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Topic: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
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medinabuckeye1 · « **on:** January 23, 2020, 06:00:03 PM »

There hasn't been a first-time AP National Champion since 1996. Here are all the first time AP National Champions:

1936 Minnesota, also in 40, 41, and 60.
1937 Pittsburgh, also in 76.
1938 TCU
1939 aTm
1942 Ohio state, also in 54, 68, 02, and 14.
1943 Notre Dame, also in 46, 47, 49, 66, 73, 77, and 88.
1944 Army, also in 45.
1948 Michigan, also in 97.
1950 Oklahoma, also in 55, 56, 74, 75, 85, and 00.
1951 Tennessee, also in 98.
1952 Michigan State
1953 Maryland
1957 Auburn, also in 10.
1958 Louisiana State, also in 07 and 19.
1959 Syracuse
1961 Alabama, also in 64, 65, 78, 79, 92, 09, 11, 12, 15, and 17
1962 USC, also in 67, 72, 03, and 04.
1963 Texas, also in 69 and 05.
1970 Nebraska, also in 71, 94, and 95.
1980 Georgia
1981 Clemson, also in 16 and 18.
1982 Penn State, also in 86.
1983 Miami, FL, also in 87, 89, 91, and 01.
1984 BYU
1990 Colorado
1993 Florida State, also in 99 and 13.
1996 Florida, also in 06 and 08.

There was a five year run of new Champions from 1980-1984 then three new Champions in 1990, 1993, and 1996 and we haven't had a new Champion in the 23 seasons since.

Since then there have been some that had big gaps since their most recent but no new AP Champions:

1997 was Michigan's second with a gap of 49 years.
1998 was Tennessee's second with a gap of 47 years.
1999 was Florida State's second with a gap of 6 years.
2000 was Oklahoma's seventh with a gap of 15 years.
2001 was Miami's fifth with a gap of 10 years.
2002 was Ohio State's fourth with a gap of 34 years.
2003 was USC's fourth with a gap of 31 years.
2004 was USC's fifth with no gap.
2005 was Texas' third with a gap of 36 years.
2006 was Florida's second with a gap of 10 years.
2007 was LSU's second with a gap of 49 years.
2008 was Florida's third with a gap of 1 year.
2009 was Alabama's seventh with a gap of 17 years.
2010 was Auburn's second with a gap of 53 years.
2011 was Alabama's eighth with a gap of 1 year.
2012 was Alabama's ninth with no gap.
2013 was Florida State's third with a gap of 14 years.
2014 was Ohio State's fifth with a gap of 12 years.
2015 was Alabama's tenth with a gap of three years.
2016 was Clemson's second with a gap of 35 years.
2017 was Alabama's eleventh with a gap of one year.
2018 was Clemson's third with a gap of one year.
2019 was LSU's third with a gap of 12 years.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** January 23, 2020, 06:20:12 PM »

Please post/discuss your votes.

I voted UCLA. My thoughts on the nominees:

Baylor: There is a LOT of talent in Texas but I just don't think Baylor will ever be able to get enough of it to win a title. They were great this year except when they played an actual top-10 team, then what happened?
Oregon/Washington: Oregon has Phil Knight's money and Washington has better overall history but I just don't think there is enough talent in the Pacific Northwest for either of them to actually win a title.
Iowa: I think their ceiling is about what we saw a few years ago when they sailed into the B1GCG undefeated then lost to MSU. They might win a B1GCG in the right situation but I can't see them winning back-to-back games against top-4 opponents.
Wisconsin: Same as Iowa. The Badgers play a tough brand of football and that is great but it seems to me that there is not likely to be a year in which somebody else with more talent does the same thing.
Ole Miss: I just can't see them stealing enough talent from under the noses of Bama/Auburn/LSU/UGA to get there.
VaTech: Maybe but I doubt it.
WVU: I just can't see them accumulating enough talent to win back-to-back games against top-4 opponents.
UCLA: There is a LOT of talent in California and not much competition for it relative to other talent-rich areas. I could see the Bruins getting it done.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #2 on:** January 23, 2020, 06:21:44 PM »

Probably Ole Miss.

They are able to acquire a lot of NFL talent, and they are willing to skirt the rules.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #3 on:** January 23, 2020, 06:37:37 PM »

I've got to go with the field. Some nondescript program hangs on to a great HC one year longer than normal and breaks through. Someone like Missouri or NC State or one of the AZ teams. Too many 'maybes' possible to pick just one of the options.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #4 on:** January 23, 2020, 06:40:10 PM »

I have a tough time picturing it being anyone outside of the SE.

I get the argument for Cali, but things are trending in the opposite direction on the Left coast. Youth participation is way down because of concussions, the lifestyle is so healthy that there really aren't a whole lot of 6-4, 355 lb dudes walking around to load up the trenches with. Masculinity in general is frowned upon due to their political leanings, and they tend to instead have a laid back, chill demeanor. I know that a lot of Pac 12 schools load up the trenches with Samoan players, but there are only so many of them to go around.

In the North (midwest/NE) they don't have the same "win at all costs" mentality that you find in the SE. The closest is probably Ohio State, and even they have already released two legendary coaches this Millennium for reasons that no one in the SE would even pretend to give a crap about (unless of course it was happening to their rival instead of their team). Now I could maybe see an outside chance of ND, PSU or the Wolverines pulling it off, but they are obviously ineligible for this particular exercise. I just don't see it from Iowa, Wisconsin, etc, but you never know. I've been wrong before, and will be again.

utee94 · « **Reply #5 on:** January 23, 2020, 06:40:43 PM »

I'm going with Wisconsin. Because, well, they deserve it!

MaximumSam · « **Reply #6 on:** January 23, 2020, 07:12:38 PM »

I went with Baylor. They want to be good, and have had really good teams lately. They need a coach who will stay and doesn't ignore rape.

CWSooner · « **Reply #7 on:** January 23, 2020, 07:37:00 PM »

I took the field.

Baylor: There is a lot of talent in Texas, most of it not headed to Waco. The Bears can catch lightning in a bottle once in a while, but they won't run the table and they won't get the benefit of the doubt when compared to other teams with a loss.
Oregon: I think that if the Ducks were going to win it all, they already would have won it. They came close in 2011, losing to Auburn in the BCS NCG. But the trend has been generally downward since then. And Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, Georgia, et. al., have gotten better at the same time. I second Brutus' point about west coast football. It's in decline for a number of factors--socially, demographically, etc. Fewer great athletes on the west coast want to play football.
Washington: Same problem that Oregon faces with a talent pool that is shrinking, certainly in relative terms and maybe in absolute terms. Also, I doubt that Washington--which does not have a billionaire donor like Oregon does--is willing to spend the megadollars necessary to compete in the facilities arms race.
Iowa: The Hawks might have a great run some year, running through the regular season unbeaten and catching an East Division champ having a down year in the CCG. But it's hard to see them doing all that and then winning two more games against top-4 opponents.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is a stronger program than Iowa these days, but the same limiting factors apply.
Ole Miss: No way. They'll get caught cheating before they can ever get good enough to break through.
VaTech: The Hokies' day has come and gone under Frank Beamer. No evidence that they'll ever be as good as he got them, and he didn't get them good enough.
WVU: No. Certainly not as long as they are the odd school out in the Big 12. The 'Eers need to be in a conference with their neighbors and traditional rivals.
UCLA: Again, the west coast talent shrinkage will keep L.A.'s #2 program from making it to the top. And UCLA is #2 for a reason. Even with USC in near-total disarray, UCLA hasn't been able to make up any ground on the Trojans.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #8 on:** January 23, 2020, 07:38:20 PM »

I went with Oregon.

FearlessF · « **Reply #9 on:** January 23, 2020, 07:41:44 PM »

Oregon

they were close a few seasons ago, they have money, no big conference hurdles, should be enough talent in the PAC footprint

Washington as a close 2nd, same situation

Wisconsin a close 3rd.

a little luck in the Conference champ game and they have the game to punch with heavy weights - running game and defense - similar to the Huskers back in the day, just gotta get lucky with a QB and a couple skill players in recruiting and they can do it.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #10 on:** January 23, 2020, 09:04:37 PM »

Not Wisconsin. The recruiting footprint is decent, but they can't get top-tier talent at WR and DB, sans a few outliers here and there. This, and there is no huge booster money. Everyone* in the B1G gets good coin from TV and such, so no advantage there either.

* Let's see what happens when the newbies start getting full share. Is UNL getting full share yet?

FearlessF · « **Reply #11 on:** January 23, 2020, 10:22:24 PM »

yes sir,

from a May 18, 2019 article

The Big Ten is rich. Really rich.

According to a recent report from USA Today, the league had nearly $759 million in revenue for the 2018 fiscal year. That’s the first year of the Big Ten’s new TV deal kicking in, and that figure dwarfs the Big Ten’s revenue from fiscal year 2017, which was $512.9 million.

No conference, according to the report, has ever made more.

Not the SEC, which made $660 million in revenue for fiscal year 2018. Not the Big 12, which made $374 million for its 10-team league. (Texas has its own sweet side deals that helped break up the league, as you may recall.)

Nebraska, along with 11 other Big Ten schools with a full share, got north of $50 million in its Big Ten payout.

FearlessF · « **Reply #12 on:** January 23, 2020, 10:25:05 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on January 23, 2020, 09:04:37 PM

Not Wisconsin. The recruiting footprint is decent, but they can't get top-tier talent at WR and DB, sans a few outliers here and there.

gotta have some luck like the Huskers found in the 90s

a few skill position recruits turned golden and they turned the corner

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #13 on:** January 23, 2020, 10:45:50 PM »

If you could somehow combine Wisconsin's lines with Oregon's skill players...

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Topic: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

medinabuckeye1

Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

medinabuckeye1

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

utee94

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

MaximumSam

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

CWSooner

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

847badgerfan

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

FearlessF

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

847badgerfan

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

FearlessF

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

FearlessF

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?