~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[847badgerfan]

They aren't typical Wisconsin, but they have more talent than their record.

BaB answered pretty thoroughly above, but this is just not true.

The entire 2015 class is essentially a bust - even 4* Pritzl and 3* Ivarson. Wildly inconsistent and would not be playing as much as they are had King and Trice not gone down early in the season.

2016 was Trice and Ford. Trice (low 3* out for the season) and low 3* Ford is just OK. He's getting better.

2017 brought us 4* Davison, 4* Reuvers and 3* Kobe King (out of season).

Happ was the only 2014 recruit - a 3* kid with offers from UW-Milwaukee and UW-Green Bay.

Bo found one there, but man, did he whiff the following year. Pritzl and Ivarson have a chance to get better for next year, but I'm not holding out much hope.

Davison is a good player. He's also playing with one arm and has all season.

UW needs a really good grad transfer. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Boy, Penn State really has OSU's number this year.

I really don't get it.  Ohio State has played Iowa and Penn State twice and every other B1G team once each.  Against the 12 B1G teams not named Penn State the Buckeyes are 13-0 with two wins over Iowa and one each over the other 11.  Against Penn State the Buckeyes are 0-2.  For their part, Penn State is 2-0 against Ohio State and 7-6 against everybody else.  

[FearlessF]

even though the ball is round

basketball doesn't always make sense

upsets happen

[medinabuckeye1]

We had a few surprises last night.  The Wisconsin win was an upset (per the tiers).  The Penn State win wasn't, but it still surprised me.  

To review, the tiers (with +/- for upsets):

• Michigan State -1, Purdue -2
• Nebraska, Ohio State even (+1, -1)
• Michigan +2, Maryland, Penn State -1 (+1, -2)
• Indiana +2, Northwestern +2, Wisconsin +1 (+3, -2), Minnesota -1 (+1, -2)
• Iowa +1, Rutgers -1, Illinois -2

The upsets so far have been:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
4-Dec	UW	@	PSU
6-Jan	IU	@	MN
11-Jan	IA	@	ILL
13-Jan	M	@	MSU
15-Jan	MN	@	PSU
23-Jan	NU	@	MN
25-Jan	PSU	@	tOSU
1-Feb	NU	@	UW
5-Feb	IU	@	RU
7-Feb	tOSU	@	PU
8-Feb	UW	@	ILL
11-Feb	M	@	UW
15-Feb	UW	vs	PU

That yields the following projected final standings and seeds for the BTT at MSG in NYC (now that we are down to 3-4 games left I have added remaining games and projected results for those games):

• 16-2/28-3 Michigan State (W at NU, W vsILL, W @UW)
• 15-3/24-7 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on H2H, won in W. Lafayette) (L @M, W vsRU, W @IU)
• 15-3/26-5 Purdue (W vsPSU, W @ILL, W vsMN)
• 14-4/23-8 Nebraska (W @ILL, W vsIU, W vsPSU)
• 11-7/22-9 Michigan (W vstOSU, L @PSU, L @UMD)
• 10-8/20-11 Penn State (L @PU, W vsM, L @UNL)
• 8-10/15-15 Indiana (wins H2H2H tiebreaker with UMD and NU) (L @IA, L @UNL, L vstOSU)
• 8-10/19-12 Maryland (loses to IU in H2H2H tiebreaker with IU and NU, beats NU based on record against Michigan) (W vsRU, L @NU, W vsM)
• 8-10/17-14 Northwestern (L vsMSU, W vsUMD, W vsUW, L @IA)
• 6-12/13-18 Wisconsin (W vsMN, L @NU, L vsMSU)
• 5-13/14-17 Iowa (W vsIU, L @MN, W vsNU)
• 4-14/15-16 Minnesota (wins H2H tiebreaker with RU, no game in Picastaway) (L @UW, W vsIA, L @PU)
• 4-14/14-17 Rutgers (L @UMD, L @tOSU, W vsILL)
• 2-16/12-19 Illinois (L vsUNL, L @MSU, L vsPU, L @RU)

That would yield the following match-ups in the BTT at MSG in NYC:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Iowa vs #14 Illinois, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Rutgers, 5:30pm, BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Michigan vs MN/RU, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Penn State vs IA/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Indiana vs #10 Wisconsin, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Maryalnd vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Michigan State vs UMD/NU, noon, BTN
• #2 Ohio State vs IU/UW, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Purdue vs PSU/IA/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Nebraska vs M/MN/RU, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• MSU/UMD/NU vs UNL/M/MN/RU, 2pm, CBS
• tOSU/IU/UW vs PU/PSU/IA/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• MSU/UMD/NU/UNL/M/MN/RU vs tOSU/IU/UW/PU/PSU/IA/IL, 4:30pm, CBS  (Note to Brutus:  Yesterday's results significantly decreased the chances of an Ohio State vs Michigan game occurring in the BTT at MSG in NYC)

[medinabuckeye1]

even though the ball is round

basketball doesn't always make sense

upsets happen

I get that, I just threw the 13-0 vs 7-6 against the rest of the league in there to make it abundantly clear that Ohio State is a much better team.  In spite of that Penn State has now defeated Ohio State twice and I'm not sure if it is:

• A match-up issue:  I don't think so, at least not entirely.  
• Just dumb luck:  Upsets happen.  
• Something else?

[medinabuckeye1]

In the month of February the Badgers have suddenly become the toughest team in the conference to predict.  There have been six upsets (per the tiers) in the month of February and four of them have involved Wisconsin:

• Wisconsin's upset home loss to Northwestern on 2/1
• Wisconsin's upset road win over Illinois on 2/8
• Wisconsin's upset home loss to Michigan on 2/11
• Wisconsin's upset home win over Purdue on 2/15

Usually at this time of year if a team is involved in a lot of upsets they are either one way or the other, Ie:

• A team with a lot of good wins earlier in the season has declined due to injuries or whatever and is now losing games we don't expect them to lose, or
• A team with a lot of bad losses earlier in the season has improved due to being young or getting guys back from suspension/injury and is now winning games we don't expect them to win.  

Neither is the case with Wisconsin.  Instead they are just randomly and unpredictably winning games they should lose and losing games they should win.  They have played five games in the month of February and only the road loss to Maryland went as we projected.  

[ELA]

BaB answered pretty thoroughly above, but this is just not true.

The entire 2015 class is essentially a bust - even 4* Pritzl and 3* Ivarson. Wildly inconsistent and would not be playing as much as they are had King and Trice not gone down early in the season.

2016 was Trice and Ford. Trice (low 3* out for the season) and low 3* Ford is just OK. He's getting better.

2017 brought us 4* Davison, 4* Reuvers and 3* Kobe King (out of season).

Happ was the only 2014 recruit - a 3* kid with offers from UW-Milwaukee and UW-Green Bay.

Bo found one there, but man, did he whiff the following year. Pritzl and Ivarson have a chance to get better for next year, but I'm not holding out much hope.

Davison is a good player. He's also playing with one arm and has all season.

UW needs a really good grad transfer.

Well, with Wisconsin, I don't really care about stars.  Like I said, they aren't typical Wisconsin, but there is enough there that they should at least be an NIT team.  

[medinabuckeye1]

In Lunardi's latest bracketology we still have the same four teams in but there are changes in seed/location and changes with our bubble teams:

• 2-seed Purdue (down from a 1-seed), still projecting in the Midwest and opening up in Detroit
• 3-seed Michigan State, in the East and opening up in Pittsburgh
• 4-seed Ohio State now in the South and opening up in Boise
• 7-seed Michigan (down from a 6-seed), now in the West and opening up in wichita

Nebraska is now the first team out.  

Penn State is now among the "Next Four Out" and listed second so theoretically they are the sixth team out.  

FWIW:  Penn State has now won six of their last seven including a win over Maryland and two wins over Ohio State.  Additionally, their only loss since mid-January is a "good" loss in East Lansing.  Next they travel to West Lafayette to face a reeling Purdue team that has now lost three straight and hasn't looked like a great team since mid-January.  

On January 20 Purdue was coming off of a ridiculous blowout win at Iowa and looked unstoppable.  We were talking about whether or not they could go 18-0.  That same day Penn State lost at Northwestern.  It was their second straight loss and third in four games with really none of them being "good" losses.  They looked absolutely dead in the water.  

On January 21 I think most of us would have picked PU to win the 2/18 PSU@PU game by 20+.  Now, I'm not so sure.  I wouldn't bet on Penn State but at the same time, I'm hardly confident in Purdue.  

[ELA]

even though the ball is round

basketball doesn't always make sense

upsets happen

In a week I've gone from "well, unless OSU pulls off a crazy comeback in Mackey, MSU's Big 10 title hopes probably die tonight," to "if UM can win at home over OSU, MSU controls it's own destiny to be sole Big Ten champs, and has room for error now to at least be co-champs."

[847badgerfan]

• A team with a lot of good wins earlier in the season has declined due to injuries or whatever and is now losing games we don't expect them to lose, or
• A team with a lot of bad losses earlier in the season has improved due to being young or getting guys back from suspension/injury and is now winning games we don't expect them to win.  

Neither is the case with Wisconsin.   

That's close, but it's also not that simple.

UW started pretty OK, but a monster schedule prevented them from having many wins. 

They played Xavier (lost by 10), Baylor (lost by 5), UCLA (lost by 2) all in a row. Virginia and Marquette were the other losses but those occurred after losing King and Trice.

I think they have improved. Davison and Reuvers are true freshmen, and the latter didn't play until game 6 as he was supposed to take a shirt this year.

What has not improved are the juniors. 

UW will be better next year. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I get that, I just threw the 13-0 vs 7-6 against the rest of the league in there to make it abundantly clear that Ohio State is a much better team.  In spite of that Penn State has now defeated Ohio State twice and I'm not sure if it is:

• A match-up issue:  I don't think so, at least not entirely.  
• Just dumb luck:  Upsets happen.  
• Something else?

Maybe there is another explanation that makes sense:
Maybe Penn State has just improved and Ohio State was just unlucky enough to get them twice late in the season. On January 20 Penn State lost their second straight, third in four, and fourth in six, and fifth in eight and just looked awful. Since then they are 6-1 with the only loss being a reasonably close (8 points) "good" loss in East Lansing. The six wins have included the two against Ohio State, a win over Maryland, and blowout wins over RU, IA, and IL. Even if you ignore the two PSU/tOSU games and just look at the other five of Penn State's last seven games they still look easily like a tournament team over that stretch.

[Entropy]

Did Purdue peak too early?

[FearlessF]

Well, I won't call OSU's first loss dumb luck, because PSU had a good lead late in the game, 
BUT, tony carr didn't call glass with less than 3 seconds left from just inside the half court line

[PSUinNC]

In Lunardi's latest bracketology we still have the same four teams in but there are changes in seed/location and changes with our bubble teams:

• 2-seed Purdue (down from a 1-seed), still projecting in the Midwest and opening up in Detroit
• 3-seed Michigan State, in the East and opening up in Pittsburgh
• 4-seed Ohio State now in the South and opening up in Boise
• 7-seed Michigan (down from a 6-seed), now in the West and opening up in wichita

Nebraska is now the first team out.  

Penn State is now among the "Next Four Out" and listed second so theoretically they are the sixth team out.  

FWIW:  Penn State has now won six of their last seven including a win over Maryland and two wins over Ohio State.  Additionally, their only loss since mid-January is a "good" loss in East Lansing.  Next they travel to West Lafayette to face a reeling Purdue team that has now lost three straight and hasn't looked like a great team since mid-January.  

On January 20 Purdue was coming off of a ridiculous blowout win at Iowa and looked unstoppable.  We were talking about whether or not they could go 18-0.  That same day Penn State lost at Northwestern.  It was their second straight loss and third in four games with really none of them being "good" losses.  They looked absolutely dead in the water.  

On January 21 I think most of us would have picked PU to win the 2/18 PSU@PU game by 20+.  Now, I'm not so sure.  I wouldn't bet on Penn State but at the same time, I'm hardly confident in Purdue.  

I think my Nits are an awfully confident and dangerous bunch right now.  They MUST get the Michigan game at home and win either at Purdue or UNL, then win minimum two in the tourney (get to the semis).  Expect MSG to have a blue and white tint to it if this team comes in that hot.
If for some strange reason PSU wins out in the regular season (unlikely), I think two wins at MSG puts them in solidly.  Their last 10 record would totally trump the bad losses to Minnesota and Rider at home and some other missed opportunitities.
RPI's gotta get up tho.  Jumped up 12 with the win last night to 75, but it must be in the low 50's AT WORST to be considered, and I'm not sure how they get it into the 40's at this point without a bit of help.