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Topic: B12 Fans, what do you say about Oklahoma
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medinabuckeye1 · « **on:** June 15, 2022, 04:13:45 PM »

Over on the B1G board we have a much more active community and a project to pick an "other team" to review for 2022. I picked Oklahoma for reasons laid out below and just wanted to get a double-check on my analysis, please review:

I'm going to go with Oklahoma simply because my paternal Grandfather and a great-aunt were born there when my dad's paternal grandparents lived in Oklahoma for a few years in the early 1900's.

The biggest news at Oklahoma, of course, is the unscheduled coaching change. Programs like Oklahoma are not accustomed to losing coaches but that is what happened. Last year USC poached Lincoln Riley. The new coach is a widely respected DC, Brent Venables who has been at Clemson for the last decade. He is not, however, totally new to the Sooners. He was on Bob Stoops' staff in Norman from Stoops' first year (1999) through 2011 in various capacities eventually reaching DC/AHC. Note, that includes being co-DC the last time Oklahoma won an NC. Venables was also part of Dabo Swinney's staff at Clemson for multiple NC's so he has been there as part of two different programs.

Oklahoma missed the B12CG last year for the first time since that game was reinstated for the 2017 season. Since 2000 (22 years) Oklahoma has participated in 12 out of 16 B12CG's and won 11 of them. Note that last year's miss wasn't exactly a catastrophe of a season. The Sooners tied Baylor for the #2 seed but lost the tiebreaker based on their H2H loss to the Bears. Oklahoma's absence from the B12CG was also related to schedule as the Sooners had the unfortunate situation of getting their best two B12 opponents on the road and they lost both of those games.

The OOC is manageable with two cupcakes at home (UTEP, Kent) and a road game against historic rival Nebraska. The league schedule appears much easier this year as the H/A reverses but that could be a mirage if ISU and WVU end up being better in 2022 than Baylor and OkSU.

Venables should improve the defense and this year the Sooners get their likely toughest B12 games at home (oKsU, Baylor). Texas is a bit of a wildcard as the Longhorns have plenty of talent but haven't gotten a lot out of it lately and that game is at a neutral site as usual.

I fully expect Oklahoma to return to the B12CG and likely to win it. Returning to the CFP and winning a CFP game will be more difficult. Oklahoma has four CFP appearances which matches Ohio State and trails only Bama (7) and Clemson (6). The problem that Sooner fans want to see corrected is that the Sooners are tied for last in the nation with exactly zero CFP wins. This trails not only Bama (9), Clemson (6), and Ohio State (3) but also Georgia (3), LSU (2), and Oregon (1).

Oklahoma's four CFP losses are something of a mixed bag but the prevailing theme is that their defense wasn't sufficient. The losses were:

63-28 to eventual NC LSU in the 2019 season Peach Bowl
45-34 to Bama in the 2018 season Orange Bowl
54-48 to UGA in the 2017 season Rose Bowl
37-17 to Clemson in the 2015 season Orange Bowl

Note that in only one of the losses did the Sooners score less than four TD's. Ie, they had enough offense, they just gave up way too many points with, as one of their coaches used to say, a "half a hundred" or more getting hung on them twice and giving up 45 and 37 in the other two losses.

While the 2019 loss to LSU was an obvious blowout, the others were at least somewhat competitive:
The 2018 loss to Bama, 45-34:
The Sooners had a catastrophically bad opening 17 minutes and found themselves in a 28-0 hole. From there they played respectably and outscored the Tide 34-17 although it is hard to say how much of that was Oklahoma playing better and how much was Alabama not needing points and simply playing keep-away with their large lead.

The 2017 loss to UGA, 54-48:
This loss was in 2OT so it was easily the closest Oklahoma has come to winning a CFP game and as per usual, defense was the issue. The Sooners held a 45-38 lead late in the game but couldn't stop UGA's final drive which resulted in going to OT at 45-45. Each team kicked a FG in the first OT but then Oklahoma missed their FG try in the second OT, gave up a TD, and lost the game.

The 2015 loss to Clemson, 37-17:
Although this ended up as a 20 point loss the Sooners led early and held a 17-16 loss at the half. In this particular instance the problem was more offensive than defensive. After halftime the Sooners were unable to score.

As far as getting to the CFP is concerned the key game might be in Lincoln Nebraska in September. Nebraska is a bit of a wildcard as a team that had a horrible record in 2021 but was competitive in all of their losses including to some stellar opposition. A loss here would be problematic for the Sooners because it would practically eliminate their margin for error. A 12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma probably goes to the CFP while an 11-2 B12 Champion Oklahoma probably does not.

Winning a CFP game depends on maintaining the offense and improving the defense. With even somewhat better defenses the Sooners would likely have won two of their four CFP games.

CWSooner · « **Reply #1 on:** June 15, 2022, 05:36:26 PM »

I don't disagree with your post, Medina, but I'll add some comments.

1. Losing Lincoln Riley (a.k.a. Muleshoe) is not a loss in the long run. While at OU, he demonstrated that he is an outstanding offensive coordinator and recruiter of offensive talent. He did not show himself to be an outstanding HFC. He did not develop QBs, in that they were not much better when they left than when they arrived, although he did put them in good situations in which to showcase their talents. He did not pay enough attention to the defensive side of the ball, nor did he modify his offensive philosophy to emphasize ball control. He did not develop good team culture; there was a lack of accountability for actions both on and off the field. He found ways to lose games that should have been solid wins. In five years he lost to Iowa State and Kansas State twice each. He almost lost to Army in Norman. He barely beat bad Texas teams. Brent Venables may not show himself to be a full-blown head coach in 2022, but he'll be better than Riley in the long run, I believe.

Lincoln's best team was his first, and it went downward from that point in terms of season accomplishments.
2017: Made the Rose Bowl/CFP Semifinal vs. Georgia. May have had a good enough offense to win it all, despite a mediocre-at-best defense. But he choked it away in the 1st OT period in the Rose Bowl, settling for a tying FG instead of going for the winning TD on 4th and short.
2028: Made the Orange Bowl/CFP Semifinal vs. Bama. Riley made the incomprehensible decision to receive after winning the toss. Sooners were down 21-0 before they knew what hit them. The 45-34 final looks not so bad, but whether it's indicative of an OU comeback or just Bama putting it on cruise control is an unanswered question. I lean toward the latter explanation.
2019: Made the Peach Bowl/CFP Semifinal vs. LSU and got blown out. The 2019 Tigers were an all-time great team, but Lincoln had nothing in his game plan that worked to mitigate the differential.
2020: Didn't make the CFP, but stomped a supposedly disinterested Florida team (but, then, aren't all SEC teams that lose bowl games supposedly disinterested?) in the Cotton Bowl.
2021: Didn't made the Big 12 CCG. Lost the last two games in ways that, given what happened immediately after the season, made fans wonder if he was even trying to win them. In the Oklahoma State loss, he couldn't have called a worse 4th quarter--in which the Sooners got outscored 13-0 to lose 37-33--if he had been trying to lose. And the next thing you knew, he was flying away to USC. A thrown-together staff headed up by Bob Stoops prepared and coached the team ready to its Alamo Bowl win over Oregon.

2. The 2022 offense won't be as productive. Lincoln took some good players with him and took a lot of the best offensive guys in the 2022 recruiting class as well. But it might well be better at controlling the ball and eating the clock when the Sooners have the lead.

3. The defense will be better. I fooled myself in thinking that Alex Grinch was the answer at DC just because he wasn't as bad as Mike Stoops. But he was not the answer, and the defense actually regressed (along with much else) in 2021. Brent will insist on a fundamentally sound defense that punishes the opposing offense.

4. Team culture and accountability will be better. That's already showing up in various ways.

5. I'll be disappointed if we are worse than 10-2 in the regular season. That assumes beating Nebraska in Lincoln, which I do not take as a given. Texas probably has higher-rated talent, but so far Steve Sarkesian has not looked like the savior that the Horns have been seeking since Mack Brown's final years. Nobody else in the Big 12 should have "as good as" talent, so it would take a couple of upset losses to go 10-2. I think we make and win the Big 12 CCG but do not make the CFP.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #2 on:** June 15, 2022, 05:39:26 PM »

ou sucks

Mr Tulip · « **Reply #3 on:** June 15, 2022, 05:49:31 PM »

Just about everything on the upcoming season's version of the Oklahoma Sooners is new. I don't understand why this should translate to: "Everything will be great!".

Riley wasn't a terrible coach, but largely rode Stoops's sled to the end of the trail. He's gone, and good job, but he took all of the Sooners' producers with him. By all accounts, OU had a dysfunctional team last season. Anyone with any decent body of work left.

Brent Venables has history at OU, but none of the current players know him. He's never managed a season before. He could be brilliant and rally a bunch of unknowns, or he could stand there looking like Fire Marshall Bill while the daycare runs amok. Career coordinators usually need to learn how to manage.

OU didn't exactly get tomato cans out of the transfer portal, but they're replacements nonetheless for a new head coach and staff. They're not there to plug holes in the team. They have to be the team.

Usually, these facts aren't reasons for optimism in the college football world. The Sooners may find a way to put it all together, but that isn't the way to bet. The better hope is that an already low performing Big 12 ends up worse than last season. How much lightning in a bottle did Baylor catch with a stout defense and BYU's offense? Now that they're replacing their primary defenders, RBs, and WRs, can the coach truly innovate? oSu is much the same thought. Can they keep up the defensive rebirth which saved their spastic offense? ISU loses their All-World program definers.

I could type a pamphlet, but it largely distills into Big 12 teams that were slightly above average last season replacing a lot of critical moving parts with no obvious heirs apparent.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #4 on:** June 15, 2022, 05:59:56 PM »

Hey, good to hear from you @CWSooner and thank you for the quick reply!

I conditionally agree. From my years of watching teams hire HC's, I don't think there is any "right" formula. Some guys are phenomenal DC's or OC's and just suck as HC's, other guys who are great coordinators become great HC's and I don't think there is any really reliable way to determine which will be which in advance. That said, I do like the Venables hire. His history at OU and Clemson means he has seen what it takes and I think he'll do well.
I wondered about that but OU's offenses have been so good that a slight to moderate drop-off on that side of the ball will still leave them with PLENTY of offensive punch, they just need a decent D to go with it.
Agreed.
This is something of which I know little or nothing.
I think that is not unreasonable but, as I mentioned, I do see both Nebraska and Texas as wildcards that are hard to gauge. Texas never wants for talent which makes them scary because they could pop up and be elite in any given season but they've been so bad for so long that they could also suck, who knows. Nebraska's 2021 season is one of the oddest in the history of CFB. Nearly all of their games last year were competitive regardless of the level of opposition. The only non-competitive games for the Cornhuskers were blowouts of horrible Fordham, Buffalo, and Northwestern teams. Other than that the Cornhuskers showed up each week and found some creative new way to lose a close game whether it was to highly ranked opponents like OU, tOSU, M, UW, and IA or to mediocre or bad opponents. I don't know if that is just bad luck or something that is wrong in Lincoln. If it was bad luck those things have a tendency to balance out over time and the Cornhuskers should have a lot of good luck coming! They went 0-8 in one-score games last year with only my Buckeyes (26-17) beating them by more than eight points. It is amazing because if you just look at their horrible 3-6 final record you would assume that they'll be terrible again in 2022 but looking at all those close losses, a one-TD per game improvement easily gets them to the B1GCG so who knows. That was a long way of saying that I also expect OU to be 10-2 or better and at least in the B12CG but if Nebraska and Texas both field high-end teams that projection would change immediately. Oklahoma could lose both of those and with a new staff learning a new system I can't imagine the Sooners managing to avoid upsets all season long so I'd see 9-3 as a ceiling.

FearlessF · « **Reply #5 on:** June 15, 2022, 10:55:01 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on June 15, 2022, 05:36:26 PM

I don't disagree with your post, Medina, but I'll add some comments.

1. Losing Lincoln Riley (a.k.a. Muleshoe) is not a loss in the long run.

yes, but we're talkin bout next season not long run
y'all think the Boomers have a chance in Lincoln next Sept??

CWSooner · « **Reply #6 on:** June 15, 2022, 11:13:11 PM »

Quote from: Mr Tulip on June 15, 2022, 05:49:31 PM

Just about everything on the upcoming season's version of the Oklahoma Sooners is new. I don't understand why this should translate to: "Everything will be great!".

Riley wasn't a terrible coach, but largely rode Stoops's sled to the end of the trail. He's gone, and good job, but he took all of the Sooners' producers with him. By all accounts, OU had a dysfunctional team last season. Anyone with any decent body of work left.

Brent Venables has history at OU, but none of the current players know him. He's never managed a season before. He could be brilliant and rally a bunch of unknowns, or he could stand there looking like Fire Marshall Bill while the daycare runs amok. Career coordinators usually need to learn how to manage.

OU didn't exactly get tomato cans out of the transfer portal, but they're replacements nonetheless for a new head coach and staff. They're not there to plug holes in the team. They have to be the team.

Usually, these facts aren't reasons for optimism in the college football world. The Sooners may find a way to put it all together, but that isn't the way to bet. The better hope is that an already low performing Big 12 ends up worse than last season. How much lightning in a bottle did Baylor catch with a stout defense and BYU's offense? Now that they're replacing their primary defenders, RBs, and WRs, can the coach truly innovate? oSu is much the same thought. Can they keep up the defensive rebirth which saved their spastic offense? ISU loses their All-World program definers.

I could type a pamphlet, but it largely distills into Big 12 teams that were slightly above average last season replacing a lot of critical moving parts with no obvious heirs apparent.

FWIW, the national writers are more in line with your PoV than they are mine. They almost unanimously proclaim that Muleshoe's flight to SoCal is OU's loss and USC's gain. I've seen some projections of OU going to the Alamo Bowl. That would be after a less-than-successful season, like last year's.

Conversely, those same national pundits see Muleshoe taking USC to the promised land. I've even seen a projection of the Trojans into the CFP.

OU was 11-2 last year, in an under-achieving season. USC was 4-8 last year, in an under-achieving season. While the Pac-12 is weak, and USC doesn't play Oregon this year, I'll take the Sooners to have a better 2022 season than the Trojans do.

Brent Venables obviously has not been a head coach. But he has understudied three pretty good ones: Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, and Dabo Swinney. I think he can swing the OU head-coaching job.

CWSooner · « **Reply #7 on:** June 15, 2022, 11:22:44 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on June 15, 2022, 05:59:56 PM

Hey, good to hear from you @CWSooner and thank you for the quick reply!

I conditionally agree. From my years of watching teams hire HC's, I don't think there is any "right" formula. Some guys are phenomenal DC's or OC's and just suck as HC's, other guys who are great coordinators become great HC's and I don't think there is any really reliable way to determine which will be which in advance. That said, I do like the Venables hire. His history at OU and Clemson means he has seen what it takes and I think he'll do well.
I wondered about that but OU's offenses have been so good that a slight to moderate drop-off on that side of the ball will still leave them with PLENTY of offensive punch, they just need a decent D to go with it.
Agreed.
This is something of which I know little or nothing.
I think that is not unreasonable but, as I mentioned, I do see both Nebraska and Texas as wildcards that are hard to gauge. Texas never wants for talent which makes them scary because they could pop up and be elite in any given season but they've been so bad for so long that they could also suck, who knows. Nebraska's 2021 season is one of the oddest in the history of CFB. Nearly all of their games last year were competitive regardless of the level of opposition. The only non-competitive games for the Cornhuskers were blowouts of horrible Fordham, Buffalo, and Northwestern teams. Other than that the Cornhuskers showed up each week and found some creative new way to lose a close game whether it was to highly ranked opponents like OU, tOSU, M, UW, and IA or to mediocre or bad opponents. I don't know if that is just bad luck or something that is wrong in Lincoln. If it was bad luck those things have a tendency to balance out over time and the Cornhuskers should have a lot of good luck coming! They went 0-8 in one-score games last year with only my Buckeyes (26-17) beating them by more than eight points. It is amazing because if you just look at their horrible 3-6 final record you would assume that they'll be terrible again in 2022 but looking at all those close losses, a one-TD per game improvement easily gets them to the B1GCG so who knows. That was a long way of saying that I also expect OU to be 10-2 or better and at least in the B12CG but if Nebraska and Texas both field high-end teams that projection would change immediately. Oklahoma could lose both of those and with a new staff learning a new system I can't imagine the Sooners managing to avoid upsets all season long so I'd see 9-3 as a ceiling.

Good to see you post here, Medina.
Re #2, OU's offense could be better than I expect it to be. Jeff Lebby has been a very effective OC in previous jobs. My reservation is that he worked for former-OC head coaches at his previous stops. He has not been the top offensive coach on a staff yet. I do think he'll emphasize the running game more than Riley did.
Re #5, if OU loses to both the Huskers and the Horns, I agree that 9-3 is probably the ceiling.

CWSooner · « **Reply #8 on:** June 15, 2022, 11:25:48 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on June 15, 2022, 10:55:01 PM

yes, but we're talkin bout next season not long run
y'all think the Boomers have a chance in Lincoln next Sept??

Heh!

I don't know about the "all" part of "y'all," but I think OU should win in Lincoln. They'll probably be favored. And--as Medina noted--Scott Frost hasn't proved that he can win close games when coaching the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Mr Tulip · « **Reply #9 on:** June 16, 2022, 09:04:38 AM »

Quote from: CWSooner on June 15, 2022, 11:13:11 PM

FWIW, the national writers are more in line with your PoV than they are mine. They almost unanimously proclaim that Muleshoe's flight to SoCal is OU's loss and USC's gain. I've seen some projections of OU going to the Alamo Bowl. That would be after a less-than-successful season, like last year's.

Conversely, those same national pundits see Muleshoe taking USC to the promised land. I've even seen a projection of the Trojans into the CFP.

OU was 11-2 last year, in an under-achieving season. USC was 4-8 last year, in an under-achieving season. While the Pac-12 is weak, and USC doesn't play Oregon this year, I'll take the Sooners to have a better 2022 season than the Trojans do.

Brent Venables obviously has not been a head coach. But he has understudied three pretty good ones: Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, and Dabo Swinney. I think he can swing the OU head-coaching job.

A writer has to fill column inches, and you could do worse for readership than speculate about the resurgence of a power. I just don't think Lincoln Riley built much at OU. I think he sort of stood over the Stoops era (a different era both in coaching and football landscape) and watched it erode. I'll be surprised if this is what USC is really looking for long term.

Venables could work out. There's no reason to say he won't, other than sheer blind odds that any new coach gets. I'm just thinking he's got a lot of headwind next season.

FearlessF · « **Reply #10 on:** June 16, 2022, 09:04:48 AM »

CWSooner · « **Reply #11 on:** June 16, 2022, 10:41:10 AM »

Quote from: Mr Tulip on June 16, 2022, 09:04:38 AM

A writer has to fill column inches, and you could do worse for readership than speculate about the resurgence of a power. I just don't think Lincoln Riley built much at OU. I think he sort of stood over the Stoops era (a different era both in coaching and football landscape) and watched it erode. I'll be surprised if this is what USC is really looking for long term.

Venables could work out. There's no reason to say he won't, other than sheer blind odds that any new coach gets. I'm just thinking he's got a lot of headwind next season.

I agree with your assessment of Riley at OU. When he came in as the OC, he helped revive recruiting, and that was good. And he got creative with the offense, and that was good. But as HFC, he didn't maintain the program that he inherited. I think OC is the position he's best suited for.

I don't think he'll do as much for USC as the USC fans think/hope that he will. I suspect that he sees USC as his stepping-stone to the NFL.

OU's head coaching history is perhaps not the norm for a P5 program in that the most successful ones have not previously been head coaches. In 1946, Jim Tatum, who had been an assistant to Don Faurot at Iowa Pre-Flight during WWII, was hired on the condition that he bring in as his assistant Bud Wilkinson, who had also coached under Faurot at Iowa Pre-Flight. Tatum got the program headed in the right direction with an 8-3 season, including a win in the Gator Bowl. But Tatum quarreled with the AD over control of the ~~recruiting~~ slush fund, and left for Maryland. Wilkinson was elevated to head coach and had a great 17-year run. When he left after the '63 season, his assistant Gomer Jones was elevated to head coach and failed, 6-4-1 and 3-7. In 1966, Arkansas assistant Jim McKenzie was hired, bringing fellow Arkansas assistants Chuck Fairbanks and Barry Switzer with him, and got things back on the right track at 6-4 (in the process, ending Texas' 8-game winning streak in Dallas), then died of a heart attack. Fairbanks became the head coach and had a good 6-year run, finishing with 11-1 seasons in 1971 and '72. Switzer then became head coach and had a great 18-year run. His assistant Gary Gibbs took over, had five decent years, then a crappy one, and got fired. Howard Schnellenberger, successful head coach, had a mediocre 5-5-1 season, and alienated the administration and fan base in the process, so he was fired. Former assistant John Blake was hired and was a miserable failure, producing the worst 3-year stretch in program history. Then came Bob Stoops, never a head coach, and had a great 18-year run. He brought in Lincoln Riley, who had a very good (albeit declining) 5-year run.

So, starting with Tatum, OU has hired eight never-been-HFC guys as HFC, and five of them have been successful. Three of them--Wilkinson, Switzer, and Stoops--are in the CFB HoF. It doesn't prove that Brent Venables will be successful, and maybe he won't be. But it might explain why OU has been willing to go that route much more often than it has searched for a man who has previously been a successful head coach.

P.S. I see that Jim Tatum is also in the CFB HoF. Also, in his one year at OU, he brought in several guys who would go on to successful head-coaching careers. The most notable of them was Darrell Royal.

CWSooner · « **Reply #12 on:** June 16, 2022, 10:44:41 AM »

Fighting Irish Wire
Phil Steele releases college football preseason top 10
Nick Shepkowski
Wed, June 15, 2022, 10:52 PM

If you’re a diehard college football fan you’re probably familiar with the name Phil Steele.

Steele produces what many, myself included, refer to as the annual bible of college football as his preview magazine is loaded with information based on both metrics and word of mouth. When Steele’s magazine hits the news stands you can tell that college football is officially nearing.

For now, unless you live in Denver you aren’t able to get the hard copy of Steele’s 2022 magazine but you can get the digital version right now on his webpage. Without giving out too many details, here is how Steele’s top 10 shakes out ahead of the 2022 season.

10. Oregon

9. Texas A&M

8. Oklahoma

7. Notre Dame

6. Utah

5. Michigan

4. Clemson

3. Georgia

2. Ohio State

1. Alabama

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/sports/phil-steele-releases-college-football-035234543.html

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #13 on:** June 16, 2022, 10:48:19 AM »

Quote from: Mr Tulip on June 15, 2022, 05:49:31 PM

Just about everything on the upcoming season's version of the Oklahoma Sooners is new. I don't understand why this should translate to: "Everything will be great!".

As an outsider who almost certainly knows less about returning starters and whatnot for not only OU but the rest of the B12 as well, I look at it this way:

I had to double-check for the post above but I already knew that OU has flat dominated the B12 for basically the 20-odd years since Stoops arrived:

They've been in 12 of the 16 B12CG's starting with 2000 and won 11 of them. Their only CG loss was that shocking upset to KSU that didn't even keep them out of the BCSNCG back in 2003. Also, in the six years that the B12CG was on hiatus the Sooners finished:

2 GB in 2011
tied for 1st in 2012
1 GB in 2013
3 GB in 2014
Outright Champs in 2015
Outright Champs in 2016

So by my count, in the 22 years from 2000-2021 the Sooners won 14 league titles and they were reasonably close in each of the other eight years. You may be right but based on almost a quarter-century of performance even a "bad" year for OU could still be a B12 Championship. I may have missed a year but looking through standings I think Oklahoma's worst year since prior to 2000 was a 5-3, 3 games back finish. That is an amazing level of consistency. Not even Bama in the SEC and tOSU in the B1G have that level of domination in their leagues.

As an outsider I just look at the B12 and assume that Oklahoma will win it unless and until there are results on the field that bring that into question. For better than two decades that has been the safe bet.

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Topic: B12 Fans, what do you say about Oklahoma

medinabuckeye1

B12 Fans, what do you say about Oklahoma

CWSooner

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longhorn320

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Mr Tulip

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medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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CWSooner

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CWSooner

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CWSooner

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Mr Tulip

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FearlessF

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CWSooner

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CWSooner

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medinabuckeye1

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