~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[Brutus Buckeye]

[grillrat]

Well, yeah, I get your perspective, but from a Big Ten perspective, it was better that both Michigan and Purdue won.  I think I've come to the point where I can honestly say I would prefer that PU, MSU, OSU, Mich, and maybe one of Maryland or Nebraska win out the rest of their games against all the other lower teams.

Make the top 5 seem as strong as possible .  The league is down this year, there is nothing that can happen in the next 6 weeks to change that, but at least being able to keep the top 4 in the top 25 and have at least one or two decently strong teams goes a long way on the perception front.

That would be greeeeeeeaaaaat.

[ELA]

Well, yeah, I get your perspective, but from a Big Ten perspective, it was better that both Michigan and Purdue won.  I think I've come to the point where I can honestly say I would prefer that PU, MSU, OSU, Mich, and maybe one of Maryland or Nebraska win out the rest of their games against all the other lower teams.

Make the top 5 seem as strong as possible .  The league is down this year, there is nothing that can happen in the next 6 weeks to change that, but at least being able to keep the top 4 in the top 25 and have at least one or two decently strong teams goes a long way on the perception front.

That would be greeeeeeeaaaaat.

I'd prefer to win a Big Ten title, which means MSU needs to win out, and someone needs to knock off Purdue.  If that someone is OSU, it means someone else needs to beat the Bucks.

[grillrat]

As I said, I understand your perspective.


You're just wrong, that's all.  

[HailHailMSP]

This Michigan team looks a lot more like a Bo Ryan coached Wisconsin team than a Beilein team. They usually start games slow, wear down opponents with strong fundamental D, shoot strong in the 2nd half, don't turn the ball over, etc, and tend to win games with scoring in the 50's and 60's.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd prefer to win a Big Ten title, which means MSU needs to win out, and someone needs to knock off Purdue.  If that someone is OSU, it means someone else needs to beat the Bucks.

I'm curious, do you care at all if it is outright as opposed to a "co" and do you care at all how the tiebreakers work?  As for myself, I'd love a B1G Championship.  I'd prefer outright but I do not see that as a big deal and (other than the way in which it impacts BTT seeding*) I could care less how the tiebreakers work out.  
*Depending on how the field shakes out, there are some years when I would prefer to lose a 2-way or 3-way tie as far as BTT seeding goes.  

[ELA]

I'm curious, do you care at all if it is outright as opposed to a "co" and do you care at all how the tiebreakers work?  As for myself, I'd love a B1G Championship.  I'd prefer outright but I do not see that as a big deal and (other than the way in which it impacts BTT seeding*) I could care less how the tiebreakers work out.  
*Depending on how the field shakes out, there are some years when I would prefer to lose a 2-way or 3-way tie as far as BTT seeding goes.  

Yeah, I'd rather not share it, but it doesn't really matter.  As for seeding, I don't care at all.  The standings, particularly in the middle are so fluid that I don't think there's an inherent advantage in playing the 8 vs the 7 vs the 6.
Back in the old 11 team days when they flipped the game order Friday to Saturday there was a big edge.  2 or 3 meant you had to play at 7 or 9 on Friday night, then turn around and play at 1:30 on Saturday, while #1 meant you played noon on Friday and 4 on Saturday.  The difference in 28 hours vs. 16 hours between tips in huge.  I recall once MSU was the 6, upset Illinois in the 3-6 game that went to OT, and ended after midnight.  Their semifinal vs. Iowa on Saturday might have been one of the worst attempts at playing basketball I've ever seen.  Maybe 2006ish?

[medinabuckeye1]

Nebraska's win in Madison was unexpected and changes the projections.  New projected final standings and BTT seeds:

• 17-1 Purdue
• 16-2 Michigan State
• 14-4 Ohio State
• 13-5 Nebraska
• 10-8 Penn State (wins H2H tiebreaker over M based on H2H, no game in Ann Arbor)
• 10-8 Michigan
• 8-10 Maryland
• 7-11 Indiana (wins H2H tiebreaker over NU based on H2H, no game in Evanston)
• 7-11 Northwestern
• 6-12 Wisconsin (wins H2H tiebreaker over MN based on H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
• 6-12 Minnesota
• 5-13 Rutgers
• 4-14 Iowa
• 3-15 Illinois

New projected match-ups for the BTT at MSG in NYC:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Minnesota vs #14 Illinois, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Iowa, 5:30pm, BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Penn State vs RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Michigan vs MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Wisconsin, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Indiana vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Purdue vs IU/NU, noon, BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs UMD/UW, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs M/MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Nebraska vs PSU/RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• PU/IU/NU vs UNL/PSU/RU/IA, 2pm, CBS
• MSU/UMD/UW vs tOSU/M/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• PU/IU/NU/UNL/PSU/RU/IA vs MSU/UMD/UW/tOSU/M/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:  I think that Nebraska's win last night was HUGE for them.  They travel to Minnesota a week from today then finish up with four home games (RU, UMD, IU, PSU) and a road trip to struggling (that is being charitable) Illinois.  We project them to lose in Minneapolis then win the last five to finish 13-5.  That would at least get them onto the Bubble heading to NYC.  After Maryland's home loss to the Spartans I now think that Nebraska is probably the B1G's best chance at a fifth team in the NCAA Tournament.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Obviously having sole possession of the regular season championship is preferred to co-champion. But any share of the championship is a share of the championship and worth celebrating.

[FearlessF]

FWIW:  I think that Nebraska's win last night was HUGE for them.  They travel to Minnesota a week from today then finish up with four home games (RU, UMD, IU, PSU) and a road trip to struggling (that is being charitable) Illinois.  We project them to lose in Minneapolis then win the last five to finish 13-5.  That would at least get them onto the Bubble heading to NYC.  After Maryland's home loss to the Spartans I now think that Nebraska is probably the B1G's best chance at a fifth team in the NCAA Tournament.  

if the full week of rest helps, they could beat the Gophers on the road and then have some real momentum coming home to the vault
could finish 4th in the conference, but they really struggle with fundamentals and bone head plays for long stretches.
making the tourney would obviously save Miles job, a tourney victory would be crazy
I guess crazy things happen in basketball

[medinabuckeye1]

if the full week of rest helps, they could beat the Gophers on the road and then have some real momentum coming home to the vault
could finish 4th in the conference, but they really struggle with fundamentals and bone head plays for long stretches.
making the tourney would obviously save Miles job, a tourney victory would be crazy
I guess crazy things happen in basketball

What would it take to get Nebraska into the dance?
Here are their remaining games and the projections (per the tiers):

• L @ MN, 2/6
• W vs RU, 2/10
• W vs UMD, 2/13
• W @ IL, 2/18
• W vs IU, 2/20
• W vs PSU, 2/25

That would get them to 13-5/22-9.  

As we have discussed they have a potentially problematic lack of quality wins.  Their best win (by far) was by 20 at home over Michigan.  The flip side of that is that their losses aren't too bad:

• 11/16:  @ St. John's by 23:  This could be problematic as the Red Storm are currently 0-10 in the BigE but the committee might be willing to overlook that somewhat as this game was way back in November.  
• 11/23:  vs UCF by 9:  UCF isn't great and this was a neutral site game but this isn't a terrible loss and it was way back in November.  
• 12/3:  @ MSU by 29:  The margin is glaring, but the opponent is obviously very good.  
• 12/9:  vs Creighton by 10:  Creighton is 7-3 in the BigE and a likely tournament team.  
• 12/16:  vs Kansas by 1:  This is probably the game the Cornhuskers most wish they could have back.  Still, it is about as much of a "good loss" as you can imagine.  
• 1/6:  @ Purdue by 12:  Another loss to a high-end opponent.  
• 1/12:  @ Penn State by 2 in OT:  This isn't great but it was on the road and in OT.  
• 1/22:  @ Ohio State by 5:  Another road loss to a quality opponent.  

The Cornhuskers' worst two losses were very early in the season so that might help.  

Of the last six games, a road loss to Minnesota or a home loss to Maryland wouldn't be too bad.  As long as they only lose one of those and win the rest I think they are at least on the bubble at 13-5/22-9.  If they could win out, I think they would be a lock.  First off, that would get them a very good 14-4/23-8 record.  Secondly, including the wins over RU, IA, and UW it would mean finishing on a nine game winning streak so that when the committee looked at records Nebraska would be 9-1 in their last 10.  

I think they *MIGHT* get in at 13-5 with a loss in their BTT opener but it could depend on the opponent they draw.  They would likely be the 4-seed* so their opening game would be Friday against either #5 or the 12/13 winner.  There is a good chance that would be a ranked and tournament-bound Michigan team.  In that case, I think Nebraska might be able to absorb a quick exit from the BTT.  Where they maybe couldn't is if either the Nittany Lions get the 5-seed or if the 12/13 winner knocks off #5 on Thursday.  I'm not sure that a 13-5/22-9 Nebraska team could absorb a bad loss.  

The 4-seed is VERY likely for a hypothetical 13-5 Nebraska.  It projects at fourth place one game behind the Buckeyes and three games ahead of the Wolverines and Nittany Lions.  If the Buckeyes dropped an extra game it wouldn't make any difference because Nebraska would lose that tie.  Additionally, if the Wolverines won three more games that wouldn't make any difference either because Nebraska would win that tie.  

[FearlessF]

What would it take to get Nebraska into the dance?

That would get them to 13-5/22-9.  This could be enough

• 12/16:  vs Kansas by 1:  This is probably the game the Cornhuskers most wish they could have back.  Still, it is about as much of a "good loss" as you can imagine.  yes and yes, friggin Jayhawks!

Of the last six games, a road loss to Minnesota or a home loss to Maryland wouldn't be too bad.  As long as they only lose one of those and win the rest I think they are at least on the bubble at 13-5/22-9.  If they could win out, I think they would be a lock.  First off, that would get them a very good 14-4/23-8 record.  Secondly, including the wins over RU, IA, and UW it would mean finishing on a nine game winning streak so that when the committee looked at records Nebraska would be 9-1 in their last 10.  Finishing strong helps a lot.



The 4-seed is VERY likely for a hypothetical 13-5 Nebraska.  If only 4 Big Ten teams get in, the Huskers could be the 4th

but, obviously there are 6 games ahead of this cart

[ELA]

Nebraska may finish 4th, as a product of their schedule, but Michigan would have to fall off quite a bit for Nebraska to leap them in terms of tourney profile.