The B12 (XII) Forum, home of the 'Front Porch, y'all' at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I lived in an on-campus dorm my freshman year, an apartment near campus my sophomore year, and an apartment not particularly close to campus but in a densely student-populated area with dedicated UT student shuttle service, for my junior and senior years.

Although as a EE with a lot of labs those final 2 years, you could also say I pretty much just lived on campus.  There were numerous nights I never went home.

I went to a fairly well-off public high school in Austin.  It was in "The Hills" which were the most desirable place to live in town at the time.  But I lived in "The Flats" which were literally on the wrong side of the tracks.  The highway called "MOPAC" ran right along the Missouri-Pacific railline right of way, which also happened to be the fault line for the Balcones Fault.  So everything west of that faultline is hilly, and everything east is flat.

Yup.  Texas and OU are in the B12 for 2023 football season.  Horns got two of the newbies, Sooners got three of them, I think.

THE OKLAHOMAN
Report: Oklahoma and Texas football programs unlikely to join SEC in 2024
Scooby Axson
USA TODAY

The plan for Oklahoma and Texas to leave for the Southeastern Conference as early as 2024 has hit a snag and now the two schools will likely join the league in 2025 as originally planned, ESPN.com reports.

According to the report, the two schools, their current conference, the Big 12, and FOX and ESPN, the television networks that have the conference's media rights, could not agree to terms on a deal for early entry into the current 14-team SEC.

Oklahoma and Texas were set to become SEC conference members on July 1, 2025, after the expiration of the current Big 12 Grant of Rights. The newest twist in conference realignment started in July 2021 after reports the heated rivals were planning on ditching the Big 12 for a more lucrative league.

That means the biggest moneymakers in the Big 12 will be joined Brigham Young Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida, making it a 14-team league starting this academic year and the football teams will again continue without divisions with the conference title matchup decided on best win percentage within the league.

Still in negotiations with Fox, it's closer to being done than the current mainstream outlets are saying.

ESPN owned like a 60% stake in the Big 12. They got to pick first, but they also have a stake in the SEC. Their overall value will largely continue.
Fox owns the other 40%. They came in second best, and relied on having a Texas or OU property to pick from in most weeks.

I think Fox believes, and rightly so, that they're gonna lose practically their entire investment in the Big 12 once Texas and OU leave (that is, the #2 game isn't worth sending a crew to). They're trying to figure out some way to mollify Fox. That'll be tough to do.

All true.


But at this point, since Texas and OU are now officially staying for next year, and the current B12 broadcasting partner TV contracts and GOR end the following year, Fox would only be losing Texas and OU for one season that it is contractually obliged to the B12.  And yet Fox is currently negotiating as if they'd be losing their entire investment. Given the decent TV ratings numbers that non-TX/OU matchups draw in the B12, that simply isn't true. 

I'd say Fox is overplaying its hand, but as you state, that's what you do during a negotiation, in order to anchor the negotiation in terms that lean toward your own favor.

But another thing that some folks seem to be forgetting, is that Fox doesn't HAVE to do anything.  They're being asked to make concessions in order for Texas and OU to leave sooner, but if they choose NOT to make concessions, it's not like they're doing anything wrong.

I've seen various parties accusing Fox of "throwing a tantrum" or "holding up the deal."  Those are incorrect statements with an inappropriate tone.  Fox would be insane to give up its contractual rights, without expecting compensation for it.  But the other thing to remember is that Texas and OU don't have a contract with Fox.  The B12 does.  Texas and OU have contracts with the B12.

So if Texas and OU want to leave early, Fox can't stop them, at least not directly.  All they can do is deny concessions that would make the departure easier, and tell the B12 they'll be paying less in 2024, if Texas and OU inventory is not included in the conference deal. 

So that's when the B12 negotiations with TX and OU come into play-- if Fox can't be convinced to make concessions, then the B12 must attempt to make it more expensive for Texas and OU to leave.  And that's the part of the negotiation we're at, as of today.

What concessions will Fox be willing to make and what do they expect in return?  Then, how does that affect what the B12 attempts to recover from Texas and OU? And finally, what are Texas and OU willing to pay, to satisfy the B12's desired recovery?