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I voted Oregon narrowly over the Field.   They have total  committment from school, donors and have developed a pretty good track record of recruiting outside PNW.    Someone has to be the big fish in this consensus of a shrinking 'west coast'.  I think if you accept the possibility that they could finish undefeated for the season, something they have proven they can do,  why cant they win two games in the present day format?

I really thought Brutus would have more to say on this subject

If you could somehow combine Wisconsin's lines with Oregon's skill players...

… you'd have Ohio State.

no, but you can choose "field"

derned rebel w/o a cause

As a general issue, I think it is a LOT less likely for any team to win their first AP Title now that we have a playoff.  I'll explain with two examples:

First, consider Iowa in 2015:
The Hawkeyes had a favorable cross-over schedule in which they played:

• 1-7 Maryland and
• 2-6 Indiana

While they missed:

• 7-1 Michigan State,
• 7-1 Ohio State,
• 6-2 Michigan,
• 4-4 Penn State, and
• 1-7 Rutgers

They had a manageable but not awful OOC in which they played two P5 teams (ISU which finished 3-9 and Pitt which finished 8-5) along with a horrible FBS team (N. Texas) and an FCS team (IllSt).  They got to the B1GCG at 8-0/12-0 and ranked #4 in the AP Poll behind 12-0 Clemson, 11-1 Bama, and 11-1 Oklahoma.  

In the old, pre-playoff days they probably would have been #2 behind only Clemson.  

1997 and prior:  In the pre-BCS days they would not have had to play a CG and would have headed to Pasadena to play a relatively weak Pac Champion.  Then, all they would have needed to win an NC would have been to beat Stanford and hope Clemson got upset in their bowl.  

1998-2010:  In the BCS but pre-B1GCG days they would likely have been #2 and played Clemson in the BCSNCG.  Then it is just a one-game shot.  All they would have needed is one upset.  

2010-2013:  In the BCS/B1GCG days they would have needed just two upsets, a minor upset in the B1GCG (they almost got) and an upset of Clemson in the BCSNCG.  

In the modern era they were nowhere close to a NC.  They got to 8-0/12-0 but to win an NC they would have needed:

• A minor upset of MSU in the B1GCG (even here, they were VERY lucky that it was MSU and not tOSU).  
• A HUMONGOUS upset of Alabama in the CFP semi-final.  To illustrate just how far this was from reality, the MSU team that beat Iowa in the B1GCG got smoked 38-0 by Bama in the CFP semi-final.  
• Another HUMONGOUS upset of Clemson in the CFPCG.  

Several people have mentioned Oregon and the fact that they were "close" in 2010.  Well, they were but the same issue applies for the Ducks.  In 2010 the Ducks got to 12-0 and #2 in the AP Poll.  That got them into the BCSNCG where all they needed was a win over Auburn.  Again, look at eras:

1997 and prior:  The Ducks would have headed to the Rose Bowl at 12-0 needing only a win and an upset of Auburn to win an NC.  

1998-2010:  The Ducks would get into the BCSNCG and need just a single upset win to get an NC.  

2010-2013:  The Ducks would have had to play a P12CG, then the BCSNCG.  

2014-present:  From the point that they got to 12-0, the Ducks would need the following to win an NC:

• A P12CG win,
• A HUMONGOUS upset over a CFP team in the semi-final, and
• A HUMONGOUS upset over a CFP semi-final winner in the CFPCG.  

Oregon was close in 2010 but that same scenario today wouldn't really be very close.  

all true, but it's also less likely for any helmet team to win a title as well

For any individual helmet team, yes.  However, for the helmets as a group it is MORE likely.  

takes a great team and a little luck

You may remember, in another thread a while back I was having a discussion with @utee94 in which I stated that it took some luck.  Some of that luck is simply having a great team in the right year.  I think that 2019-tOSU was a great team.  Frankly, I think that team would win the NC most years but this year there was an equal* (or near-equal) in Clemson and a superior team in LSU.  Most years you wouldn't see that.  At most there would be one near-equal and you wouldn't get them until the CG and only if they made it.  

LSU obviously had a great team, LSU was also a bit lucky they didn't have to play tOSU in the final

This is what I was referring to when I called Clemson a "near equal" of Ohio State.  Looking at that game, I think Ohio State was a better team that happened to lose but Clemson was clearly at least close to the Buckeyes or else it wouldn't have been so close that one or two plays could flip the game.  All-in-all, I agree that LSU was somewhat lucky to face Clemson rather than tOSU but I think that was a relatively slight difference.  

I think it's Oregon, and it isn't close.  Nike has spent them into a powerhouse in other sports.   Plus, when the tourney inevitably goes to 8, they won't have to worry about a non conference loss to Auburn.  If it doesn't go to 8, they should start scheduling like Washington