~Soccer Thread~

[Brutus Buckeye]

And, KC is out. 

[SFBadger96]

Good tilt for the league title in the Premier League for the first time in a few years; but 3-6 can't seem to get out of each other's way fast enough. Tottenham looks to be in good shape for third, but Chelsea, Aresenal, and ManU all have a shot at 4th (and an outside shot at 3rd)--and all have tough games remaining.

And for the first time in a while, Bayern isn't a lock to win the Bundesliga.

France, Spain, and Italy are up to their usual tricks without any drama.

[rolltidefan]

spurs have cl to contend with and are extremely thin. they have a favorable run in, but with injuries it's going to be a tough juggle to stay in contention for cl and stay above water in pl.

good news is all 3 other contenders dropped points this weekend as well. let's hope their form keep up.

[SFBadger96]

Chelsea, Man-U, and Arsenal all looked like they wanted someone else to move up this weekend--much worse outcomes than Tottenham's loss to City. I think Man-U's loss was the worst outcome of the three, but none were what their teams faithful wanted to see this close to the end in a race that is this close. Man-U has City to deal with tomorrow, and has Chelsea left to go. Chelsea has Man-U, Watford, and Leicester. Arsenal has two more in the top 10 (Leicester and Wolverhampton), and Tottenham's best remaining game is Everton (which looks tough). 

Seems like Tottenham and Arsenal have the inside track, but yeah, they are all looking like damaged goods.

[rolltidefan]

it's like hot potato right now, no one wants it.

[SFBadger96]

Odds are it finishes the way it is now, with Tottenham and Chelsea taking 3rd and 4th, but Aresenal and ManU have the easiest remaining games, and it's easy to see how they trip into the remaining Champions League positions. All four have been tanking in spectacular fashion.

[rolltidefan]

max possible points (current points):
spurs 76 (70)
chelsea 74 (68)
arsenal 72 (66)
Man U 71 (65)

spurs have a substantial lead on goal diff, so 2 points very likely get them in top 4. 3 points is a lock, 2 and they are comfortable, 1 pt and still in ok shape with the goal diff. with bournemouth away and everton at home, it's not guaranteed, but likely.

chelsea have watford at home and leicester away. that's a tough final 2 matches. they need at least 3 to stay in contention, imo.

arsenal have brighton at home and burnley away. i would expect at least 4 points from that. should put a lot of pressure on chelsea to get a win.

man u have huddersfield and cardiff. should be 6 points. still will be unlikely even with the 6.

[rolltidefan]

and, of course, big champions league semi final today with ajax. i'd expect spurs to sit back, look for clean sheet and maybe sneak out with a win from counter attacks. their attacker threat is depleted with kane injured and son suspended for the first leg. but ajax have made stronger clubs pay at home.

[SFBadger96]

I agree with you on everything, except both ManU and Aresenal's ability to fail to capture points against bad teams. At this point, it wouldn't surprise me. I agree that Spurs should be in; I think Chelsea is more likely than not last in.

[Brutus Buckeye]

FWIW Monterrey won the N American (Concacaf) Champions League. 

The 2020 qualifications are a little different with only Mexico(4), USA(4) and Canada(1) getting auto-bids. The C American/Caribbean countries have to qualify through a pair of international qualification Tournaments. 

Mexico gets their fall and spring finalists. So America and Cruz Azul qualified through their fall tourney. Spring is tbd. If one or both of them make it back to the spring final then the remaining bids are doled out using the aggregate Liga MX standings from spring and fall combined. 

Canada gets the Voyageurs Cup winner only. 

USA gets the MLS Cup winner, the US Open Cup winner, the Supporters Shield winner, and the top team in the division opposite the Supporters Shield winner. If one team wins multiple qualifiers, or if one or more Canadian teams win them, then the remaining USA field will be filled out using MLS regular season standings (points). 

So the key qualification tournaments remaining are the Liga MX spring tourney (both finalists), the US Open Cup winner, the Voyageurs Cup (Canadian) winner, the MLS Playoff winner, the Caribbean Championship winner, and the top six teams from the Concacaf League Tourney (C America+). 

[SFBadger96]

...ManU and Arsenal's ability to fail to capture points against bad teams...

As I was saying.

Arsenal isn't technically eliminated, but it is practically eliminated (in addition to winning while Spurs lose, it needs an 8-goal swing, I think, in goal differential).

[rolltidefan]

that's correct. as a spurs supporter, i'm not sure if i should be elated or prepare myself for the unlike but inevitable 8 point swing next weekend.

think i'll just focus on the ucl semi for now. Ajax up 1-0 on agg, with an away goal. still, it's a clear and achievable path to the finals for spurs, though certainly not easy.

[rolltidefan]

if you didn't watch the semi finals of the ucl, you missed some instant classics. man, as a spurs supporter, still shaking. can't believe it.

[Brutus Buckeye]

The Dayton Dutch Lions beat the Erie Commodores in the opening round of the 2019 US Open Cup. So they will get to lock horns with ELA's Pittsburgh Riverhounds of the USL in round 2 on May 14th. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_U.S._Open_Cup