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Topic: Weather, Climate, and Environment

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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3920 on: January 21, 2021, 01:23:14 PM »
The Big Island has almost every climate type extant, I think 11 of 13.  The west side is a desert, the rain one day a year place.  Hilo is a rain forest, over 300 inches a year.

One nice thing about going there is the weather is predictable.
He was stationed on Oahu

Not sure what their rain situation is but my dad said every day around noon it would rain gently for about 30 minutes then the sun would come back out 
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3921 on: January 21, 2021, 02:03:49 PM »
Oahu is much smaller of course with lower mountains and less of a rain shadow, so it rains in Honolulu fairly often.

Two of the volcanoes on The BI are nearly 14,000 feet high.  Mauna Loa is truly massive, it's rare to see the whole thing, it's usually obscured.

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3922 on: January 23, 2021, 04:45:55 PM »
"It's the greastest gig in the world,being alive. You get to go to Denny's, wear a hat, whatever you wanna do." - Norm Macdonald

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3923 on: January 24, 2021, 10:02:58 AM »
Hope for better models??

https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2021/0122/Meet-the-team-shaking-up-climate-models

If scientists can create a new way to predict climate change – making it as accurate as, say, forecasting the weather – it would help people make everyday decisions: how high to build a sea wall or what crops to plant.

There are three main U.S. government-funded climate centers: in New York City; Boulder, Colorado; and Princeton, New Jersey. Rather than compete with the established centers for federal financing, CliMA turned to private money. Soon, it won a pledge from former Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt and Wendy Schmidt, whose philanthropy for the environment ranges from oil cleanup competitions to deep-sea submersibles. They pledged most of the funds needed for the first three years, and with smaller grants, CliMA launched on Sept. 11, 2018.

John Marshall, who developed the oceans model at MIT, says getting funds from outside the government is “a hugely important part of the project.”

“I see the project as a disrupter, like an Uber project,” he says. “Any organization which has been going for a long time, it kind of ossifies.”
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3924 on: January 24, 2021, 10:13:14 AM »
These models can only be checked against past history obviously, and that depends on the accuracy of historical global temperature records.

We have 5-6-7 different models.  They all say about the same thing because they were "modeled" using the same historical data.

But they use different parameters and coefficients.  They also inform us very very clearly that we don't have a chance to do much about this.  If the climate really is warming by say 2.5°C by say 2050, a crash super program of great expense might, maybe, cut that to 2.2°C.  Perhaps.

It's simply too late, much of this is already done or baked in.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3925 on: January 24, 2021, 10:46:53 AM »
this seems to be a bit different.

Using current data from the entire planet

possibly not worrying about checking against past history

also stating that it is too late and we need to calculate the height of a see wall or how far back to move buildings since the oceans will raise, regardless of what measures are taken

very possible it's all burffle and a way to make money

I like the idea of fleecing people outside the government
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3926 on: January 24, 2021, 10:53:26 AM »
Most climate modelers use past data when they create a model. But that means there is a fire hose of fresh climate measurements that go mostly unused – from satellites, balloons, ships, planes, weather stations, and thousands of sensors floating in the seas. Dr. Schneider wants to plug into that stream and force a new model to learn from it.

“The crux is to use more data, period,” he says. He and his colleagues have spent two years figuring out how to do it. 


Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3927 on: January 24, 2021, 10:54:50 AM »
Using more data would be fine IFF the additional data are reliable and accurate, which is not the case.  Sat data is known to be off for example.

I'm not a fan based on this article (which could be misleading).  This is just one more model.  Yay.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3928 on: January 24, 2021, 11:12:47 AM »
I agree, but trying to have a bit of hope

if only to reveal many of the models are very flawed and should go away
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3929 on: January 24, 2021, 11:24:09 AM »
We can't know which models are flawed, beyond the fact they are all flawed, until they are tested against future measurements.

This problem is inherent with any model that purports to predict the future aside from those based clearly on core scientific principles.

We know pretty clearly when the sun will burn out and how.  Climate change could be significantly worse, or better, than the models predict.

I suspect this "new model" will predict about the same future as the existing models, for the same reason.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3930 on: January 24, 2021, 11:32:11 AM »
I'm not sure we really know when the sun will burn out

I heard of "new" revelations regularly stating that old long held beliefs that were regarded as solid and scientific, that are revealed to be inaccurate.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3931 on: January 24, 2021, 11:34:01 AM »
I'm not sure we really know when the sun will burn out

It's not that hard a calculation, we know the amount of hydrogen left in the sun, how fast it is being "burned", and dot dot dot.  We know helium will start being fused at some point, and then give or take a few million years it will expand and then collapse.

It's easier to model than climate anyway, and who can argue with the output?

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3932 on: January 24, 2021, 11:55:49 AM »
what are the models designed to show

that climate changes?

nobody can argue against that

the key is just how much is man's actions causing this change

while I'm for keeping our environment as clean as possible I really have never bought into the idea that mans actions can actually change the climate

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #3933 on: January 24, 2021, 11:59:01 AM »
do we really know the amount of hydrogen in the sun?

or how fast it's being burned?

someone may discover that past measurements were inaccurate

give or take a few million years could be give of take a few billion years, and then why worry?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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