~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[ELA]

And heartbreaking for Ohio State fans.  The Buckeyes fought their way back into a tie game with almost no time left and ballgame.  
Ohio State still projects as the 3-seed in the BTT.  Penn State's upset win moves them into a projected tie with Michigan for 4th/5th and the Nittany Lions would win that tie due to not playing in Ann Arbor this year.  Thus PSU would be the 5-seed and Michigan the 6-seed in the BTT at MSG in NYC.  

I think the "we have no business winning this game...but holy crap, we might...never mind," is just about the worst.  I'd certainly rather get blown out, I might rather blow a lead.  But to reinvest in a game, you had already checked out of, just to lose I think might be the worst.

[medinabuckeye1]

The question going forward for both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions is whether this is a blip, upsets happen, or if this is a sign of a change.  

For the Buckeyes:
As long as this is a blip, it probably doesn't change much.  I thought Lunardi's 2-seed projection was overly-generous anyway.  At this point I think the Buckeyes would have to win out (including winning the BTT at MSG in NYC) or awfully close to it (maybe lose at Purdue) to get a 2-seed.  As long as they don't suffer any more unexpected losses they should be somewhere around a 4/5 seed.  

If this is a sign of things to come, the Cinderella season could be in trouble.  The Buckeyes next host an Indiana team that can be either very good or very bad depending on which night you catch them.  Additionally, the Buckeyes still have road games that could go either way remaining against the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions.  The 9-0 start in the B1G could evaporate quickly down the stretch.  

For the Nittany Lions:
Unless this is a big sign of things to come this will not do anything for PSU's NCAA chances.  We project them to lose three more games:

• @MSU (1/31)
• @Pur (2/18)
• @UNL (2/25)

Additionally, they have home games that could go either way remaining against Maryland, Ohio State, and Michigan.  It is going to take more than one upset to get the Nittany Lions onto the Bubble.  

[Entropy]

Outside of a BIG tourney run where they upset a team or two, I don't see the Huskers making the NCAA tourney.... regardless of how many games they win the rest of the year.   Too many teams with better resumes that won't fall apart.   

[FearlessF]

the only chance the Huskers have is to win their home games starting with Iowa this Saturday evening, win one of 3 on the road.  6 of 8 down the stretch would almost certainly put them in 4th alone in the Big Ten, win the first round tourney game.

The B1G will get 4 teams, just because.  If Michigan falters down the stretch the Huskers could get in by default.

[medinabuckeye1]

the only chance the Huskers have is to win their home games starting with Iowa this Saturday evening, win one of 3 on the road.  6 of 8 down the stretch would almost certainly put them in 4th alone in the Big Ten, win the first round tourney game.

The B1G will get 4 teams, just because.  If Michigan falters down the stretch the Huskers could get in by default.

Ohio State isn't a lock yet either.  It isn't impossible to conjure up a scenario in which Nebraska gets the 3-seed with Ohio State and Michigan in 4th/5th.  In that case the 4/5 game on Friday of the BTT (assuming #5 beats the 12/13 winner on Thursday) might be for the B1G's final NCAA bid because it is hard to see the loser of that game getting in (depending on records of course).  

[FearlessF]

final bid being for the 3rd team or the 4th?

I think the Big gets 4 unless Nebraska/Michigan collapse and no one else goes on a run

[betarhoalphadelta]

https://twitter.com/umhoops/status/956903265421217794

[Riffraft]

The question going forward for both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions is whether this is a blip, upsets happen, or if this is a sign of a change.  

For the Buckeyes:
As long as this is a blip, it probably doesn't change much.  I thought Lunardi's 2-seed projection was overly-generous anyway.  At this point I think the Buckeyes would have to win out (including winning the BTT at MSG in NYC) or awfully close to it (maybe lose at Purdue) to get a 2-seed.  As long as they don't suffer any more unexpected losses they should be somewhere around a 4/5 seed.  

If this is a sign of things to come, the Cinderella season could be in trouble.  The Buckeyes next host an Indiana team that can be either very good or very bad depending on which night you catch them.  Additionally, the Buckeyes still have road games that could go either way remaining against the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions.  The 9-0 start in the B1G could evaporate quickly down the stretch.  

For the Nittany Lions:
Unless this is a big sign of things to come this will not do anything for PSU's NCAA chances.  We project them to lose three more games:

• @MSU (1/31)
• @Pur (2/18)
• @UNL (2/25)

Additionally, they have home games that could go either way remaining against Maryland, Ohio State, and Michigan.  It is going to take more than one upset to get the Nittany Lions onto the Bubble.  

at this point I would assume it is a blip. I was only about to watch the first ten minutes, but PSU couldn't miss from behind the arc. Teams just aren't going to hit at the high of a percentage, just one of those things that happens.

[medinabuckeye1]

final bid being for the 3rd team or the 4th?

I think the Big gets 4 unless Nebraska/Michigan collapse and no one else goes on a run

I assume 4th with (in this scenario) Nebraska being safely in as #3.  The top two seeds in the BTT will be locks.  There is almost no plausible scenario in which the B1G's 2-seed isn't a lock.  
The three seed is *probably* also a lock.  The only scenario I could see in which they are not is if 12-6 is good for the 3-seed but that would require a pretty stupendous collapse for the Buckeyes (3-6 finish) and neither Michigan nor Nebraska finishing very strong.  
The 4/5 are where it gets hairy and I could definitely see the 4/5 game on Friday in the BTT being effectively a play-in game.  

[medinabuckeye1]

at this point I would assume it is a blip. I was only about to watch the first ten minutes, but PSU couldn't miss from behind the arc. Teams just aren't going to hit at the high of a percentage, just one of those things that happens.

I also would assume so until proven otherwise but I'll be keeping an eye on the two teams.  Ohio State's next two games are both at home against Indiana and Illinois.  They should win both.  If not, maybe the PSU loss was more than a blip.  
It is a bit harder to get a read out of Penn State's next two games.  Their next two are one of the easiest possible games in the B1G (vs Rutgers) and one of the toughest (@MSU) so they are extremely likely to go 1-1.  I think it is more of a question of degree.  If they struggle with Rutgers and get thoroughly dominated by MSU then it was a blip.  If they thoroughly dominate Rutgers and hang with MSU then maybe there is something there.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Somewhat OT, mini scheduling rant:

I was looking at the schedule for this weekend and my team is one of five that do not play at all this weekend (Fri-Sun).  The Buckeyes, Wolverines, Gophers, Wildcats, and Illini are all idle until at least Monday.  

Why would the conference give teams byes on the weekends?  It simply HAS to be easier to sell tickets to games played on weekends than it is to games played during the week.  

As my screenname implies, I live in Medina.  If you are not familiar with it, Medina is a Cleveland/Akron suburb about two hours from Ohio State's campus.  This makes it very difficult for me to attend weekday evening basketball games.  Here are all of Ohio State's weekend league games this season:

• @ Wisconsin, Sat Dec 2
• vs Michigan State, Sun Jan 7
• @ Rutgers, Sun, Jan 14
• vs Minnesota, Sat, Jan 20 (in NYC at MSG)
• vs Illinois, Sun, Feb 4
• vs Iowa, Sat, Feb 10
• @ Michigan, Sun, Feb 18

IMHO, it would make a lot more sense to give teams a week off instead of a weekend off both for fans and for the alleged student athletes.  As a fan who lives two hours from campus there are only three weekend home games available for me to choose from to attend games.  

[ELA]

Somewhat OT, mini scheduling rant:

I was looking at the schedule for this weekend and my team is one of five that do not play at all this weekend (Fri-Sun).  The Buckeyes, Wolverines, Gophers, Wildcats, and Illini are all idle until at least Monday.  

Why would the conference give teams byes on the weekends?  It simply HAS to be easier to sell tickets to games played on weekends than it is to games played during the week.  

As my screenname implies, I live in Medina.  If you are not familiar with it, Medina is a Cleveland/Akron suburb about two hours from Ohio State's campus.  This makes it very difficult for me to attend weekday evening basketball games.  Here are all of Ohio State's weekend league games this season:

• @ Wisconsin, Sat Dec 2
• vs Michigan State, Sun Jan 7
• @ Rutgers, Sun, Jan 14
• vs Minnesota, Sat, Jan 20 (in NYC at MSG)
• vs Illinois, Sun, Feb 4
• vs Iowa, Sat, Feb 10
• @ Michigan, Sun, Feb 18

IMHO, it would make a lot more sense to give teams a week off instead of a weekend off both for fans and for the alleged student athletes.  As a fan who lives two hours from campus there are only three weekend home games available for me to choose from to attend games.  

But you get better ratings on weeknights.  They don't care about ticket holders anymore.  They aren't a conference, they are a conglomerate of teams to provide content for a TV network.

[medinabuckeye1]

But you get better ratings on weeknights.  They don't care about ticket holders anymore.  They aren't a conference, they are a conglomerate of teams to provide content for a TV network.

Sadly this is probably true.  However, I think it is short-sighted because fans in the seats are your best fans and the ones most likely to be watching when they aren't in the seats.  Oh well.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

Sadly this is probably true.  However, I think it is short-sighted because fans in the seats are your best fans and the ones most likely to be watching when they aren't in the seats.  Oh well.  

The $10 seats almost got me in the door last night.
I normally won't go unless I'm invited by someone with season tix because the walk up tickets are awful.
The one time I did that, they sold me a $25 dollar ticket in the upper bowl, with an obstructed view behind a giant slab of concrete.
I'd rather just watch the game on TV, frankly. And I don't even feel bad about it, because they are already getting a cut of my cable bill.