The science of this is quite a bit more involved and "sturdy" than that, in my view, it's also quite complex. I personally am persuaded by the "science" that the increase is meaningful. I am quite a bit less confident in the models. The complexity of the models is such that, in my experience, they are simply various "line fits" to past measurements and not necessarily predictive of the future.
The story here, one of, is how most on the right dispute the findings, and most on the left accept them, and most of either have done more than reading their own confirmation bias summaries of it all. Ergo, their opinions are based on their politics, not the science. This is not unusual of course. If a person WANTS to believe a certain way they can find justification for that somewhere. Reading a lot about it with an open mind and trying to discern what is mostly likely real is a LOT more work, almost impossible really.