~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[ELA]

Something about preseason expectations.  OSU-Clemson was actually a much bigger game than we thought it was at the time.

[grillrat]

Heck, even in-season expectations change.  Paraphrasing the CBS rankings article today, it said that Purdue and Arizona entered the 7th / 8th place game for the Battle for Atlantis tournament with a combined record of 7-4 with losses to Western Kentucky, SMU, and NC State.  Both had dropped out of the top 25.

Fast forward two months and the two teams have gone 33-1 since then.

[medinabuckeye1]

Nebraska debuts in Lunardi's latest Bracketology as the 8th team out.  Maryland no longer listed though.  Purdue, MSU and UM hold as 1, 2 and 8 seeds, OSU down from a 3 to a 4

For all the complaining about the refs, I really think it was the B1G schedulers that did in the Terrapins.  If you look at their rpi sheet from the worldwide leader, they really only have the one bad loss (at Indiana) and even that wasn't terrible.  It was a road game and decided by a single possession.  Maryland's problem is on the other side of things, they have a critical shortage of quality wins.  According to ESPN, their only quality wins were over RPI-24 Butler on November 15 and RPI-88 Bucknell on November 18.  In the nearly three months since then they haven't beaten a team in the top-100.  
Here is where the schedule hurts them:
Their only home losses in that time were to Purdue and Michigan State.  Those are two teams that a lot of people think are two of the best in the country, currently projected as a 1-seed (Purdue) and a 2-seed (MSU).  
The Terrapins' other conference losses were road games against PU, MSU, tOSU, M, and IU.  The problem for them is that they do not get either Ohio State or Nebraska at home.  Those are two opponents where a home game might be winnable and the win would be a quality win.  
In their remaining schedule the Terrapins only have two more games against RPI top-100 teams:

• @ #57 Nebraska on February 13
• vs #34 Michigan on February 24.  

If the Terrapins win out they'll finish 11-7/22-9 with only one bad loss (the aforementioned IU game).  Their problem is that they'll still only have four quality wins.  Right now they are:

• 1-5 against the RPI top-25 with no games left.  
• 1-7 against the RPI top-50 with only the Michigan game left.  
• 2-8 against the RPI top-100 with only Nebraska and Michigan left.  
• 5-9 against the RPI top-150 with only #34 Michigan, #57 Nebraska, #101 Northwestern(2x), #105 Penn State, and #142 Wisconsin left.  

Thus, even winning out would only get them to:

• 1-5 against the top-25.  
• 2-7 against the top-50.  
• 4-8 against the top-100.  
• 11-9 against the top-150.  

IMHO, they would still have a lot of work to do in the BTT at MSG in NYC.  Frankly, the only reason that I think that *might* get them on the bubble is that they would be on a seven game winning streak.  If they then went 2-1 in the BTT they'd be 9-1 in their "last 10".  

11-7 would most likely get them either the 5-seed or the 6-seed.  They would have games:

• Thursday against a bad team (either the 11/14 winner or the 12/13 winner).  
• Friday against a quality opponent (either the 3-seed (most likely Ohio State) or the 4-seed (most likely Nebraska).  
• Saturday against either the 2/7/10 winner or the 1/8/9 winner.  This would most likely be either Purdue or Michigan State.  A hypothetical 11-7 Terrapin team would need a win in this semi-final to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.  

[FearlessF]

Maryland isn't going to win out

the Refs won't allow it

[medinabuckeye1]

Maryland isn't going to win out

the Refs won't allow it

Well obviously!
Nebraska has a similar problem.  Per the worldwide leader's RPI sheet for them, their only RPI top-50 win was their 20 point home win over Michigan.  Their only other top-100 win was their win over Boston College way back in November.  
Similar to Maryland, the Cornhuskers only have one bad loss, in this case a one possession road loss to #105 Penn State.  The problem is that most of their quality opponents have been on the road.  Nebraska's only home games against RPI top-100 teams were the wins over Michigan and Boston College and that one point loss to Kansas.  Other than that, they have:

• a 12 point road loss to #8 Purdue
• a 5 point road loss to #22 Ohio State
• a 29 point road loss to #23 Michigan State
• a 10 point road loss to #27 Creighton
• a 9 point neutral site loss to #69 UCF
• a 23 point road loss to #91 St. Johns

Much like Maryland, Nebraska doesn't have a lot of chances to improve things.  They are:

• 0-4 against the RPI top-25 with no games left.  
• 1-5 against the RPI top-50 with no games left.  
• 2-7 against the RPI top-100 with only #56 Maryland left.  
• 7-8 against the RPI top-150 with Maryland, #105 Penn State, #117 Indiana, and #120 Minnesota left.  Their other two remaining games are against #151 Illinois and #191 Rutgers.  

Thus, even if they win out, they'll be:

• 0-4 against the top-25.  
• 1-5 against the top-50.  
• 3-7 against the top-100.  
• 11-8 against the top-150.  

That isn't great and it is why they probably have to win out.  A loss to Maryland wouldn't be terrible but it would deprive them of a much needed quality win and losses in any of their other remaining games would be problematic.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Those refs are sneaky. 

Somehow they have screwed Maryland despite the NCAA statistics showing Maryland is the 41st-fewest fouls per game in the entire NCAA, and the 4th-fewest fouls per game in the B1G. They are doing such a good job of timing their fouls appropriately to hide their screw-job!

[FearlessF]

calling fouls is only one way the refs can affect the outcome of the game

what about all the obvious fouls they don't call on the Terps opponents?  These lead to tons of turnovers and transition baskets .

and then there are all those 50/50 calls deciding possession?

and technicals against Terp players and coaches

 

[FearlessF]

Well obviously!
Nebraska has a similar problem.  

That isn't great and it is why they probably have to win out.  A loss to Maryland wouldn't be terrible but it would deprive them of a much needed quality win and losses in any of their other remaining games would be problematic.  

this is elementary......
the Huskers are 8-4 with Big Ten Refs
the Terps are 4-7 with Big Ten Refs
it's a Husker home game, probably with their favorite ref crew
there's no way the refs will allow the Terps to win in the Vault in Lincoln
especially when it's the best chance for Delaney to get an extra team into the Big Dance  
and the refs just love Tim Miles - who doesn't?

[mcwterps1]

You're learning.

[FearlessF]

I am coachable

[Brutus Buckeye]

Weren't the Big Ten refs supposed to put Wisconsin in the CFB Playoffs by handing them the Big Ten Ccg on a silver platter? 

[FearlessF]

they will never work in the P5 again

[JerseyTerrapin]

Well obviously!
Nebraska has a similar problem.  Per the worldwide leader's RPI sheet for them, their only RPI top-50 win was their 20 point home win over Michigan.  Their only other top-100 win was their win over Boston College way back in November.  
Similar to Maryland, the Cornhuskers only have one bad loss, in this case a one possession road loss to #105 Penn State.  The problem is that most of their quality opponents have been on the road.  Nebraska's only home games against RPI top-100 teams were the wins over Michigan and Boston College and that one point loss to Kansas.  Other than that, they have:

• a 12 point road loss to #8 Purdue
• a 5 point road loss to #22 Ohio State
• a 29 point road loss to #23 Michigan State
• a 10 point road loss to #27 Creighton
• a 9 point neutral site loss to #69 UCF
• a 23 point road loss to #91 St. Johns

Much like Maryland, Nebraska doesn't have a lot of chances to improve things.  They are:

• 0-4 against the RPI top-25 with no games left.  
• 1-5 against the RPI top-50 with no games left.  
• 2-7 against the RPI top-100 with only #56 Maryland left.  
• 7-8 against the RPI top-150 with Maryland, #105 Penn State, #117 Indiana, and #120 Minnesota left.  Their other two remaining games are against #151 Illinois and #191 Rutgers.  

Thus, even if they win out, they'll be:

• 0-4 against the top-25.  
• 1-5 against the top-50.  
• 3-7 against the top-100.  
• 11-8 against the top-150.  

That isn't great and it is why they probably have to win out.  A loss to Maryland wouldn't be terrible but it would deprive them of a much needed quality win and losses in any of their other remaining games would be problematic.  

Amazing analysis,as usual.

I've already written this year off in all sports -- it's just not our year.  Looking forward to opening day, hosting Texas...

edit: since I quoted the "other" brilliant analysis instead of the Maryland one, I should add that by "our" I meant Terrapins.

[847badgerfan]

Weren't the Big Ten refs supposed to put Wisconsin in the CFB Playoffs by handing them the Big Ten Ccg on a silver platter?

I wish, but it turned out OK. Pounding Miami into submission on their home field was very rewarding.