2018, 01:34:05 PM »
l typically only post homer stuff but imho Michigan now has the best qb in the league and they will be a force. It is like taking a chess game and adding a queen. I  don't think they can beat Ohio but I would not be surprised to see them second in the league.

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #226 on: May 12, 2018, 10:28:32 AM »
One thing I try to do each year is choose the most under rated and over rated teams.  I had NCSU last year as under rated, and that was a so so pick.  I forget now who I had as OR.  Somebody else here did really well.


ELA

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #227 on: May 12, 2018, 03:07:39 PM »
47. Texas A&M Aggies
#8 in SEC

What’s the answer when your plan is to spend your way into being a top flight program, and the plan isn’t working?  Spend more!  That’s Texas A&M’s mentality.  When Kevin Sumlin went 11-2, and finished #5 in the nation in his first season at the school, the plan with the jump to the SEC seemed to be going swimmingly.  The problem was over his next 5 years, he went 19-21 in SEC play, going 3-5 or 4-4 every year, never finishing higher that 4th in his division.  In essence, Texas A&M was being Texas A&M, solid, but not special.  So they are now spending more to be special.  They didn’t bring in the hot mid-major coach, like they did with Sumlin, they hired away a coach from Florida State who won a national championship 4 years earlier.  The first job for Jimbo is settling a quarterback controversy.  Nick Starkle returns after being the starter to finish 2017, however, the guy he replaced, Kellen Mond, also returns.  On paper, there’s no reason not to give Starkle his job back.  He had the better numbers, by far.  But Texas A&M also went 2-5 in the games he played, and it’s clear the ceiling on Mond is much higher.  Plus, by now it’s clear that Jimbo has a type.  He’s going to hedge towards a more mobile quarterback.  At Florida State the last few years he went from Winston to Golson to Francois to Blackman, all mobile quarterbacks.  Even in his first class at Texas A&M, he made a late addition with James Foster, the #12 dual threat QB in the nation, and had Grant Gunnell, the #3 pro style QB in the 2019 class decommit.  So while the smart money right now is on Starkel, it’s clear that the coaching staff would love Mond to go out there and win the job.  Defensively the front is sound, as it seemingly has been forever in College Station.  The secondary still needs work.  They surrendered nearly 60% passing, second worst in the SEC, and that was with a really good pass rush.
Key Players
QBNick Starkel, Sophomore
RBTrayveon Williams, Junior
WRJhamon Ausbon, Sophomore
.
DELandis Durham, Senior
LBTyrell Dodson, Junior
LBOtaro Alaka, Senior

46. Missouri Tigers
#7 in SEC

The story of Missouri football seemed to have been written.  They entered the SEC at the perfect time, on an uptick, while the entire SEC East was down, and lucked their way into a couple of SEC Championship Games.  Since then, they had lost 20 of 27 FBS games, and were off to a 1-5 start which included a blowout loss at home to a Purdue program that had seemingly been down forever.  There were assistant coaches being fired, and players quitting or getting kicked off the team.  They were to be a permanent afterthought.  It’s funny what a little winning will do.  The Tigers finished 2017 on a 6 game winning streak.  No the opponents weren’t impressive, but aside from a 3 point road win at Arkansas, the margins weren’t close either.  They won their other 5 games by 47, 40, 29, 33 and 28, 3 of those being SEC wins.  So what now?  With 9 returning starters on offense, including quarterback Drew Luck, the conference’s top scoring offense, and 2nd most prolific passing attack looks to really be ready to roll.  One of the losses was tailback Ish Witter, but Larry Roundtree, who spelled him last year as a freshman, should actually be even better.  The problem continues to be on defense, which has to kill head coach Barry Odom, who played linebacker for Missouri in the 90s, and has spent his whole coaching career on the defensive side of the ball.  That’s why he fired defensive coordinator Demontie Cross after two games last year, including giving up 43 to FCS Missouri State.  The SEC bowl teams they played continued to put up points, 51 by Auburn, 40 by Kentucky, and 53 by Georgia.  Against the Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt of the world they did ok, but lest anyone believe that was a product of anything other than schedule, they finished by giving up 45 to Arkansas.  After taking over command of the unit himself for the balance of the season, Odom handed the coordinating job off to Ryan Walters, who had been defensive backs coach.  It’s a quick rise for Walters, who was still playing at Colorado a decade ago, and was a mid-major position coach just 3 years ago.  But the coaching turnover didn’t just hit the defense, that potent offense has to continue without coordinator Josh Heupel, who was hired as head coach at Central Florida, where the sole hiring criteria seems to be “turn of the century Big XII QB turned OC.”  Instead of promoting from within there, Odom hired Derek Dooley away from his 5 year stint as receivers coach for the Dallas Cowboys.  It’s Dooley’s first shot back in college football since being run out of Knoxville in 2012.  The talent remains in Columbia, but the Heupel to Dooley transition is a major downgrade in my book.  For a team that is going to have to win shootouts, that uninspired hire will be enough to prevent any meaningful step forward.
Key Players
QBDrew Lock, Senior
RBLarry Roundtree, Sophomore
TEAlbert Okwuegbunam, Sophomore
.
DTTerry Beckner, Senior
LBCale Garrett, Junior
CBAdam Sparks, Sophomore

ELA

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #228 on: May 12, 2018, 03:08:20 PM »
One thing I try to do each year is choose the most under rated and over rated teams.  I had NCSU last year as under rated, and that was a so so pick.  I forget now who I had as OR.  Somebody else here did really well.


I had LSU as overrated, which looked great for a while, but then they mildly recovered.  I had Colorado as underrated, and that pick was awful

ELA

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #229 on: May 14, 2018, 09:17:54 AM »
Sunday

45. Memphis Tigers
#2 in American
Do quarterbacks keep growing on trees for Memphis?  The school had only three quarterbacks ever drafted into the NFL, and only one since 1961.  Then they put Paxton Lynch into the first round in 2016, and followed him with Riley Ferguson, who probably should have been drafted, and instead signed with Tampa Bay.  Having those two guys over the past four years is why the Tigers went to four consecutive bowl games, and won their first conference championship since 1971.  This was a program that had three straight double digit loss seasons as recently as 2009-11.  So who is next?  Will it be the next undervalued homegrown kid, ala Paxton Lynch, in sophomore David Moore.  Or is it the next Power 5 transfer, bluechip redemption project, ala Riley Ferguson, in Arizona State transfer Brady White.  While Anthony Miller left for the NFL, there are still plenty of weapons to work with, for whoever wins the job.  While Ferguson and Miller were the brand names last year, aside from them, Memphis was very young throughout the two deep, so the dropoff won’t be bad at all.  Darrell Henderson finished 4th in the conference in rushing as only a freshman, even though he missed three games.  He had gone over 100 yards in 5 straight games to finish the season.  If Mike Norvell can figure out a way to work Tony Pollard into the offense, they’ll really form a problem.  Pollard has won AAC Special Teams Player of the Year in each of his first two seasons, posting 4 kick return touchdowns last year.  They got him 29 carries for 222 yards (7.7 ypc) and 34 catches for 501 yards (14.7 ypc) a year ago, so his splash potential is not limited to kick returns, but they need to get those touches up.  JUCO WR Antonio Gibson could factor in immediately too.  It’s easy to forget how good Memphis was a year ago, playing in a conference with the national champs*, but Memphis gave UCF everything they could want in the AAC Championship Game, finally losing in double overtime, 62-55.  If the Tigers had won that game, they likely would have been the ones playing Auburn on New Years Day.  Back to back games in mid-October, at home against UCF, and on the road at Missouri, will define success for the team this year.
Key Players
RBDarrell Henderson, Junior
RBTony Pollard, Junior
TEJoey Magnifico, Junior
.
LBCurtis Akins, Senior
LBAustin Hall, Junior
CBT.J. Carter, Sophomore

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #230 on: May 14, 2018, 09:25:29 AM »
I had a notion that Mizzou might be decent this year, as in third in the SEC East, and then I realize that is about where you have them (barely ahead of Kentucky).  It is fascinating to observe the decline of the SEC East (and overall for that matter) while also pondering the number of NFL players from the league.  I'm pretty sure we'd agree it comes down to coaching, not talent, and the coaching appears suspect, though that can be somewhat circular in that bad coaches have bad records etc.

But ELA has the #7 team in the SEC well outside being "ranked" (meaning top 25).  We've seen years with 7-8 SEC teams ranked, at least early in the season, and at times in the final poll.

The 6 teams he has yet to "rank" appear to be Bama (duh), UGA, USCe, LSU, Auburn, and Miss State?  I'm guessing he ends up with MSU, LSU, and USCe 25-40 and Auburn perhaps at 18 or so, leaving only two teams top ten.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #231 on: May 14, 2018, 12:11:17 PM »

If my calculations are correct, contained within ELA's Top 44 will be 10 Acc, 8 Big Ten, 8 Pac 12, 7 Big Xii, 6 SEC, 2 Mwc, 1 Indy, 1 Aac and 1 CUsa.
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

ELA

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #232 on: May 14, 2018, 02:58:11 PM »
44. Arizona State Sun Devils
#8 in Pac 12
While they may not regret it this year, when Arizona State is in a bad way three years from now, they can point to one of the most inexplicable head coaching changes I can recall.  Was Todd Graham lightning the world on fire?  No.  But he had been to a bowl game in five of his six years in Tempe, reaching the Pac 12 Championship game in 2013, and finishing in the top 15 in 2014.  Just getting that 2017 roster to a bowl game was probably one of the more under the radar good head coaching jobs of last year.  The flip side to that is that his best years were early in his tenure, with someone else's players, and that the fact that the roster was so bad in Year 6 has to fall on him.  So simply removing Graham wouldn't have been totally indefensible, but then bringing in Herm Edwards, a guy with a 54-74 NFL coaching record, who hasn't coached in a decade, and whose only experience in college football was as DB coach for San Jose State in the late 80s, is.  They are trying a different model, but I don't see how this goes well.  On the spectrum of getting guys with NFL head coaching experience to take college head coaching jobs spectrum, this ain't Carroll or Harbaugh, it may even break the needle on the Lovie Smith/Al Groh side of that meter.  They don't have a single kid committed for their 2019 class yet, so that NFL experience isn't exactly selling well on the trail thus far.  For this year though, assuming the staff can handle the Xs and Os side, the team could be ok.  The Sun Devils leaned on a pair of big time backs last year, and with Damario Richard (Falcons) and Kalen Ballage (Dolphins) now both on NFL rosters, it both made sense to do so, and makes sense to abort that plan this year.  Arizona State dropped by about 4 passing attempts per game last year, but the 2018 team was built more to Graham's liking, a quarterback entering his third year as a starter, with a pair of dynamic receivers.  Rob Likens was promoted from WR coach and passing game coordinator, to offensive coordinator, so it seems likely that the offensive philosophy won't change.  The plan seems to be that Edwards' finger prints won't be on the program at that level...I guess?  The defense looks pretty good along the back, but the front was decimated by graduations, and the early departure of Christian Sam.  When you lose 7 of your 10 leading tacklers, and two of the returnees are cornerbacks, that means you have to replace a ton of production, namely your quarterback pressure.  Only USC and Washington generated more sacks a year ago than Arizona State; but Latu (7), Calhoun (6.5), Wicker (6), Smallwood (4), and Sam (3) have all graduated or left for the NFL.  The intriguing guy to watch is linebacker Koron Crump.  Crump led the nation in sacks after Week 2 last year with 4, before suffering a season ending knee injury.  He was granted another year of eligibility, but hasn't been cleared to practice yet.  If he returns to anything close to what he was, that is a major boost.  It's also a major if.
Key Players
QBManny Wilkins, Senior
WRN'Keal Harry, Junior
WRKyle Williams, Junior
.
LBJay Jay Wilson, Senior
CBChase Lucas, Sophomore
CBKobe Williams, Junior

CatsbyAZ

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #233 on: May 15, 2018, 02:12:32 AM »
Surprised ASU made it into the 40s when they could very well level off into the 70s and finish below Colorado given the uncertainty of their new hire. I was dead set against Herm's hiring but since getting the initial reaction out of my system have more or less gotten used to it. So far the coach-as-CEO model is settling in as planned, but going into the season the OL is thin (as always seems to be the case) and the defense sheds a boatload of not only production but guys like Calhoun and Smallwood who had an instinct for causing trouble for opposing QBs. 

It helps that Wilkins brings a lot of stability to the QB position but given the suspect OL and the losses at RB the offense comes down to him getting the ball downfield to a pretty good WR corps. And remembering Herm's time coaching the Jets & Chiefs I don't have much faith in the new staff's in-game coaching prowess. I think we'll see bland, overly risk averse game plans.

847badgerfan

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #234 on: May 15, 2018, 07:04:58 AM »
I don't know that you can lump Al Groh and Lovie into the same pile. I mean, Lovie took a team to a Super Bowl and lost, just like the guy in Ann Arbor.
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Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #235 on: May 15, 2018, 07:31:06 AM »
I think there is a slim margin between 40th and 70th.  That probably is one game lost or won?  6-7 versus 5-7 perhaps for P5 teams?  Maybe 4-8.

My general guess is that top ten means you finished with 10 wins minimum.
Top 20 = 8-9 wins (counting bowl outcomes.
Top 30 = 7-8 wins, etc.

You can be 8-5 and make the top 25 if you win the bowl game and have a couple decent wins.    So, 40th projects something like 7-6 or 6-7 if I'm close here.


ELA

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #236 on: May 15, 2018, 10:08:25 AM »

I think there is a slim margin between 40th and 70th.  That probably is one game lost or won?  6-7 versus 5-7 perhaps for P5 teams?  Maybe 4-8.

My general guess is that top ten means you finished with 10 wins minimum.
Top 20 = 8-9 wins (counting bowl outcomes.
Top 30 = 7-8 wins, etc.

You can be 8-5 and make the top 25 if you win the bowl game and have a couple decent wins.    So, 40th projects something like 7-6 or 6-7 if I'm close here.


Yeah I don't factor in schedule here, this is 100% on paper.  But yes, the margins (IMO) are smaller the farther down you go.  Depending on schedule, I could see a team I have around #40 having a worse record than a different P5 team I have around #60.
I know ASU scares me as an MSU fan this year.  Granted those September trips to Pac 8/10/12 schools seem to frequently go poorly for Big Ten schools.

DevilFroggy

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Re: ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #237 on: May 15, 2018, 10:11:23 AM »
40s is fair for ASU. Wilkins + N'Keal Harry (who will be drafted in the first round after the season) will help out a young RB group led by promising true sophomore Eno Benjamin.

Defense the big question is linebackers. The DL and secondary I think will actually be decent/serviceable.
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