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Topic: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season

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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #28 on: September 01, 2021, 02:59:40 PM »
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.


Does anyone disagree with this overall general guess?

I think Alabama will lose one somewhere, because they usually do, although they shouldn't.  Mac Jones was fun to watch last year, I wish we could've gotten to see him in a year that wasn't so weird.  I didn't know until just now he moved on.  

I don't know enough about A&M or Auburn, couldn't say.

LSU is probably overachieving if they hit 7-1.  6-2 or 5-3 seems more right.  Alabama, and I don't know who else but somebody.  Obviously that's an iffy statement to make when I admit I don't know much about some divisional opponents, or Florida either, but I'm basing it strictly off the quality of team I see in Baton Rouge.  Usually a team of this (expected) quality has been good for 5-6 conference wins.  That's in a vacuum and real life doesn't work like that, so grain of salt and all that.  

UGA--we don't play them, so there's one guaranteed win out the window for us :)  If Auburn is as bad as you say, I wouldn't pick them against the Dawgs.  But that game is weird.  So is Florida/UGA, the Cocktail party has made a fool out of me more than once.  

Florida--don't know enough.  They're usually good enough on defense to get 6 conference wins or so.  

I heard Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC now...I looked at their schedule and I don't think they're gonna get a single SEC win.

utee94

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #29 on: September 01, 2021, 03:38:02 PM »
I think Alabama will lose one somewhere, because they usually do, although they shouldn't.  Mac Jones was fun to watch last year, I wish we could've gotten to see him in a year that wasn't so weird.  I didn't know until just now he moved on. 

I don't know enough about A&M or Auburn, couldn't say.

LSU is probably overachieving if they hit 7-1.  6-2 or 5-3 seems more right.  Alabama, and I don't know who else but somebody.  Obviously that's an iffy statement to make when I admit I don't know much about some divisional opponents, or Florida either, but I'm basing it strictly off the quality of team I see in Baton Rouge.  Usually a team of this (expected) quality has been good for 5-6 conference wins.  That's in a vacuum and real life doesn't work like that, so grain of salt and all that. 

UGA--we don't play them, so there's one guaranteed win out the window for us :)  If Auburn is as bad as you say, I wouldn't pick them against the Dawgs.  But that game is weird.  So is Florida/UGA, the Cocktail party has made a fool out of me more than once. 

Florida--don't know enough.  They're usually good enough on defense to get 6 conference wins or so. 

I heard Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC now...I looked at their schedule and I don't think they're gonna get a single SEC win.

So you're assuming Arkansas beats Texas on 9/11?  You could certainly be right about that, although I obviously hope not.

Weird things happen to Texas in FayetteNam.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #30 on: September 01, 2021, 06:00:12 PM »
Arkansas is not an SEC team.  We booted them back to the SWC when they started losing to Big Ten teams back in the aughts.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #31 on: September 01, 2021, 07:12:22 PM »
I lean to thinking LSU is probably more of a 6-2 team, or less, I would alter that.

just1hog

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #32 on: September 02, 2021, 05:41:42 AM »
Mike Mike Mike.... you need to be careful what you're stepping in :) 2014 was a rough year for you and UT, 31-7 in Houston no less. And 50-48 in 3 OTs vs. #1 LSU, ouch, I know that one hurt. :smiley_confused1:

CSP is a better coach than Nutt, his time is coming and soon. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #33 on: September 02, 2021, 08:27:46 AM »
People are so high on LSU and I don't know why.  Replacing both coordinators AGAIN.  Went from 3 QBs down to 1.  And their pass D was worse than most winless teams.
Yes, I'll say that again.  Their pass D was worse than most winless teams, HISTORICALLY.  With Stingley.  

But suddenly they're a 10-2/11-1 team???  Nope.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #34 on: September 02, 2021, 08:45:01 AM »
Upon further review, I think I drank some Koolaid on LSU somewhere along the way.

They do have a lot of talent, but it might not be in the right places.  They could be a team that upsets Bama and then loses to Ole Miss or Arky.

I'm a bit impressed with Arky and what their new coach has done, but they still lack some talent.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #35 on: September 02, 2021, 10:23:05 AM »
And 50-48 in 3 OTs vs. #1 LSU, ouch, I know that one hurt. :smiley_confused1:


The national championship more than made up for it.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #36 on: September 02, 2021, 10:31:24 AM »
People are so high on LSU and I don't know why.  Replacing both coordinators AGAIN.  Went from 3 QBs down to 1.  And their pass D was worse than most winless teams.
Yes, I'll say that again.  Their pass D was worse than most winless teams, HISTORICALLY.  With Stingley. 

But suddenly they're a 10-2/11-1 team???  Nope.

All you're talking about is what was, which is a piss-poor indicator of what will be.  In order to forecast you need to look at what is, and then when talking about previous problems or bright spots it's not a question of what was, but what were the factors involved and how likely are they to repeat?

I wouldn't make any prognostications on Florida because I simply don't know enough about them NOW.  What they did last year is somewhat meaningless, and to the extent it has meaning I have no idea WHY those things went the way they did or how likely it is to repeat.

I'd be much better off asking a fan such as yourself what's going on and what's reasonably expected.  Even if you're wrong, it's going to be a more educated guess with a higher percentage of likelihood than if I approached it the way you're approaching LSU.

Which would basically be "Florida is going to lose to teams they shouldn't because they do stupid stuff like throwing shoes."  

utee94

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #37 on: September 02, 2021, 12:08:19 PM »

Which would basically be "Florida is going to lose to teams they shouldn't because they do stupid stuff like throwing shoes." 

That's one of the benefits of being a Texas fan right now.  When you suck as bad as we do, there's really no such thing as a team we shouldn't lose to.  It's quite liberating, actually.





(not really.  It totally sucks)

ALA2262

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #38 on: September 02, 2021, 12:45:44 PM »
Does anyone disagree with this overall general guess?

I hear Mizzou might be decent and UK should be OK, in part because of the three Vandys they each will face.  Arky seems to be improving, and I don't think the West has a Vandy right now.  Looks like I am predicting a UGA loss to UF.
MO is going to be a tough out for UF in Columbia. MO also gets aTm in Columbia the week after aTm plays Bama. There is an administrator of a Bama board, who is pretty savvy with this stuff, that believes MO will be undefeated then and will beat aTm. I believe MO will lose at UK and at BC before that game.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2021, 12:51:49 PM by ALA2262 »

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2021, 12:59:07 PM »
One thing I'll probably have to adjust to is eyeing the QB position more.  In 11.5 seasons with Miles, it didn't matter what you had at QB, good or bad, as long as the other pieces were in place, you could reasonably expect 10-11 wins.  Disaster years were 4-4 and that only happened once.  It was his style of dragging everything into the dirt and turning everything into an ugly mud-wrestling match.  Well, not so much in the Jamarcus/Flynn days, but after that.  Orgeron doesn't really coach like that.  QB is probably more critical than it used to be, but I'm slow adjusting that thinking. 

It probably means more that Max Johnson has only started a couple of games under this staff than previous staffs.  He did look capable in those games, though his throwing motion left something to be desired imo.  He's not the only QB, fwiw.  The snakebit Brennan should be available later this season, though I'm skeptical he'll retake the job from Johnson since by that point Johnson will probably have started more games than him.  Brennan sure was off to a killer start last year in his 3 games though.  Record breakers for a 3 game stretch, beating Burrow's 2019 pace--though I'm not sure what that means since defenses across the board were complete trash last year.  Nussmeier is also available, obviously with no experience.  He's definitely the QB of the future, though hopefully not this year.  Best looking freshman camp we've ever had, though.  If he has to play, we'll have had worse at QB (though as I said, with another staff where that didn't matter as much). 

O-line returns 4/5 starters with a lot of experience.  The 5th has played, but will need to gel.  I expect them to do well since experience is the main correlating factor to OL success.  They weren't that good at run blocking last year, but in the off years that happens to us, LSU's OLs tend not to have that problem more than once in a row.  Not much in the way of depth there, so OL injuries will be a big deal.  But overall, LSU's offense by virtue of passing game alone--with Finley at QB--was more than fine last year.  Moderate running game improvement, and there's reason to be bullish on the offense.  One of these 5-star backs need to step up, though.  Emery and Price and haven't come close to living up to their recruiting stars.  

The defense was the main culprit, specifically the safeties.  They were hopelessly and hilariously lost last year and Pelini didn't know how to fix it.  I said when O hired him the game had moved on from Pelini's heyday and I didn't expect his second stint at LSU to look like the first.  Well....yeah....though I didn't think it would be THAT bad.  Ultimately it wasn't so much his scheme as I suspected, though that was a little stale, he just didn't have the ability to get the secondary on the same page.  I don't know much about the new DC, Daronte Jones, but he's got to be better than that.  Position coaches Corey Raymond and Bill Busch are still amongst the best in the business.  Jones' scheme for this year is said to be "simple" with the purpose of making sure last year's communication issues don't repeat.  So, easier for the players, but does that mean easier for offenses to diagnose?  I don't know.  In the end though, at this point you've got the much tougher argument to make if you think LSU--typically a very strong pass defense team--should be judged off of last year and not the last 10-12 years overall, especially with this level of talent.  

The front 7 was already good, you just didn't realize it since every other play was a 50 yard bomb to an area the safeties forgot about.  Linebackers will probably take a step back, the line, on paper, should be the best and deepest DL LSU has had in a several years.  And a few of them already did great as pass rushers last year. 

All in all, this team probably "should" hit 6-2 with 5-3 being equally as likely.  4-4 would be underachieving and a disappointment.  The QB and the new coordinators probably tell the tale.  The rest of the pieces are mostly known quantities.  Both 2019 and 2020 are obviously outliers.  Orgeron's "typical" team imo is more likely to look like 2018.  Though it's possible he has a rare knack for staying at the outliers, great seasons mixed in with horrible ones.  

Right now I just hope we get past UCLA.  As a rule I don't like these seasons starting out with team with a pulse, though LSU is in love with them.  I especially don't like it when said team has already played a game.  UCLA did really well last week, though Hawaii might also be pretty bad, I don't know.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2021, 09:54:39 AM »
Nevermind, my optimism was clearly misplaced.  This staff is determined to disprove the old axiom "It's not the X's and O's, it's the Johnny and Joes."

Johnny and Joe are enrolled, but they don't know how to play football. 

Running game is still beyond abysmal.  That will make for a long season.  Last year's defensive confusion just changed from the safeties to the linebackers, that will make for a longer season.  They don't fill run gaps and they're lost in coverage.  LSU is going with the ambitious 4-0-4 defense, it seems.  

We're back in the 90's again. 

On the bright side, I'm looking forward to saying "I told you so" to all our fans and other assorted idgits here and elsewhere who looked at Miles and concluded winning a bunch of games at LSU is easy and anyone can do it.  I said the day would come fans would be reminded that winning is hard and a guy who wins 80% for 11 years isn't easy to come by.  I was right.....yay?

Cincydawg

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Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2021, 12:09:12 PM »
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.
Upon further review:

Bama - lookin' good for 12-0 to me
A&M - 6-2 seems reasonable
LSU - 7-1 is not reasonable, might be 5-3 or worse
Auburn - 4-4
UGA - 7-1, close win at Clemmons
UF - 6-2 looks reasonable

 

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