~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[bayareabadger]

How does Purdue not drop after losing 2 games?  I was shocked to see they have the #1 seed when the NCAA released their top 16.

ELA ... loved your comment about 6 games in 7 days would get big Jim on board.  Are we going to have this bs Friday/ Monday crap next year with FS1?

Bracket projections are built on resumes. 
Losing to Very good teams won’t hurt that much, and you need four teams to have better resumes. At the moment, they couldn’t find four. 

[bayareabadger]

I've noticed that polls/seedings have slowly morphed into power ratings.  If somebody has concluded that Purdue is a #1 seed, the modern tendency seems to be to ignore losses.  That's a big change from most of my fanhood.
I still can't believe Virginia lost on Saturday and yet rose to #1 in the polls on Monday...

I think it’s more of a body of work thing. Rankings historically were highly reactionary. That seems to have dropped off. The top-16 release also seemed to have an effect. 
I mean, Purdue had some cushion, they lost a pair of crazy games to top 10 teams. And they fell three AP spots. 

[847badgerfan]

It would be very bad for Purdue if the lose tonight, but I'm in favor of that scenario. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Thanks Medina.

Since that scenario doesn't require an OSU loss to Michigan, it is the scenario that I will be pulling for.

You are welcome.  
Vis-a-vis Michigan's seed:
It would be extremely unlikely for Michigan to move up to the #3 seed.  It is mathematically possible but only if:

• Michigan wins out and Michigan State loses out and Nebraska loses at least twice (because Michigan would win a tie with MSU at 13-5), or
• Michigan wins out and Purdue loses out and Nebraska loses at least twice (because Michigan would then be 13-5 and Purdue 12-6.  

Even moving up to the #4 seed is not terribly likely.  The Wolverines are only one game behind #4 Nebraska but they lost in Lincoln in the only meeting of those teams this year so for seeding purposes they are effectively two games behind Nebraska.  Worse, we project Nebraska to win out (@ILL, vsIU, vsPSU) and Michigan cannot overtake them in the seeding order unless they lose at least two games.  

Thus, the 5-seed is more-than-likely Michigan's ceiling.  

Michigan is currently a game-and-a-half ahead of PSU and two games ahead of IU.  They play both teams only once each having already defeated Indiana in Ann Arbor (way back in December) and travelling to Penn State a week from yesterday.  

Since Michigan is two games ahead of the Hoosiers AND would win a tie with them, there is almost no chance of Michigan being seeded behind Indiana (M would have to lose out AND IU would have to win out).  

Northwestern could theoretically tie the Wolverines and they are 1-1 H2H.  The next tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, then the next, etc and if that happened I think that Northwestern would win the tie based on their win over PSU but I'm not sure and it really is irrelevant because for it to happen Northwestern would have to win out AND Michigan would have to lose out.  

I think that Michigan's only realistic competitor for the #5 seed is Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are a game-and-a-half down but the two teams have yet to play and when they do play it will be on Penn State's court.  If Penn State wins that game then they would have the tiebreaker.  Then it would depend largely on what happens in Ohio State's next two games (@PSU, @M).  

[grillrat]

Enjoy:

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

[medinabuckeye1]

Tonight's Ohio State at Penn State game is pretty big for seeding purposes for the top teams and for Penn State's rather limited bubble chances.  

Ohio State is one game ahead of the Spartans and Boilermakers in the loss column and wins all ties so the Buckeyes will get the #1 seed unless they lose at least twice.  Their last four games are:

• @ PSU, tonight
• @ Michigan, Sunday
• vs Rutgers, Tuesday
• @ Indiana, next Friday

The Buckeyes losing in Ann Arbor wouldn't be a shock but they still get the #1 seed unless they lose another game as well.  That probably isn't going to be a home game against Rutgers on Senior night.  Also, if the Buckeyes win tonight and then win in Ann Arbor they could lock up the #1 seed at home against Rutgers.  

For Penn State this is a chance at a desperately needed quality win.  They have the win in Columbus but other than that they don't have much.  They do have plenty of chances with a stretch run of vstOSU, @PU, vsM, @UNL but they also already have six losses in conference and nine overall.  They can't expect an at-large bid with a sub .500 B1G record and even 9-9 wouldn't get them in without some miracles in NYC.  They probably need to go at least 3-1 over their last four to get anywhere near the bubble before NYC so a loss tonight would mean that they would need to win in both West Lafayette and Lincoln.  

The other game pits teams on opposite ends of the conference standings.  

Purdue needs a win to keep up with the leaders and end their now 2-game losing streak.  The Spartans are 13-2 and after tonight the Buckeyes will either be 14-1 or 13-2.  Purdue needs a win to match MSU and either match or at least stay in range of Ohio State.  

Wisconsin is two games ahead of the bottom four in the loss column.  Thus, they will probably avoid having to play on Wednesday of the BTT anyway but a win tonight would all but assure them of that.  With a loss they will only be one game ahead of MN/RU/IA and they still have MSU and a road game at Northwestern remaining.  It could be a close call.  

[847badgerfan]

How far in advance does ESPN set its lineup for games? You'd think they would have wanted OSU/PSU over PU/UW tonight, if they had a choice, no?

I guess what I'm saying is that if the lineup was selected a long time ago, they are not getting what they thought they were tonight. It would take a major upset for UW to even stay in the game tonight.

[ELA]

How far in advance does ESPN set its lineup for games? You'd think they would have wanted OSU/PSU over PU/UW tonight, if they had a choice, no?

I guess what I'm saying is that if the lineup was selected a long time ago, they are not getting what they thought they were tonight. It would take a major upset for UW to even stay in the game tonight.

I don't even know that there is an order of selection anymore.  But yes, most of the times and tv are set preseason.

[FearlessF]

How far in advance does ESPN set its lineup for games? You'd think they would have wanted OSU/PSU over PU/UW tonight, if they had a choice, no?

I guess what I'm saying is that if the lineup was selected a long time ago, they are not getting what they thought they were tonight. It would take a major upset for UW to even stay in the game tonight.

ESPN is getting a pretty good game

[ELA]

This is like a throwback to circa 2007 and 2008 Big Ten basketball

[ELA]

Well tonight is looking good for MSU, bad for the Big Ten.

[847badgerfan]

How far in advance does ESPN set its lineup for games? You'd think they would have wanted OSU/PSU over PU/UW tonight, if they had a choice, no?

I guess what I'm saying is that if the lineup was selected a long time ago, they are not getting what they thought they were tonight. It would take a major upset for UW to even stay in the game tonight.

Dumbass. Hehehe.

I guess Big Frank being there made a difference.

Been a LONG time since I've seen UW students rush the court. I guess it's OK, for this season.

[FearlessF]

Corngrats to Bucky

Nice win on welcome back Frank night - ESPN

[ELA]

As I said, three of the last four on the road, against teams with underachieving talent still makes me nervous.  Evanston and Madison are still going to be a bear.