The SEC Forum at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I really didn't know where to post this.

Here is the timeline as I see it.

Monday 7/25/21  OU/UT notify B12 they are not extending the Grant of Rights
Tuesday 7/26/21  OU/UT send formal request for invitations to SEC, SEC acknowledges. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10008816-texas-oklahoma-request-to-join-sec-in-2025-sec-reportedly-to-discuss-thursday
Thursday 7/29/21 SEC meets to discuss expansion (approve invitations?)
Friday 7/30/21 morning  OU BOR & UT BOR separate meetings to discuss conference affiliation (announce SEC acceptance?)

That is one momentous week!

July 1, 2025.

Everything I have seen says 2022. 
When NU and MU left, their buyout was reduced to $12.5 and they played the next season in B1G/SEC.  I believe aTm's buyout was $12.5 mil also.
Several things come into play.  If one or more of the remaining 8 leave, the conference is dissolved, there are no payouts.  OU and TX both stated they will honor their GOR so they have not left the conference and still have full rights.  They could spike any additions to the conference if the Big 12 tries to force them to stay.
When the 4 members left last time, I believe ESPN/Fox kept the TV contract with little or no reduction and then put in a nice deal when TCU/WVU joined.  I would think they would do something similar this time.

There is one difference now than there was ~10 years ago.  Back then, when the Big 12 was wavering, all the member schools essentially took a poison pill regarding their media rights (2nd and 3rd tier rights).  I don't remember all the details but supposedly they did this to make it really hard for any member to leave without paying a much stiffer penalty.  

I'm obviously going off of memory, and maybe that initial deal has already expired.  I've also heard that UT is going to forgo the balance of the LHN ($150 million), ESPN will then up the contract to the SEC by some other large amount, and voila they have the extra $20-30 million each to leave, and ESPN saves money by killing the LHN which I'm led to believe is a money loser for them and has been.  LHN folds into the SEC network, most likely as SEC West Network, and everybody is happy.  

Does anybody remember the details of the poison pill the Big 12 members took?  

Then that brings me to my next idea.  Since OU/Tex will have to pony up somewhere between $20-30 MM each that could be a potential windfall for what's left of the Big 12.  They still have a good core group of schools, mostly larger state schools and a couple of high profile private schools.  You've got 8 teams left, you need at least 2-4 teams to make yourself whole.  They take the windfall money, throw everything they got into saving the conference, entice a couple of good/great AAC teams with bigger payouts and at the very least name recognition.  The Big 12 will never be what it once was but surely will be ahead of what the AAC is now.  

The XII could do a lot with $40-60MM, assuming they can hold it together long enough to get a few schools on board.  

The problem is the assumption that Big 12 media rights, sans Texas and OU, will be worth more than the AAC's media rights. The Big 12 was already rebuffed by TV when asking to revisit the deal. Without Texas and OU, the media disbursement for the Big 12 may very well fall below that of the AAC.

In that light, I do not expect stable AAC schools to quickly sign over to the Big 12 - if at all. Should the ACC or the PAC12 decide to expand (maybe the Big 10 would kick the tires on ISU or KU), the Big 12 would fail yet again.

I'm not a power broker by any means, but it's hard to predict a future where the Big 12 exists. 

I looked it up. The top AAC schools are much closer to the size of the remaining B12 schools. UH, Cincinnati, UCF are 30,000+ students. The endowments are similar. Honestly I wouldn’t bother with the rest. SMU, Memphis, etc.

You’d need one more, and truthfully there’s not a great next candidate unless you can convince BYU but it is a stretch. WVU go Utah is a long damn way.

Just pick one from whichever makes the most sense. The conference will have an extra $60 MM as the bait. 60 MM divided 8 ways is 7.5 MM above the standard payout but if they were smart they’d use that money to draw in the best of the rest.

Get the schools you named plus the next-best program in the ETZ, and you've got a 3-team neighborhood for WVU.  Memphis might be the closest thing to that.
If you get BYU, then you've got to consider that WVU will be going elsewhere at some point.

P.S.  Is Tulane a worthwhile get, just to get into New Orleans?  How about La. Tech?