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Topic: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

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Cincydawg

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Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« on: January 30, 2020, 09:18:07 AM »
If a conference does poorly in the CFP does it impact future close decisions?  Should it?

Is the SEC champ a virtual lock as a result of this?  Imagine one is 11-2 with an OOC loss versus a 12-1 alternative?

Does this hurt the B12 and Pac teams in a close decision?

Kris60

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2020, 10:30:04 AM »
It shouldn’t and when I rank teams I really discipline myself that I am just ranking these teams on this year.  Past doesn’t matter.  That being said, the people on the committee are human and humans have emotions and memories and hang ups.  So, yeah the past and reputation  could factor in.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2020, 11:51:24 AM »
First, I want to second everything that @Kris60 said.  I agree entirely except that I am a little more open to it being a valid criteria than he is.  
Is the SEC champ a virtual lock as a result of this?  
I think this comment is too narrowly focused on the SEC Champion.  No, I don't think that the SEC Champion is a virtual lock.  There is, of course, a possibility that a relatively weak SEC-E Champion with multiple losses could upset a relatively strong SEC-W Champion in the SECCG.  In that case I do NOT think that the SEC Champion would be a "virtual lock".  

Instead, I think the issue is that there is a near certainty that at least one SEC team will get in regardless of whether that team is the SEC Champion or not.  
Does this hurt the B12 and Pac teams in a close decision?
I think it does, but only in a close call effectively as a tie-breaker.  I do NOT think that a 1-loss non-Champion Ohio State would get in ahead of an undefeated or one-loss B12 or P12 Champion but I absolutely think that a 1-loss B1G Champion Ohio State would get in ahead of a 1-loss B12 or P12 Champion.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2020, 11:53:35 AM »
I suspect we all agree.  Maybe.

Cincydawg

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2020, 12:01:15 PM »
If Conference A gets whacked in the playoff five years in a row, should that be a factor in year six?

utee94

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2020, 12:53:48 PM »
If Conference A gets whacked in the playoff five years in a row, should that be a factor in year six?
As discussed, in terms of a tie-breaker with everything else being equal, then it's likely to be used.

Should it be?  Not sure.  Some people like BOTD as a factor.  Others don't.


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2020, 01:04:06 PM »
It shouldn't buut it will, and it won't necessarily be deliberate.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2020, 01:05:40 PM »
It shouldn't buut it will, and it won't necessarily be deliberate.
Makes sense to me.

FearlessF

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2020, 02:07:29 PM »
If Conference A gets whacked in the playoff five years in a row, should that be a factor in year six?
the answer to the original question is, "Yes"

the answer to this question is, NO it shouldn't be, but it will be a factor in year 6

I don't think either are big factors, but when everything else is equal and the committee is looking for a tiebreaker, it is a slight factor.
A "slighter" factor than politics and TV ratings
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bayareabadger

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2020, 05:02:40 PM »
If Conference A gets whacked in the playoff five years in a row, should that be a factor in year six?
Shouldn’t. It’ll be mentioned a lot as an idea, but ultimately I think in-season factors will mostly weigh more heavily. 

Some of it owes to the sort of musical chairs nature of the last 1-2 spots. Like if OSU went for Oklahoma in 2018 it would likely have a 50-burger on the Ole playoff resume. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2020, 06:07:35 PM »
If Conference A gets whacked in the playoff five years in a row, should that be a factor in year six?
No.
.
The only thing that should happen, and it would take a lot more than simply their champion losing every year in the playoff, is if a conference is deemed too weak to even be included as a P5 conference.  
Otherwise, absolutely not.  
.
Look at Nebraska from 87-93.  If someone magically said the Big 8 champ gets left out if it's Nebraska again, their 3 NCs in 94, 95, and 97 don't happen.  But as I said, if it was deemed that the Big 8 at that time was too weak, and a new deal was being put into place, then you'd exclude that whole conference, not just the one team.  The Big 8 was never that weak.  You could make the argument that the Southwest Conference was, during its last 5-6 years.  It had NOTHING but A&M at that time.
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2020, 07:08:07 PM »
If a conference does poorly in the CFP does it impact future close decisions?  Should it?




It shouldn't, but recent conference reputation does play into playoff qualifications, and sometime for good reason. Oklahoma is a good reason why.

Let's say Oklahoma is 13-0 next season. Do they deserve a playoff bid. Probably. But is it fine for fans, media, and the committee member to voice a reluctance given just how awful the Sooners and their Mountain West defense play in CFP? Absolutley - Oklahoma plays like crap year after year.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2020, 09:04:49 PM »
Well that's a key point - the idea isn't to exclude them because of the interlocking O-U, but because of their lack of quality defense.  If a P5 conference champions, whoever it is, happens to play an especially weak schedule AND has a sieve for a defense, THAT would warrant some consideration for exclusion.  
.
But no, not x-consecutive losses in the playoff.


“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MrNubbz

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2020, 06:58:31 AM »
Absolutley - Oklahoma plays like crap year after year.
Sure they've had some clinkers but they're hardly a crap program.That Big 12 CCG was exciting.The Sooners pull in as much NFL talent as the next program most years.Took Clemson a while to poke thru and Gawja could be on deck
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