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Topic: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
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TyphonInc · « **Reply #14 on:** February 01, 2020, 10:35:37 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 30, 2020, 11:51:24 AM

First, I want to second everything that @Kris60 said. I agree entirely except that I am a little more open to it being a valid criteria than he is. I think this comment is too narrowly focused on the SEC Champion. No, I don't think that the SEC Champion is a virtual lock. There is, of course, a possibility that a relatively weak SEC-E Champion with multiple losses could upset a relatively strong SEC-W Champion in the SECCG. In that case I do NOT think that the SEC Champion would be a "virtual lock".

Instead, I think the issue is that there is a near certainty that at least one SEC team will get in regardless of whether that team is the SEC Champion or not. I think it does, but only in a close call effectively as a tie-breaker. I do NOT think that a 1-loss non-Champion Ohio State would get in ahead of an undefeated or one-loss B12 or P12 Champion but I absolutely think that a 1-loss B1G Champion Ohio State would get in ahead of a 1-loss B12 or P12 Champion.

So, we all agree the SEC team with the best SEC resume is a virtual lock to make the CFP.

And Ohio State isn't in the SEC. If Alabama didn't lose to Auburn (1 loss non-champ) would they have bumped Oklahoma (1 loss champ) from the playoff?

bayareabadger · « **Reply #15 on:** February 01, 2020, 10:47:51 AM »

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on January 31, 2020, 07:08:07 PM

It shouldn't, but recent conference reputation does play into playoff qualifications, and sometime for good reason. Oklahoma is a good reason why.

Let's say Oklahoma is 13-0 next season. Do they deserve a playoff bid. Probably. But is it fine for fans, media, and the committee member to voice a reluctance given just how awful the Sooners and their Mountain West defense play in CFP? Absolutley - Oklahoma plays like crap year after year.

This happened twice.

There's a case it should've happend once (replace them with OSU in 2018), then OSU likely plays like crap in consecutive years. This year, Oklahoma wasn't a good option, but was also kind of the best option based on how things go.

And the beauty is, no matter who goes, someone will always be there to voice reluctance as we live in a world not short on voices.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #16 on:** February 01, 2020, 11:13:47 AM »

Quote from: TyphonInc on February 01, 2020, 10:35:37 AM

So, we all agree the SEC team with the best SEC resume is a virtual lock to make the CFP.

And Ohio State isn't in the SEC. If Alabama didn't lose to Auburn (1 loss non-champ) would they have bumped Oklahoma (1 loss champ) from the playoff?

While nearly everyone here sees "conference champ" and sees it as a pass into the CFP, someone who actually takes its team on its merits would actually have this argument between 1-loss non-champ Alabama vs 1-loss XII champ OU.
An argument should in no way involve Bama's 'shinier' recent helmetness, but should very much include the Tide's superior defense, turnovers forced, and perhaps conference strength.
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People simply must understand that sometimes the helmet-ier team also wins the blind taste test as well, and the latter has nothing to do with the former.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #17 on:** February 01, 2020, 07:03:19 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 01, 2020, 11:13:47 AM

While nearly everyone here sees "conference champ" and sees it as a pass into the CFP, someone who actually takes its team on its merits would actually have this argument between 1-loss non-champ Alabama vs 1-loss XII champ OU.
An argument should in no way involve Bama's 'shinier' recent helmetness, but should very much include the Tide's superior defense, turnovers forced, and perhaps conference strength.
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People simply must understand that sometimes the helmet-ier team also wins the blind taste test as well, and the latter has nothing to do with the former.

A small not that this is not a great metric of things. Maybe a good looking back metric to explain why a resume looks the way it does, but not a terribly useful one if we're looking for predictors of playoff competence.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #18 on:** February 02, 2020, 04:18:52 AM »

Yeah, I view TOs are largely random, not predictive, except in reverse.

FearlessF · « **Reply #19 on:** February 02, 2020, 10:02:27 AM »

many are unforced errors

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #20 on:** February 02, 2020, 12:50:56 PM »

I included TO margin, because between the 2 teams in question, there's a wide gap.
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From season to season, TO differential does vary greatly. But within a season, a defense (ie - a scheme and its particular players) tends to either create turnovers or not. I haven't data mined this, but statistical logic can hold true (regression to the mean, etc) AND my point can both be true.
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And while there are certainly unforced turnovers, it would be very difficult to accurately identify them. How many of those perceived unforced turnovers were due to scheme? How many were due to pressure and not actual physical touch? How many were due to in-game adjustments?

CWSooner · « **Reply #21 on:** February 02, 2020, 12:55:06 PM »

If Oklahoma had beaten Georgia in the 2017 (season) Rose Bowl, instead of losing in double-OT, about 95% of this "Oklahoma has a crap defense" and "Oklahoma plays in a crap conference" talk would disappear.

And Oklahoma should have beaten Georgia in that game. It took some unforced OU errors, Georgia refusing to fold when seemingly beaten and instead launching a great comeback, some fortune smiling on Georgia, and Lincoln Riley puckering up late in regulation and then again in the 1st OT for that game to end up the way it did.

Then the narrative about OU is significantly different, and we don't see any speculation about whether a 13-0 Sooner team should be omitted from the CFP.

Much difference on the basis of one different data point.

And nobody seems to have noticed Mike Stoops has left the building and that the Sooners made a huge improvement in defense from the 2018 season to 2019.

To the question in the OP, yes, the Committee will be influenced by past-year results. It shouldn't be, and the members will try not to be, but they are human beings, not computers.

FearlessF · « **Reply #22 on:** February 02, 2020, 12:57:38 PM »

TO margin for a season is a fine stat, but ya never know how a single future game is going to play out with TOs

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #23 on:** February 02, 2020, 01:51:30 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on February 02, 2020, 12:57:38 PM

TO margin for a season is a fine stat, but ya never know how a single future game is going to play out with TOs

Who is claiming to KNOW?
We have the facts and we make predictions based on likelihoods and probabilities. A team creating 3 turnovers per game over 12 games will tend to create more turnovers than one averaging 1 caused per game over a season when they play. No, it won't always go that way, but it will more often than not. Even understanding the 3-turnovers defense will regress and the 1-turnover defense is likely to improve.
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Think of LSU's Tyrann Mathieu....several of his big plays on defense were simply a fumble bouncing right into his hands. But he was the one who was there and he was the one making the play. If you replayed the season, he'd not likely cause/recover as many, but he'd still likely cause/recover more than the average. Call it scheme or luck or whatever you want, a defense that tends to cause turnovers is likely to cause more (in one game) than a defense that tends not to cause turnovers.
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Some of the time, the 1-turnover defense will cause more in that one game sample, but more often not. And that's all we can state with any certainty. And that's all I've stated.
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Each defense is different from year to year. Each player does his job to differing degrees and each DC varies his system, etc. That's why there's such variety year to year. But a one-year sample is in of itself a data set. We can glean from it what's most likely to happen in a one-game scenario.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #24 on:** February 02, 2020, 01:58:02 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on February 02, 2020, 12:55:06 PM

If Oklahoma had beaten Georgia in the 2017 (season) Rose Bowl, instead of losing in double-OT, about 95% of this "Oklahoma has a crap defense" and "Oklahoma plays in a crap conference" talk would disappear.

And nobody seems to have noticed Mike Stoops has left the building and that the Sooners made a huge improvement in defense from the 2018 season to 2019.

To the question in the OP, yes, the Committee will be influenced by past-year results. It shouldn't be, and the members will try not to be, but they are human beings, not computers.

a - even if OU won, they still gave up 45 points in regulation. Yes, that's still crap defense.
b - OU's defense has improved a lot...and STILL isn't among the defenses of the NC-level teams....which speaks to how bad it was before.
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Big comebacks are less impressive and more predictable vs a crap defense.
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Anyway, in 2019, LSU's defense was much worse than in previous championship incarnations, but was still appreciably better than OU's. LSU's worsening AND OU's improvement and still there is a void between them. That's the point.

FearlessF · « **Reply #25 on:** February 02, 2020, 02:54:39 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 02, 2020, 01:51:30 PM

But a one-year sample is in of itself a data set. We can glean from it what's most likely to happen in a one-game scenario.

I agree, but I also point out that turnovers for or against are more random than other stats in a one-year sample, such as rushing avg or QB rating or sack avg

Cincydawg · « **Reply #26 on:** February 02, 2020, 03:11:45 PM »

A team can excel in a year in part due to key and random TOs in key games and be 12-1 and possibly not be a great team, just lucky, and then they don't get TOs in a playoff and get smoked.

FearlessF · « **Reply #27 on:** February 02, 2020, 03:28:53 PM »

yea, like the Sooners

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Topic: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

TyphonInc

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

bayareabadger

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

bayareabadger

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

Cincydawg

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

FearlessF

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

CWSooner

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

FearlessF

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

FearlessF

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

Cincydawg

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

FearlessF

Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?