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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2021, 01:46:11 PM

Title: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2021, 01:46:11 PM
2021 SEC football schedule: Dates, matchups | NCAA.com (https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-01-29/2021-sec-football-schedule-dates-matchups)

Conference games only, of course you can opine about OOC games as well.

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on June 13, 2021, 02:43:01 PM
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: bamajoe on June 15, 2021, 04:20:02 PM
Alabama imo has a fairly difficult schedule. To start with the games with Florida, A&M, and Auburn are on the road. It is not easy going into Gainesville and College Station and winning. It will be 150 degrees and 100,000 fans screaming like banshees. Also weird things happen in Auburn. Unlike you, I think Miami and Ole Miss are challenges and I saw some publication thinks Mississippi State is a top 10 team. Alabama's schedule is far more than a cake walk.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on June 15, 2021, 04:39:16 PM
I didn't call it a cake walk.  They could lose a game obviously, I don't think they will.

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on August 30, 2021, 07:40:51 PM
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.
No changes in my guesses from June, not that we're here.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 11:35:09 AM
Alabama imo has a fairly difficult schedule. To start with the games with Florida, A&M, and Auburn are on the road. It is not easy going into Gainesville and College Station and winning. It will be 150 degrees and 100,000 fans screaming like banshees. Also weird things happen in Auburn. Unlike you, I think Miami and Ole Miss are challenges and I saw some publication thinks Mississippi State is a top 10 team. Alabama's schedule is far more than a cake walk.
Miami and Ole Miss and Miss State might be challenges for, say, Arkansas.  They're not challenges to Alabama.

If Auburn isn't about 100x better than last year, they're no challenge either.

Alabama slaughtered A&M's  best team since 2012 last year and the ags are going to take a pretty big step back this year with losses of their veteran QB and almost their entire o-line which was the strength of the team last year.  

I don't know what Florida lost or kept from last year but they're usually pretty good.  So it looks to be a one-game regular season for the Tide.  I'm not really knocking the schedule, it's just a testament to the strength of your team, that the schedule is weak by comparison.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: bamajoe on August 31, 2021, 01:12:25 PM
I think Alabama will be pretty good this year and I can't pick out an opponent that I believe will beat them. However, I am aware that only two of Saban's six NCs were undefeated teams. I also find it strange that you can argue how bad Bama beat A&M and not consider how close the games with Ole Miss and Florida were. You are the only person I know who is disrespecting A&M who many people think deserved to be in the playoffs last year. You are disrespecting LSU and they won the 2020 NC. Miami is the 14th rated team in America. Auburn beat Bama in 2019. To me the schedule looks challenging. A one game schedule; hardly.

I hope we are as good as you think we are. When will the sounds of SEC, SEC start coming from Austin?
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 01:17:31 PM
LSU was atrocious last year.  How am I disrespecting them by discounting them?

Lots of people think the ags will take a step back this year.  CincyDawg already stated as such on this thread and others.  I'm hardly the only one.  I'm not "disrespecting" their last year's team, which was actually quite good.  Much better than the ag fans I know actually expected, because they despised Mond, and didn't ever give him any credit.  Once he finally had a good oline and wasn't running for his life on every play, he played well.  But he, and almost that entire oline, are gone now.  I think it's silly NOT to expect them to take a step back.  I expect Texas' offense to take a step back as well, for similar reasons.

And yeah, I expect some of the younger Longhorn fans will chant SECSECSEC this year.  But I suspect we'll hear it a lot more from fans of OPPOSING teams, mocking us if/when they beat us.

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: bamajoe on August 31, 2021, 02:20:03 PM
i believe you indicated that Alabama had a one game schedule and that opponent is Florida. Ergo you are discounting everybody not named Florida. LSU had a bad year last year. I don't think you can assume they will be bad again. They are loaded with talent. You cite A&M's losses at qb and 0line as reasons for their regression. They have recruited at a high level recently. There is no reason to assume that they can't replace those losses. FWIW Alabama had similar losses.

I hope you are correct and neither are competitive.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 02:32:31 PM
Those will only be competitive games if Alabama allows them to be.  That's where your team is right now.  I'm sure you enjoy it, I know I would.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: bamajoe on August 31, 2021, 02:42:17 PM







 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwizopi39NvyAhV6QjABHWIEDyoQtwJ6BAgLEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanrhetoric.com%2FMovieSpeeches%2Fmoviespeechcrimsontide.html&usg=AOvVaw2AwwL2y1N__xA7nQuk0F8x)
American Rhetoric: Movie Speech from Crimson Tide
 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwizopi39NvyAhV6QjABHWIEDyoQtwJ6BAgLEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanrhetoric.com%2FMovieSpeeches%2Fmoviespeechcrimsontide.html&usg=AOvVaw2AwwL2y1N__xA7nQuk0F8x)
 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwizopi39NvyAhV6QjABHWIEDyoQtwJ6BAgLEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanrhetoric.com%2FMovieSpeeches%2Fmoviespeechcrimsontide.html&usg=AOvVaw2AwwL2y1N__xA7nQuk0F8x)


(https://i.imgur.com/3NxAgW9.jpg) (https://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechcrimsontide.html)

 (https://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechcrimsontide.html)

 (https://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechcrimsontide.html)



Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Thumper on August 31, 2021, 03:14:33 PM
I keep waiting for bamajoe to say "Rat Poison!" ;)
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 31, 2021, 03:16:45 PM
LSU was atrocious last year.  How am I disrespecting them by discounting them?

Depends on how you're discounting them.  If you're expecting them to be anything like as bad as last year, you're almost certainly wrong.  If your point is they're not as good as Alabama, you're almost certainly right.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 03:18:45 PM
Depends on how you're discounting them.  If you're expecting them to be anything like as bad as last year, you're almost certainly wrong.  If your point is they're not as good as Alabama, you're almost certainly right. 
I don't expect LSU to challenge Alabama or anyone else for the SEC title this year.

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 31, 2021, 03:24:44 PM
It's only Alabama, the "anyone else" doesn't factor into the picture.  And no, they won't challenge Alabama this year.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on August 31, 2021, 04:26:30 PM
It's only Alabama, the "anyone else" doesn't factor into the picture.  

Thanks, you're now echoing the exact point I was making in the first place. :)

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 31, 2021, 06:41:20 PM
only a fool would discount Bama.  

however, there is this strange dynamic that happens in this game, where skill and emotion entwine- where 'teams' form and perform at a level nobody could anticipate out of the clear blue without prior indication they could execute 'like that'... 

bama has earned it's reputation.  they pull on their boots and go to work.  that's pretty much all they have to do as they are supremely coached and prepared.  

however, there are teams on their schedule, who IF they performed at their absolute best and met Bama loafing even a little, could beat them.  those teams are Florida, Auburn, LSU, and aTm.... but it isn't those that will do it imHo- it's a team sandwiched somewhere on the schedule that lets Bama look right past them- that team that maybe won't make a bowl... that team nobody believes in and is isolated in that disregard every week... who has the tools but has had no indication of what they can do with them yet... 

Ole Miss, Arkansas, Miss State or Tennessee (in order of likelihood) will drop the Tide this season.  What it'll take is playing at 125% of their possible game, which happens from time to time, and catching Bama just going through the motions.  

now if these were armies laying in wait, or a bunch of gangs getting ready to go at it 50's style where its well known one slip up can get you killed i'd have to say Bama rolls right through the season without any real threat... but... it isn't... 'going to work', in my opinion, is a condition that can invite the fall against a team that is hungry and had their encounter circled, as if it's the only game they'll ever play, for years.    

just sayin'.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on August 31, 2021, 07:06:58 PM
Upsets happen.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 31, 2021, 07:29:43 PM
Tennessee could play Alabama 100 times this year and wouldn't win once.  They could catch them after a tough opponent, sandwiched between 2, have a bye before it, and half of the Tide get covid, and the Vols wouldn't beat Alabama.

That's a bad team minus 35 players.  
The SEC East has 3 Vanderbilts this year:  Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 31, 2021, 07:36:49 PM
Tennessee could play Alabama 100 times this year and wouldn't win once.  They could catch them after a tough opponent, sandwiched between 2, have a bye before it, and half of the Tide get covid, and the Vols wouldn't beat Alabama.

That's a bad team minus 35 players. 
The SEC East has 3 Vanderbilts this year:  Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
as it is well known, i am a UT fan... so this will come off biased when i really don't have any expectations from them this season whatsoever- they are corrupt from the top of the university to the lowliest waterboy... however... 

JG is gone long gone.  they will be better simply because of that... certainly not great.  

but that isn't even the point i wanted to make- the point is:  you don't know any more than i do what will happen with UT this season.  if they've ever been a mystery it is now.  do i think they'll make a bowl?  nope... it'll be close... the schedule, for once, is easier than normal- so... yeah, they'll bowl... see what happened there?  confused?  me too... for that reason i've got zero expectations from them.  i DO know, however, JG is finally not going to eff things up... just THAT and THAT alone is pretty dang good news.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 31, 2021, 07:45:25 PM
Thanks, you're now echoing the exact point I was making in the first place. :)

Half of your point.  It also seemed to include the notion that LSU will suck because they had a bad record last year.  I think that's probably wrong.  They'll be a good team that Alabama has to try hard for, as usual.  But Bama will try hard, and win.  

They'll also lose to somebody else or two.  I'm guessing more than usual because I really haven't kept up with things as much lately, but from what I do know, this seems like a 9-10 win team.  If they're not, Orgeron's got some explaining to do.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 08:27:24 AM
Half of your point.  It also seemed to include the notion that LSU will suck because they had a bad record last year.  I think that's probably wrong.  They'll be a good team that Alabama has to try hard for, as usual.  But Bama will try hard, and win. 

They'll also lose to somebody else or two.  I'm guessing more than usual because I really haven't kept up with things as much lately, but from what I do know, this seems like a 9-10 win team.  If they're not, Orgeron's got some explaining to do. 
I think Orgeron is going to have some explaining to do.

Not that anyone will understand him.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 01, 2021, 10:06:52 AM
Based on your extensive knowledge of LSU's 2021 roster and staff?
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 11:12:28 AM
Based on your extensive knowledge of LSU's 2021 roster and staff?

Sure. :)

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 12:16:10 PM
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.
Does anyone disagree with this overall general guess?

I hear Mizzou might be decent and UK should be OK, in part because of the three Vandys they each will face.  Arky seems to be improving, and I don't think the West has a Vandy right now.  Looks like I am predicting a UGA loss to UF.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: bamajoe on September 01, 2021, 01:19:07 PM
I think LSU will be good but less than 7-1. I don't think they can beat A&M and Florida is a toss up. I am going 7-1 with A&M. I think Georgia's only regular season loss is to Clemson.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 01:31:51 PM
Ags at 6-2 looks right, but maybe 5-3.   LSU at 7-1 looks too high, more like 5-3.  I think there's going to be a lot of parity in the west between A&M, LSU, Auburn, Miss State, and Ole Miss.  I think Arkansas is still going to struggle though, hopefully including their game on 9/11.

Can't really comment on the east, I follow the west much more closely due to familial relations and all.

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 01:33:42 PM
The East is easier, you have two pretty solid teams UGA and UF, and two middlin teams that could be decent in Mizzou and UK and three Vandys.

Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 01, 2021, 02:59:40 PM
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.


Does anyone disagree with this overall general guess?

I think Alabama will lose one somewhere, because they usually do, although they shouldn't.  Mac Jones was fun to watch last year, I wish we could've gotten to see him in a year that wasn't so weird.  I didn't know until just now he moved on.  

I don't know enough about A&M or Auburn, couldn't say.

LSU is probably overachieving if they hit 7-1.  6-2 or 5-3 seems more right.  Alabama, and I don't know who else but somebody.  Obviously that's an iffy statement to make when I admit I don't know much about some divisional opponents, or Florida either, but I'm basing it strictly off the quality of team I see in Baton Rouge.  Usually a team of this (expected) quality has been good for 5-6 conference wins.  That's in a vacuum and real life doesn't work like that, so grain of salt and all that.  

UGA--we don't play them, so there's one guaranteed win out the window for us :)  If Auburn is as bad as you say, I wouldn't pick them against the Dawgs.  But that game is weird.  So is Florida/UGA, the Cocktail party has made a fool out of me more than once.  

Florida--don't know enough.  They're usually good enough on defense to get 6 conference wins or so.  

I heard Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC now...I looked at their schedule and I don't think they're gonna get a single SEC win.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 03:38:02 PM
I think Alabama will lose one somewhere, because they usually do, although they shouldn't.  Mac Jones was fun to watch last year, I wish we could've gotten to see him in a year that wasn't so weird.  I didn't know until just now he moved on. 

I don't know enough about A&M or Auburn, couldn't say.

LSU is probably overachieving if they hit 7-1.  6-2 or 5-3 seems more right.  Alabama, and I don't know who else but somebody.  Obviously that's an iffy statement to make when I admit I don't know much about some divisional opponents, or Florida either, but I'm basing it strictly off the quality of team I see in Baton Rouge.  Usually a team of this (expected) quality has been good for 5-6 conference wins.  That's in a vacuum and real life doesn't work like that, so grain of salt and all that. 

UGA--we don't play them, so there's one guaranteed win out the window for us :)  If Auburn is as bad as you say, I wouldn't pick them against the Dawgs.  But that game is weird.  So is Florida/UGA, the Cocktail party has made a fool out of me more than once. 

Florida--don't know enough.  They're usually good enough on defense to get 6 conference wins or so. 

I heard Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC now...I looked at their schedule and I don't think they're gonna get a single SEC win.

So you're assuming Arkansas beats Texas on 9/11?  You could certainly be right about that, although I obviously hope not.

Weird things happen to Texas in FayetteNam.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 01, 2021, 06:00:12 PM
Arkansas is not an SEC team.  We booted them back to the SWC when they started losing to Big Ten teams back in the aughts.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on September 01, 2021, 07:12:22 PM
I lean to thinking LSU is probably more of a 6-2 team, or less, I would alter that.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: just1hog on September 02, 2021, 05:41:42 AM
Mike Mike Mike.... you need to be careful what you're stepping in :) 2014 was a rough year for you and UT, 31-7 in Houston no less. And 50-48 in 3 OTs vs. #1 LSU, ouch, I know that one hurt. :smiley_confused1:

CSP is a better coach than Nutt, his time is coming and soon. 
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on September 02, 2021, 08:27:46 AM
People are so high on LSU and I don't know why.  Replacing both coordinators AGAIN.  Went from 3 QBs down to 1.  And their pass D was worse than most winless teams.
Yes, I'll say that again.  Their pass D was worse than most winless teams, HISTORICALLY.  With Stingley.  

But suddenly they're a 10-2/11-1 team???  Nope.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on September 02, 2021, 08:45:01 AM
Upon further review, I think I drank some Koolaid on LSU somewhere along the way.

They do have a lot of talent, but it might not be in the right places.  They could be a team that upsets Bama and then loses to Ole Miss or Arky.

I'm a bit impressed with Arky and what their new coach has done, but they still lack some talent.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 02, 2021, 10:23:05 AM
And 50-48 in 3 OTs vs. #1 LSU, ouch, I know that one hurt. :smiley_confused1:


The national championship more than made up for it.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 02, 2021, 10:31:24 AM
People are so high on LSU and I don't know why.  Replacing both coordinators AGAIN.  Went from 3 QBs down to 1.  And their pass D was worse than most winless teams.
Yes, I'll say that again.  Their pass D was worse than most winless teams, HISTORICALLY.  With Stingley. 

But suddenly they're a 10-2/11-1 team???  Nope.

All you're talking about is what was, which is a piss-poor indicator of what will be.  In order to forecast you need to look at what is, and then when talking about previous problems or bright spots it's not a question of what was, but what were the factors involved and how likely are they to repeat?

I wouldn't make any prognostications on Florida because I simply don't know enough about them NOW.  What they did last year is somewhat meaningless, and to the extent it has meaning I have no idea WHY those things went the way they did or how likely it is to repeat.

I'd be much better off asking a fan such as yourself what's going on and what's reasonably expected.  Even if you're wrong, it's going to be a more educated guess with a higher percentage of likelihood than if I approached it the way you're approaching LSU.

Which would basically be "Florida is going to lose to teams they shouldn't because they do stupid stuff like throwing shoes."  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: utee94 on September 02, 2021, 12:08:19 PM

Which would basically be "Florida is going to lose to teams they shouldn't because they do stupid stuff like throwing shoes." 

That's one of the benefits of being a Texas fan right now.  When you suck as bad as we do, there's really no such thing as a team we shouldn't lose to.  It's quite liberating, actually.





(not really.  It totally sucks)
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: ALA2262 on September 02, 2021, 12:45:44 PM
Does anyone disagree with this overall general guess?

I hear Mizzou might be decent and UK should be OK, in part because of the three Vandys they each will face.  Arky seems to be improving, and I don't think the West has a Vandy right now.  Looks like I am predicting a UGA loss to UF.
MO is going to be a tough out for UF in Columbia. MO also gets aTm in Columbia the week after aTm plays Bama. There is an administrator of a Bama board, who is pretty savvy with this stuff, that believes MO will be undefeated then and will beat aTm. I believe MO will lose at UK and at BC before that game.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 02, 2021, 12:59:07 PM
One thing I'll probably have to adjust to is eyeing the QB position more.  In 11.5 seasons with Miles, it didn't matter what you had at QB, good or bad, as long as the other pieces were in place, you could reasonably expect 10-11 wins.  Disaster years were 4-4 and that only happened once.  It was his style of dragging everything into the dirt and turning everything into an ugly mud-wrestling match.  Well, not so much in the Jamarcus/Flynn days, but after that.  Orgeron doesn't really coach like that.  QB is probably more critical than it used to be, but I'm slow adjusting that thinking. 

It probably means more that Max Johnson has only started a couple of games under this staff than previous staffs.  He did look capable in those games, though his throwing motion left something to be desired imo.  He's not the only QB, fwiw.  The snakebit Brennan should be available later this season, though I'm skeptical he'll retake the job from Johnson since by that point Johnson will probably have started more games than him.  Brennan sure was off to a killer start last year in his 3 games though.  Record breakers for a 3 game stretch, beating Burrow's 2019 pace--though I'm not sure what that means since defenses across the board were complete trash last year.  Nussmeier is also available, obviously with no experience.  He's definitely the QB of the future, though hopefully not this year.  Best looking freshman camp we've ever had, though.  If he has to play, we'll have had worse at QB (though as I said, with another staff where that didn't matter as much). 

O-line returns 4/5 starters with a lot of experience.  The 5th has played, but will need to gel.  I expect them to do well since experience is the main correlating factor to OL success.  They weren't that good at run blocking last year, but in the off years that happens to us, LSU's OLs tend not to have that problem more than once in a row.  Not much in the way of depth there, so OL injuries will be a big deal.  But overall, LSU's offense by virtue of passing game alone--with Finley at QB--was more than fine last year.  Moderate running game improvement, and there's reason to be bullish on the offense.  One of these 5-star backs need to step up, though.  Emery and Price and haven't come close to living up to their recruiting stars.  

The defense was the main culprit, specifically the safeties.  They were hopelessly and hilariously lost last year and Pelini didn't know how to fix it.  I said when O hired him the game had moved on from Pelini's heyday and I didn't expect his second stint at LSU to look like the first.  Well....yeah....though I didn't think it would be THAT bad.  Ultimately it wasn't so much his scheme as I suspected, though that was a little stale, he just didn't have the ability to get the secondary on the same page.  I don't know much about the new DC, Daronte Jones, but he's got to be better than that.  Position coaches Corey Raymond and Bill Busch are still amongst the best in the business.  Jones' scheme for this year is said to be "simple" with the purpose of making sure last year's communication issues don't repeat.  So, easier for the players, but does that mean easier for offenses to diagnose?  I don't know.  In the end though, at this point you've got the much tougher argument to make if you think LSU--typically a very strong pass defense team--should be judged off of last year and not the last 10-12 years overall, especially with this level of talent.  

The front 7 was already good, you just didn't realize it since every other play was a 50 yard bomb to an area the safeties forgot about.  Linebackers will probably take a step back, the line, on paper, should be the best and deepest DL LSU has had in a several years.  And a few of them already did great as pass rushers last year. 

All in all, this team probably "should" hit 6-2 with 5-3 being equally as likely.  4-4 would be underachieving and a disappointment.  The QB and the new coordinators probably tell the tale.  The rest of the pieces are mostly known quantities.  Both 2019 and 2020 are obviously outliers.  Orgeron's "typical" team imo is more likely to look like 2018.  Though it's possible he has a rare knack for staying at the outliers, great seasons mixed in with horrible ones.  

Right now I just hope we get past UCLA.  As a rule I don't like these seasons starting out with team with a pulse, though LSU is in love with them.  I especially don't like it when said team has already played a game.  UCLA did really well last week, though Hawaii might also be pretty bad, I don't know.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on September 05, 2021, 09:54:39 AM
Nevermind, my optimism was clearly misplaced.  This staff is determined to disprove the old axiom "It's not the X's and O's, it's the Johnny and Joes."

Johnny and Joe are enrolled, but they don't know how to play football. 

Running game is still beyond abysmal.  That will make for a long season.  Last year's defensive confusion just changed from the safeties to the linebackers, that will make for a longer season.  They don't fill run gaps and they're lost in coverage.  LSU is going with the ambitious 4-0-4 defense, it seems.  

We're back in the 90's again. 

On the bright side, I'm looking forward to saying "I told you so" to all our fans and other assorted idgits here and elsewhere who looked at Miles and concluded winning a bunch of games at LSU is easy and anyone can do it.  I said the day would come fans would be reminded that winning is hard and a guy who wins 80% for 11 years isn't easy to come by.  I was right.....yay?
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on September 06, 2021, 12:09:12 PM
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.
Upon further review:

Bama - lookin' good for 12-0 to me
A&M - 6-2 seems reasonable
LSU - 7-1 is not reasonable, might be 5-3 or worse
Auburn - 4-4
UGA - 7-1, close win at Clemmons
UF - 6-2 looks reasonable
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 02:44:13 PM
Alabama - Duh.  They have four games basically, at Florida, at Auburn, LSU, and at A&M.  And yes,they could lose one somewhere, but I doubt it, 8-0.

A&M - Favorable slate, Bama and Auburn at home, at LSU.  My notion is 6-2.

LSU - At Bama, but the other tougher teams at home, so 7-1.

Auburn - I see four losses for them, first year coach and all, 4-4.

UGA - Two games, at Auburn and Florida, I predict 7-1, probably a close loss to Clemson to boot.

Florida - Bama at home, At LSU and UGA, Two losses.
I had a consensus kind of notion and it was pretty far off.  I did get UGA-Bama in the CG basically.  Ole Miss did better than expected.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 02:47:38 PM
Upon further review:

Bama - lookin' good for 12-0 to me
A&M - 6-2 seems reasonable
LSU - 7-1 is not reasonable, might be 5-3 or worse
Auburn - 4-4
UGA - 7-1, close win at Clemmons
UF - 6-2 looks reasonable
A little better projection here.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 02:48:53 PM
The SEC East has 3 Vanderbilts this year:  Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
This, among other things, didn't age well, but nobody foresaw the Florida debacle, certainly not me.  Kentucky or Tennessee ended up the second best team in the East.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2021, 02:59:36 PM
MO is going to be a tough out for UF in Columbia. MO also gets aTm in Columbia the week after aTm plays Bama. There is an administrator of a Bama board, who is pretty savvy with this stuff, that believes MO will be undefeated then and will beat aTm. I believe MO will lose at UK and at BC before that game.
Pretty good call, though MO wasn't quite that good.  They did beat a pretty good team recently.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 27, 2021, 08:30:48 PM
Did anyone have LSU and Auburn tying for last in the West?

It happened, if LSU wins tonight.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 28, 2021, 07:54:52 AM
I certainly did not, I had a notion LSU still had a lot of talent, which might be true.

I had Vandy last in the E at least.  Ha.

UK was second, and at 9-3 likely in line for a decent bowl game.  Ole Miss did well at 10-2.  Arky punched in at 8-4.  The Vols were 7-5 which showed progress.  They beat UK and lost to UF, who basically fell off the map late but now is 6-6.

I see UGA is a 6 point favorite in the CG.  I do wonder if Bama is in their heads.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 28, 2021, 03:08:51 PM
Frustrating overall.  We weren't going to win the division or anything important this year, but now knowing that O handcuffed the DC up until the Alabama game, it kinda sucks looking at a few L's that probably should've been W's.  Probably pick up Auburn and UCLA with this version of the defense.  Maybe Kentucky.  Pretty good November for a squad down 8 guys and a lot of youth/inexperience picking up the slack. 

With even a remote improvement from either the OL or QB, maybe we even have enough offense to pick up one or both of the Alabama or Arkansas games.  Defense certainly did their job against those two.  However, that's getting into a lot of ifs, ands, and buts, and our record highlights the fact we don't play games in those imaginary universes.  So, yeah, frustrating. 


Lagniappe:  I just filtered the SEC ypp allowed stats through the month of November, the start of which was the Tiger defense's reboot, starting with Bama.  Confirms my suspicion...LSU was 4th in the SEC since then.  Behind UGA (duh), Alabama, and Texas A&M.  They allowed 4.64 ypp through those 4 games (vs. Bama, Arkansas, Directional U, and A&M).  I'm pretty pleased with that result from a bunch of guys who we mostly thought would be backups/scrub time guys this year. 

EDIT:  Wanted to see how the defense split out, so filtering the same time period for just rushing defense, LSU was the league's second leading rush defense, giving up 2.44 yards per carry, behind only Alabama, giving up 1.68 yards per carry (holy crap!), but ahead of UGA (barely) giving up 2.51 ypc.  These are raw stats, so it's just a talking point....there's other factors like junk time, opponent's played, situational objectives, etc. that may move teams up or down the list in a "real world" analysis.  I do think there's some value to raw numbers though.  Still not great against the pass for LSU in November though, coming in 6th in the league behind (in order) UGA, A&M, South Carolina, Alabama, and Kentucky.  We allowed 6.9 yards per attempt in November...certainly not bad, but we've done better, and other teams are significantly ahead.  UGA giving up only 4.6 ypa in that same span (again, holy crap!). 
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2021, 06:52:06 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/mpkvTLB.png)
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 29, 2021, 06:54:55 AM
Who did better, and worse, than you expected?  Obviously Florida did considerably worse than anyone thought.  I'm not overly surprised by anything else, I revised my LSU thinking down, Ole Miss did better, Arky maybe did one game better,  Tennessee was about +1.  Auburn and Mizzou were probably -1 relative to expectations.

UGA was about plus 2.  
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: just1hog on November 30, 2021, 05:51:25 AM
Kentucky 9-3? That's COY material right there IMO.
Title: Re: Conference Record Predictions for 2021 Season
Post by: Cincydawg on November 30, 2021, 06:58:52 AM
I like what I see Pittman doing, if he can sustain.  UK indeed has been solid for a few years now.