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Topic: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?
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CWSooner · « **Reply #14 on:** January 05, 2021, 09:11:24 PM »

I voted Michigan too. Along with fellow Big 12-er Kris.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #15 on:** January 06, 2021, 12:35:50 AM »

Michigan - everyone has a down year once in a while, so Michigan will slide by Ohio St, Penn St, and Indiana someday soon, although maybe, or maybe not, next season. Iowa, pesky Northwestern, and Wisconsin stand in Minnesota's path.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #16 on:** January 06, 2021, 01:20:47 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 05, 2021, 12:40:45 PM

I understand that but I'm saying that unlike the Wolverines and Hoosiers, the Gophers don't compete with Ohio State in their division. They can lose to Ohio State and still control their own destiny to the B1GCG.

OK thought I 1st read NCG - ya I'd go Goophs then

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #17 on:** January 06, 2021, 11:21:33 AM »

I think I need to amend my own answer:

I went with Minnesota primarily because tOSU is just a machine right now and I think this year's struggles for PSU were a blip. For any B1G-E team to get there they would have to beat out those two. I just don't see that as being very likely. Final standings for the seven years that the B1G-E has existed:
2020:

5-0 tOSU
6-1 IU: lost to tOSU

2019:

9-0 tOSU
7-2 PSU: lost to tOSU and MN

2018:

8-1 tOSU: lost to PU
8-1 M: lost to tOSU
6-3 PSU: lost to tOSU, MSU, and M

2017:

8-1 tOSU: lost to Iowa
7-2 MSU: lost to tOSU and NU
7-2 PSU: lost to tOSU and MSU

2016:

8-1 PSU: lost to M
8-1 tOSU: lost to PSU

2015:

7-1 MSU: lost to UNL
7-1 tOSU: lost to MSU

2014:

8-0 tOSU
7-1 MSU: lost to tOSU

I also think that Michigan is just a mess right now and in the East that only leaves IU, UMD, and RU. I just don't think any of them are going to get past tOSU/PSU anytime soon.

However, whether or not Michigan is a mess RIGHT NOW, they are still a school with great brand recognition, a humongous stadium, and the resources to spend whatever it takes. If we look beyond the near-term I think the answer here has to be Michigan.

Thus, if it happens within the next 3-5 years I would say my order is:

Minnesota
Purdue
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana
Maryland
Rutgers

If it does NOT happen within the next 3-5 years then my order is:

Michigan
Minnesota
Maryland
Purdue
Illinois
Indiana
Rutgers

Going beyond 3-5 years I moved Michigan and Maryland way up because I think that in the long-term they have a better chance than the teams I moved them past. I still left Minnesota ahead of Maryland but if they switched divisions I'd move Maryland ahead of Minnesota as well.

FearlessF · « **Reply #18 on:** January 06, 2021, 11:36:32 AM »

so, yer saying HArbaugh won't be around longer than 3-5 years

HawkFrenzy · « **Reply #19 on:** January 06, 2021, 11:48:03 AM »

Went MN and my 2nd would be Purdue. I am not confident anyone in the East will get by tOSU anytime soon.

FearlessF · « **Reply #20 on:** January 06, 2021, 12:05:20 PM »

but, Indiana DID get by tOSU this season

Buckeyes needed help from the Commish

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #21 on:** January 06, 2021, 12:07:14 PM »

No they didn't get past OSU this year. Indiana needed help from Covid.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #22 on:** January 06, 2021, 12:26:46 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on January 06, 2021, 11:36:32 AM

so, yer saying HArbaugh won't be around longer than 3-5 years

If they don't make a B1GCG appearance, probably not*. In 3-5 years Harbaugh will either have them competing at a high level or be gone. Either way, long-term they are a threat to at least make the B1GCG.

*I could see Harbaugh keeping his job for another five years without a B1GCG appearance but only if he is really close and tOSU stays at their current level such that losing to them is excusable.

HawkFrenzy · « **Reply #23 on:** January 06, 2021, 12:51:13 PM »

Harbaugh is getting a pass because he is a Michigan guy. His seat is getting warmer each day and if it wasn't for a pandemic, he probably would not have been competitive in The Game this year either. I don't see him lasting 3-5 more beatdowns from tOSU, he will have to pull out a win soon or at least be competitive.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #24 on:** January 06, 2021, 01:15:02 PM »

Quote from: HawkFrenzy on January 06, 2021, 12:51:13 PM

Harbaugh is getting a pass because he is a Michigan guy. His seat is getting warmer each day and if it wasn't for a pandemic, he probably would not have been competitive in The Game this year either. I don't see him lasting 3-5 more beatdowns from tOSU, he will have to pull out a win soon or at least be competitive.

I think that largely depends on whether 2020 was a blip or Harbaugh's new norm. I realize that Michigan fans are NEVER going to be content with losing to Ohio State but the vast majority of Harbaugh's pre-2020 losses were to very good teams. A smart AD will understand that while being behind your main rival sucks, it is vastly better to be slightly behind your main rival than to be WAY behind your main rival. Here are all of the teams that have defeated Michigan in Harbaugh's tenure with their final record and final AP ranking:

2015 Utah, 10-3, #17
2015 MSU, 12-2, #6
2015 tOSU, 12-1, #4
2016 Iowa, 8-5, nr (but had votes)
2016 tOSU, 11-2, #6
2016 FSU, 10-3, #8
2017 MSU, 10-3, #15
2017 PSU, 11-2, #8
2017 UW, 13-1, #7
2017 tOSU, 12-2, #5
2017 USCe, 9-4, nr (but had votes)
2018 ND, 12-1, #5
2018 tOSU, 13-1, #3
2018 UF, 10-3, #7
2019 UW, 10-4, #11
2019 PSU, 11-2, #9
2019 tOSU, 13-1, #3
2019 Bama, 11-2, #8

Prior to 2019 Harbaugh only had two losses to teams that finished unranked and both of them were close to ranked (received votes). 13 of his 18 losses from 2015-2019 were to teams that finished in the top-10. Losing always sucks but the vast majority of teams (and coaches) aren't going to win very often against most of the teams on that list. In the seven years before Harbaugh got to Michigan they had three sub .500 seasons, one 8-5 season, and one season better than 8-5. In Harbaugh's first five years they had one 8-5 season and four better than that.

FearlessF · « **Reply #25 on:** January 06, 2021, 01:23:50 PM »

4 and 5 loss seasons going forward with one of those a beatdown from the Bucks are going to cost his job

he really needs 2 and 3 loss seasons with a competitive game in "the game"

I don't see improvement coming

HawkFrenzy · « **Reply #26 on:** January 06, 2021, 02:30:00 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 06, 2021, 01:15:02 PM

2015 Utah, 10-3, #17 24-17
2015 MSU, 12-2, #6 27-23
2015 tOSU, 12-1, #4 42-13
2016 Iowa, 8-5, nr (but had votes) 14-13
2016 tOSU, 11-2, #6 30-27 (2OT)
2016 FSU, 10-3, #8 33-32
2017 MSU, 10-3, #15 14-10
2017 PSU, 11-2, #8 42-13
2017 UW, 13-1, #7 24-10
2017 tOSU, 12-2, #5 31-20
2017 USCe, 9-4, nr (but had votes) 26-19
2018 ND, 12-1, #5 24-10
2018 tOSU, 13-1, #3 62-39
2018 UF, 10-3, #7 41-15
2019 UW, 10-4, #11 35-14
2019 PSU, 11-2, #9 28-21
2019 tOSU, 13-1, #3 56-27
2019 Bama, 11-2, #8 35-16

I do agree that he has lost to some tough competition but it appears to me that the games are becoming less competitive. You probably know Michigan fan better than I do but I can't imagine they are content with this. Add the 2-4 weird 2020 (0-3 at home) I can't imagine that he is comfortable in his office now. I could be wrong but Michigan seems to expect more on a yearly basis.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #27 on:** January 06, 2021, 04:03:13 PM »

Quote from: HawkFrenzy on January 06, 2021, 02:30:00 PM

I do agree that he has lost to some tough competition but it appears to me that the games are becoming less competitive. You probably know Michigan fan better than I do but I can't imagine they are content with this. Add the 2-4 weird 2020 (0-3 at home) I can't imagine that he is comfortable in his office now. I could be wrong but Michigan seems to expect more on a yearly basis.

Well, of those 18, here are the losses that were by more than 14 points:

2015 tOSU by 29: The Buckeyes finished 12-1 and #4.
2017 PSU by 29: The Lions finished 11-2 and #8.
2018 tOSU by 23: The Buckeyes finished 13-1 and #3.
2018 UF by 26: The Gators finished 10-3 and #7.
2019 UW by 21: The Badgers finished 10-4 and #11.
2019 tOSU by 29: The Buckeyes finished 13-1 and #3.
2019 Bama by 19: The Tide finished 11-2 and #8.

There are some blowouts and they do seem to be increasing in frequency (one in 2015, none in 2016, one in 2017, two in 2018, three in 2019) but these are to teams that finished:

#3 twice (2018 and 2019 Buckeyes)
#4 (2015 Buckeyes)
#7 (2018 Gators)
#8 twice (2017 PSU and 2019 Tide)
#11 (2019 Badgers)

It sucks, but really good teams do that to almost everybody.

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Topic: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

CWSooner

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

Hawkinole

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

MrNubbz

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

medinabuckeye1

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

FearlessF

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HawkFrenzy

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FearlessF

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Brutus Buckeye

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medinabuckeye1

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HawkFrenzy

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medinabuckeye1

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

FearlessF

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

HawkFrenzy

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?

medinabuckeye1

Re: Which team will be next to make their first B1GCG appearance?