Granted those September trips to Pac 8/10/12 schools seem to frequently go poorly for Big Ten schools.
Yeah I don't factor in schedule here, this is 100% on paper. But yes, the margins (IMO) are smaller the farther down you go. Depending on schedule, I could see a team I have around #40 having a worse record than a different P5 team I have around #60.
43. West Virginia Mountaineers#7 in Big XIIThis might be the first one where I am absurdly low compared to the consensus. No surprise when cincy rolls out his Overrated/Underrated poll, who I'm going with in the Overrated. Will Grier is back, and should be healthy. He has a dynamic pair of WRs who will both be playing on Sundays in 2019. But what exactly did West Virginia do last year? They lost to all 3 Big XII teams who finished ranked. They lost their bowl game. They lost to the only decent non conference team they played. Their best win was probably a 20-16 win at home over 8-5 Iowa State. Yes, they really tanked once they lost Grier, but it's not like they were even competative without him. They lost by 14 and 16 to mediocre Texas and Utah teams, and lost by 28 to Oklahoma. The Mountaineers put up 31 points in that loss to Oklahoma. Scoring wasn't the problem. They gave up 39 ppg over those final three games, and I don't see the quick fix on defense to suggest West Virginia will be anything more again than a decent, middle of the pack Big XII team. Jabril Robinson will be immediately eligible as a grad transfer from Clemson, but he wasn't exactly an impact player there. Granted he was also largely blocked on playing time by arguably the most talented defensive line in the nation. They also add USC grad transfer Kenny Bigelow, although he was previously planning on a medical retirement, so it's unclear where he's at. They in turn lost along the line, freshman all-American Lamonte McDougle. The Mountaineers gave up 4.9 ypp on the ground (worst in the Big XII) and 7.7 ypp through the air (3rd worst in the Big XII). The mental mistakes need to change too. They were the 3rd most penalized team in the conference a year ago, and had the most turnovers. Just in the category of weird stats, West Virginia had the 3rd worst 3rd down conversion rate in the Big XII (33.5%) but the best 4th down conversion rate (76.2%). They had the 3rd best 3rd down defense (66.7%) but the worst 4th down defense (28%). Not sure what that means, but I found it interesting. Offensively they lose Justin Crawford, who finished 2nd in the Big XII in rushing, from a rushing offense that still largely struggled. Kennedy McCoy showed flashed, namely against Oklahoma, but also finished below 3.5 ypc in 4 of their final six games, including 9 carries for 18 yards in the Senior Day loss to Texas. I think ultimately people buying in on West Virginia are all in on Will Grier. That's not a bad bet, I've seen him on plenty of Heisman short lists. If he winds up in New York City, my pick is going to be off. It will be interesting to see him transform from gritty kid trying to make the most of a second chance, to Baker Mayfield heir apparent, as the Big XII stud quarterback that everyone else loves to hate.Key PlayersQBWill Grier, SeniorWRDavid Sills, SeniorWRGary Jennings, Senior.DEReese Donahue, JuniorLBDavid Long, JuniorSDravon Askew-Henry, Senior
Ela loves him some Acc this summer. There is still ten left on the board, and there hasn't been one since Pitt at 53. So nearly one quarter of the top 40 will be from that league. Plus Notre Dame.
Everything for Arizona comes down to Tate staying healthy. That'll be the overarching theme again this season. Hard to think of a team that will be more dependent on a single player going into the season. I'm also wondering how much Sumlin will get out of the current talent. In this rare case I think he'll be fine with a more laid back approach as opposed his past aggressiveness to try to force things during his volatile times at A&M that led to blown leads, poor player development, falling off in November, and rocky QB transitions.