Nebraska debuts in Lunardi's latest Bracketology as the 8th team out. Maryland no longer listed though. Purdue, MSU and UM hold as 1, 2 and 8 seeds, OSU down from a 3 to a 4
For all the complaining about the refs, I really think it was the B1G schedulers that did in the Terrapins. If you look at their
rpi sheet from the worldwide leader, they really only have the one bad loss (at Indiana) and even that wasn't terrible. It was a road game and decided by a single possession. Maryland's problem is on the other side of things, they have a critical shortage of quality wins. According to ESPN, their only quality wins were over RPI-24 Butler on November 15 and RPI-88 Bucknell on November 18. In the nearly three months since then they haven't beaten a team in the top-100.
Here is where the schedule hurts them:
Their only home losses in that time were to Purdue and Michigan State. Those are two teams that a lot of people think are two of the best in the country, currently projected as a 1-seed (Purdue) and a 2-seed (MSU).
The Terrapins' other conference losses were road games against PU, MSU, tOSU, M, and IU. The problem for them is that they do not get either Ohio State or Nebraska at home. Those are two opponents where a home game might be winnable and the win would be a quality win.
In their remaining schedule the Terrapins only have two more games against RPI top-100 teams:
- @ #57 Nebraska on February 13
- vs #34 Michigan on February 24.
If the Terrapins win out they'll finish 11-7/22-9 with only one bad loss (the aforementioned IU game). Their problem is that they'll still only have four quality wins. Right now they are:
- 1-5 against the RPI top-25 with no games left.
- 1-7 against the RPI top-50 with only the Michigan game left.
- 2-8 against the RPI top-100 with only Nebraska and Michigan left.
- 5-9 against the RPI top-150 with only #34 Michigan, #57 Nebraska, #101 Northwestern(2x), #105 Penn State, and #142 Wisconsin left.
Thus, even winning out would only get them to:
- 1-5 against the top-25.
- 2-7 against the top-50.
- 4-8 against the top-100.
- 11-9 against the top-150.
IMHO, they would still have a lot of work to do in the BTT at MSG in NYC. Frankly, the only reason that I think that *might* get them on the bubble is that they would be on a seven game winning streak. If they then went 2-1 in the BTT they'd be 9-1 in their "last 10".
11-7 would most likely get them either the 5-seed or the 6-seed. They would have games:
- Thursday against a bad team (either the 11/14 winner or the 12/13 winner).
- Friday against a quality opponent (either the 3-seed (most likely Ohio State) or the 4-seed (most likely Nebraska).
- Saturday against either the 2/7/10 winner or the 1/8/9 winner. This would most likely be either Purdue or Michigan State. A hypothetical 11-7 Terrapin team would need a win in this semi-final to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
