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Topic: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #854 on: January 29, 2018, 03:51:57 PM »
The projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
  • 17-1 Purdue
  • 16-2 Michigan State
  • 14-4 Ohio State
  • 12-6 Nebraska
  • 10-8 Penn State (wins tiebreaker over M based on H2H, no game in Ann Arbor)
  • 10-8 Michigan
  • 8-10 Maryland
If you look at this, it is EXTREMELY favorable to Purdue.  IMHO, the power-ranking of B1G teams is roughly:
  • Purdue or Michigan State
  • the other of #1
  • Ohio State
  • Michigan
  • Maryland
  • Nebraska
  • Penn State?
Now note the way the BTT projects.  Four of the top-five are on one side of the bracket.  It is almost entirely because of scheduling:
  • Nebraska has a very favorable schedule including not playing in Ann Arbor.  That gives them a better projected record than Michigan. 
  • Penn State and Michigan only play once, in State College.  They project to finish in a tie and PSU projects to win that tie on the basis of the projected H2H win.  
Thus, Nebraska and Penn State project to the 4-seed and 5-seed in the BTT.  The current projection is that Purdue would not need to beat any team better than perhaps the 6th best team in the conference to reach the B1GCG.  Michigan State, on the other hand, would likely have to beat the 3rd best team in the semi-final after beating the 5th best team in the quarter-final.  Moreover, if the Spartans did get lucky enough to miss the 3rd best team it would likely only be because they got upset by the 4th best team.  There really isn't a break for the 2-seed.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #855 on: January 29, 2018, 04:05:33 PM »
Hey, the last thing any Purdue fan wants is to have to face Michigan again. I'd much rather be up against UNL or PSU...

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #856 on: January 29, 2018, 05:12:11 PM »
Hey, the last thing any Purdue fan wants is to have to face Michigan again. I'd much rather be up against UNL or PSU...
It isn't just that.  Another angle here is that if #1 gets upset there could be a BIG drop to the next best team on that side of the bracket.  
As a Purdue fan you, of course, realize that this isn't merely a theoretical thing.  The #1 seed has a surprisingly weak history in their opener against the 8/9 winner:
  • 1998 #1 seed MSU lost to #8 MN.  
  • 1999 #1 MSU beat #8 NU by just 2 points.  
  • 2000 #1 tOSU lost to #9 PSU.  
  • 2001 #1 ILL beat #8 PU by 17.  
  • 2002 #1 UW lost to #9 IA.  
  • 2003 #1 UW lost to #8 tOSU.  
  • 2004 #1 ILL beat #8 IU by 12.  
  • 2005 #1 ILL beat #8 NU by 17.  
  • 2006 #1 tOSU beat #8 PSU by 7.  
  • 2007 #1 tOSU beat #8 M by 10.  
  • 2008 #1 UW beat #9 M by 17.  
  • 2009 #1 MSU beat #8 MN by 8.  
  • 2010 #1 tOSU needed a half-court buzzer-beater to beat #8 M by just 1 point.  
  • 2011 #1 tOSU needed OT to beat #8 NU.  
  • 2012 #1 MSU beat #8 IA by 17.  
  • 2013 #1 IU beat #8 ILL by 16.  
  • 2014 #1 M beat #9 ILL by just 1 point.  
  • 2015 #1 UW beat #9 M by 11.  
  • 2016 #1 IU lost to #8 M.  
  • 2017 #1 PU lost to #8 M.  

So in 20 years of B1G Tournaments the #1 seed has either lost to or barely squeaked past the 8/9 winner half of the time.  

ELA

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #857 on: January 29, 2018, 05:34:00 PM »
So random thought I had about the tournament.  We've bitched plenty about the whole week early thing, but an even worse part of it I hadn't thought of til today.

Most of those early tourneys are 1 bid leagues, so even with the layoff, the tourney teams coming out of there played 3-4 games that weekend, so the rest isn't the worst thing in the world.

What are the changes Purdue, OSU, MSU and UM (if it's them) ALL win their Friday game?  I'd say pretty slim.  So for probably at least 1 of those teams, you are playing a Saturday game, then 6 days off, playing a Friday game, then potentially 2 more weeks off before your first tourney game.  That's 1 game in like 19ish days leading up to the tourney.  It's potentially a lot worse than just the extended lay off.  Typically I don't mind MSU going like 2 and out in the event and getting ready for the NCAAs, but this year I think I want MSU to get as much run in as possible, if for no other reason than just getting to Sunday cuts that downtime by 2 days.

ELA

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #858 on: January 29, 2018, 05:47:37 PM »
Updated composite computer poll, 45 rankings (last week in parenthesis)

1.Villanova (1)
2.Virginia (3)
3.PURDUE (2)
4.Duke (4)
5.Kansas (5)
6.MICHIGAN STATE (8)
7.Cincinnati (10)
8.Xavier (9)
9.Auburn (13)
10.North Carolina (6)
11.Texas Tech (14)
12.Tennessee (16)
13.West Virginia (7)
14.Clemson (11)
15.Oklahoma (15)
16.Gonzaga (17)
17.OHIO STATE (12)
18.Arizona (18)
19.Wichita State (21)
20.Kentucky (-)
21.Florida (19)
22.Saint Mary's (22)
23.Florida State (-)
24.Creighton (25)
25.Rhode Island (24)
-
30.Michigan (27)
47.Maryland (39)
61.Nebraska (60)
68.Penn State (77)
76.Minnesota (66)
77.Northwestern (86)
84.Indiana (91)
96.Wisconsin (89)
111.Iowa (111)
114.Illinois (118)
137.Rutgers (120)

847badgerfan

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #859 on: January 29, 2018, 06:04:50 PM »
I remember at least SOME chatter about the B1G scheduling games with conferences that do not do tournaments during that week off. I take it nothing came of this?
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ELA

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #860 on: January 29, 2018, 11:10:05 PM »
Wow, what a final 10 minutes by Nebraska
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 11:35:53 PM by ELA »

bayareabadger

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #861 on: January 29, 2018, 11:16:54 PM »
Wow, what a final 20 minutes by Nebraska
I'm not sure why this team is trying to hurt me so, but God it is. 
Because it's a stupid Monday game, I wasn't watching the start. Only tuned in with about 11 minutes go and UW up 10. What a mess. Badgers gave up a 30-8 run unless my math is off. Blech. 

FearlessF

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #862 on: January 29, 2018, 11:20:45 PM »
Wow, what a final 20 minutes by Nebraska
Iverson's big dunk pissed off the Huskers
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MichiFan87

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #863 on: January 30, 2018, 12:23:14 AM »
For some reason Michigan keeps playing to their competition, or worse, though I guess that's better in the first halves than the second halves. Needless to say, the first half against Northwestern was quite ugly, and the offense finally showed up well enough in the second half.

Another long break until Saturday to prepare for Minnesota so hopefully the rest helps.... I'll be at the rematch in Rosemont next week....

Needless to say, I never thought Michigan's defense would ever be better than its offense under Beilein.... It almost looks like an Amaker team this year....
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 12:26:20 AM by MichiFan87 »
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847badgerfan

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #864 on: January 30, 2018, 06:38:51 AM »
Monday game... I missed it. Probably not a bad thing.

I was just looking and I guess it was on BTN. I don't get why the 8PM start though. All they had on before it was re-runs of Elite or whatever.
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ELA

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #865 on: January 30, 2018, 07:57:57 AM »
Monday game... I missed it. Probably not a bad thing.

I was just looking and I guess it was on BTN. I don't get why the 8PM start though. All they had on before it was re-runs of Elite or whatever.
Didn't want to have it on at the same time as the FS1 Big Ten game.

grillrat

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #866 on: January 30, 2018, 09:37:36 AM »
I admit that it is kinda weird how both Purdue and Michigan had this epic game where neither team could miss, and then they both came out in their next game and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn for a half.  Fortunately, both were able to grind out a win.

ELA

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Re: ~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~
« Reply #867 on: January 30, 2018, 10:46:57 AM »
I admit that it is kinda weird how both Purdue and Michigan had this epic game where neither team could miss, and then they both came out in their next game and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn for a half.  Fortunately, both were able to grind out a win.

 

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