if the full week of rest helps, they could beat the Gophers on the road and then have some real momentum coming home to the vault
could finish 4th in the conference, but they really struggle with fundamentals and bone head plays for long stretches.
making the tourney would obviously save Miles job, a tourney victory would be crazy
I guess crazy things happen in basketball
What would it take to get Nebraska into the dance?
Here are their remaining games and the projections (per the tiers):
- L @ MN, 2/6
- W vs RU, 2/10
- W vs UMD, 2/13
- W @ IL, 2/18
- W vs IU, 2/20
- W vs PSU, 2/25
That would get them to 13-5/22-9.
As we have discussed they have a potentially problematic lack of quality wins. Their best win (by far) was by 20 at home over Michigan. The flip side of that is that their losses aren't too bad:
- 11/16: @ St. John's by 23: This could be problematic as the Red Storm are currently 0-10 in the BigE but the committee might be willing to overlook that somewhat as this game was way back in November.
- 11/23: vs UCF by 9: UCF isn't great and this was a neutral site game but this isn't a terrible loss and it was way back in November.
- 12/3: @ MSU by 29: The margin is glaring, but the opponent is obviously very good.
- 12/9: vs Creighton by 10: Creighton is 7-3 in the BigE and a likely tournament team.
- 12/16: vs Kansas by 1: This is probably the game the Cornhuskers most wish they could have back. Still, it is about as much of a "good loss" as you can imagine.
- 1/6: @ Purdue by 12: Another loss to a high-end opponent.
- 1/12: @ Penn State by 2 in OT: This isn't great but it was on the road and in OT.
- 1/22: @ Ohio State by 5: Another road loss to a quality opponent.
The Cornhuskers' worst two losses were very early in the season so that might help.
Of the last six games, a road loss to Minnesota or a home loss to Maryland wouldn't be too bad. As long as they only lose one of those and win the rest I think they are at least on the bubble at 13-5/22-9. If they could win out, I think they would be a lock. First off, that would get them a very good 14-4/23-8 record. Secondly, including the wins over RU, IA, and UW it would mean finishing on a nine game winning streak so that when the committee looked at records Nebraska would be 9-1 in their last 10.
I think they *MIGHT* get in at 13-5 with a loss in their BTT opener but it could depend on the opponent they draw. They would likely be the 4-seed* so their opening game would be Friday against either #5 or the 12/13 winner. There is a good chance that would be a ranked and tournament-bound Michigan team. In that case, I think Nebraska might be able to absorb a quick exit from the BTT. Where they maybe couldn't is if either the Nittany Lions get the 5-seed or if the 12/13 winner knocks off #5 on Thursday. I'm not sure that a 13-5/22-9 Nebraska team could absorb a bad loss.
The 4-seed is VERY likely for a hypothetical 13-5 Nebraska. It projects at fourth place one game behind the Buckeyes and three games ahead of the Wolverines and Nittany Lions. If the Buckeyes dropped an extra game it wouldn't make any difference because Nebraska would lose that tie. Additionally, if the Wolverines won three more games that wouldn't make any difference either because Nebraska would win that tie.
