~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[Brutus Buckeye]

Just heard about it for the first time, and googled up an article. 

Personally I would love it. But I'm also the only guy in Ohio that likes it when OSU plays the other Ohio FB teams. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I think their Sunday home game against MSU is their must win.  It's a home game, on a long 6 day rest, playing an MSU team that already struggles on the road, travelling in on 1 day rest.  If they are going to pull a big win, that is about as perfect a setup as you can ask for.  It also depends on where the fans are at by that point.  When MSU went in there a couple years ago it was an absolute hive.  Last year, not so much.

I agree.  I said in my post that I thought the Terrapins had to win one of the next two and your elaboration of the circumstances of the MSU game makes clear that it almost has to be that one.  Stranger things have happened but Maryland losing at home on a long rest to an MSU team on a short rest then turning around and winning in West Lafayette would be shocking.  
If Maryland loses their next two they will drop to 4-7.  At that point the best case scenario would be to get to the BTT at MSG in NYC at 11-7 and they would still have a significant amount of work to do to get to the NCAA.  If the Terrapins lose on Sunday they are in big trouble.  

[FearlessF]

Looking at the likely Bubble-teams:

• @RU, tonight
• @UW, 1/29
• @MN, 2/6
• @ILL, 2/18

To be a serious bubble team I think the Cornhuskers are going to have to win at least two of those and the easiest ones are probably the first (tonight against RU) and last (at Illinois on 2/18).  

if the Huskers can't beat Rutgers there's no reason to worry about being on the bubble.  The way the Badgers are playing that should also be a win if a team is worthy of the tournament.
I assume the Huskers will fold down the stretch, but I'd love to be surprised and see Miles keep his job and eventually elevate the program

[PortlandSpartan]

I think their Sunday home game against MSU is their must win.  It's a home game, on a long 6 day rest, playing an MSU team that already struggles on the road, travelling in on 1 day rest.  If they are going to pull a big win, that is about as perfect a setup as you can ask for.  It also depends on where the fans are at by that point.  When MSU went in there a couple years ago it was an absolute hive.  Last year, not so much.

Of course also depends heavily on whether the refs want MSU to win or not

[medinabuckeye1]

In talking about potential bubble teams I left out Indiana but is there a potential case to be made for the Hoosiers?  

The good news is that they are 5-3 in the league and 12-8 overall.  More good news is that their SoS is pretty good (#22 per BPI).  The bad news is that they had two just dreadful losses OOC.  They lost badly to both Indiana State and Fort Wayne.  Ouch!  

The Hoosiers are at Illinois tonight.  They HAVE to win that.  Then they have this stretch:

• vs Purdue Sunday
• at Ohio State Tuesday
• vs Michigan State Saturday

If they beat Illinois and win at least one of the three after that they'll be 7-5/14-10 with a quality win.  They wouldn't have much room for error but after that their schedule is manageable:

• at Rutgers
• vs Minnesota
• vs Illinois
• at Iowa
• at Nebraska
• vs Ohio State

It isn't impossible to imagine them going 5-1 through that to finish 12-6/19-11.  I don't think that would get them in, but it would at least get them into the bubble discussion.  

[medinabuckeye1]

if the Huskers can't beat Rutgers there's no reason to worry about being on the bubble.  

I think that is true for both games tonight.  Both Nebraska and Indiana are running out of time.  In theory either of them could lose tonight and make up for it later but in reality it seems pretty unlikely that either of them can afford a loss to RU/IL tonight.  

[mcwterps1]

Of course also depends heavily on whether the refs want MSU to win or not

Shouldn't be a problem this time around.
No need to call ticky tack fouls on Bruno when he won't likely be playing due to a sprained ankle.
Takes away the tough task of making it LOOK harmless.

[boilerbanger]

The 2nd half of this IU / ILL game is tough to watch ... Illinois can't run a half court offense and IU keeps turning it over.

[NickSmith4Three]

We won a game!  Although they tried really hard to give it away at the end there.

[medinabuckeye1]

In talking about potential bubble teams I left out Indiana but is there a potential case to be made for the Hoosiers?  

The good news is that they are 5-3 in the league and 12-8 overall.  More good news is that their SoS is pretty good (#22 per BPI).  The bad news is that they had two just dreadful losses OOC.  They lost badly to both Indiana State and Fort Wayne.  Ouch!  

The Hoosiers are at Illinois tonight.  They HAVE to win that.  Then they have this stretch:

• vs Purdue Sunday
• at Ohio State Tuesday
• vs Michigan State Saturday

If they beat Illinois and win at least one of the three after that they'll be 7-5/14-10 with a quality win.  They wouldn't have much room for error but after that their schedule is manageable:

• at Rutgers
• vs Minnesota
• vs Illinois
• at Iowa
• at Nebraska
• vs Ohio State

It isn't impossible to imagine them going 5-1 through that to finish 12-6/19-11.  I don't think that would get them in, but it would at least get them into the bubble discussion.  

Nevermind. 

[boilerbanger]

LOL medina ... good post

[medinabuckeye1]

Nebraska's win at Rutgers was an upset per our tiers.  Nebraska is now projected to finish alone in 4th instead of tied with Michigan for 4th/5th but it does not change the projected BTT seeds because Nebraska won that tie anyway.  

On the other end Rutgers moves from tied for 11th/12th with Minnesota to alone in 12th.  Again, it has no impact on BTT seed projections because Rutgers was projected to lose the tie with Minnesota.  

The question is, should Nebraska be promoted to tier-3 from tier-4?  That would make a difference in home games against tier-2 teams and road games against tier-5 teams.  There are four such games:

• vs Ohio State (Nebraska does not host tOSU this year)
• @ RU (Nebraska won)
• @ ILL (2/18)
• @ Iowa (Nebraska does not travel to Iowa this year)

Nebraska's other upset win was at Northwestern so that will still be an upset either way.  I'm going to go ahead and promote Nebraska.  

[medinabuckeye1]

New tiers (with +/- for upsets):

• PU, MSU -1
• tOSU +1*
• UNL +1, M +1, UMD, PSU -2, MN -2*
• UW +1, IU +1, NU
• Iowa +1, RU, ILL -1

Upsets so far have been:

Date	Won	@/v	Lost
4-Dec	UW	@	PSU
2-Jan	UNL	@	NU
6-Jan	IU	@	MN
11-Jan	IA	@	ILL
13-Jan	M	@	MSU
15-Jan	MN	@	PSU
20-Jan	tOSU	MSG*	MN
23-Jan	NU	@	MN

*Note that Ohio State's win over Minnesota is treated as an upset because it replaced a Minnesota home game, but should not be held against Minnesota or credited to Ohio State because the game was actually played on a neutral floor.  

Projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 17-1 Purdue
• 16-2 Michigan State
• 15-3 Ohio State
• 12-6 Nebraska
• 10-8 Michigan
• 9-9 Penn State
• 8-10 Maryland
• 7-11 Wisconsin (wins H2H2H tie with IU and NU, 2-1)
• 7-11 Indiana (second in H2H2H tie with UW and NU, 1-1)
• 7-11 Northwestern (last in H2H2H tie with UW and IU, 1-2)
• 6-12 Minnesota
• 5-13 Rutgers
• 4-14 Iowa
• 3-15 Illinois

The match-ups in the BTT at MSG in NYC would be:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Minnesota vs #14 Illinois, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Iowa, 5:30pm, BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Michigan vs RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Penn State vs MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Northwestern, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Indiana, noon, BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Purdue vs UW/IU, noon, BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs UMD/NU, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs PSU/MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Nebraska vs M/RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• PU/UW/IU vs UNL/M/RU/IA, 2pm, CBS
• MSU/UMD/NU vs tOSU/PSU/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• PU/UW/IU/UNL/M/RU/IA vs MSU/UMD/NU/tOSU/PSU/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

Will there be a fifth B1G team in the NCAA this year?  

It looks pretty shaky.  PU, MSU, and tOSU are all in barring epic collapses.  Michigan looks pretty good for a bid.  After that it gets questionable:

The next best teams in the B1G standings are UNL and IU with four losses each but the Hoosiers just gave Illinois their first B1G win of the year and also have a couple of really bad OOC losses so I think they need a miracle.  

Next are the five-loss teams:  Maryland, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Penn State.  Maryland is probably the best of the bunch but their next two games are against MSU and Purdue and if they don't win at least one I think they are in trouble.  

All the rest of the league's teams have at least seven league losses and I'm not sure that 11-7 would be good enough so even if they miraculously won out they would still probably have work to do in the BTT at MSG in NYC.  

That brings me back to Nebraska:
They are currrently 6-4/15-8 with eight league games and the BTT to go.  All four league losses were on the road and three of them are not really damaging (@PU, @MSU, @tOSU).  The only questionable league loss is @PSU but that isn't terrible.  Their OOC losses are also pretty good being @St.John's, @Creighton, a neutral site loss to UCF, and a home loss to Kansas.  

We project them to go 6-2 in their last eight B1G games.  Here are those games roughly organized by what I think they are most likely to win to what I think they are least likely to win:

• vs Rutgers 2/10
• vs Iowa 1/27
• vs Indiana 2/20
• vs Penn State 2/25
• at Illinois 2/18
• vs Maryland 2/13
• at Minnesota 2/6
• at Wisconsin 1/29

There isn't a game left where it looks like the Cornhuskers are hopeless.  I have Wisconsin has tougher than Minnesota because the Minnesota game is on nearly a week's rest while the Wisconsin game is on a short turn-around after the home game with Iowa.  

What do they need, and can they get there?  I'm thinking that 12-6 would get them to the bubble discussion but I'm not sure that it gets them in.  It would probably get them a 4-seed in the BTT and a likely game with Michigan on Friday.  That would probably be a must-win for the Cornhuskers mostly because they have a pretty weak B1G SoS and not a lot of quality wins.