Cripes, we have this thread, and I didn't even get into why this event is an iron mine of disappointment.
Medina has helpfully provided the stats that show, basically, if you have a seed higher than eighth, you on average won't play to seed. The average 1 doesn't, make the Final Four. Average 2 doesn't make the Elite 8, etc. But instead of incorporating that math, we go the other way.
The fans of every 1 seed think short of the Final Four is a disappointment. Same for most 2 seeds, unless the 1 is really strong. And usually a 3 seed or two thinks they should have a shot. So you have say 8 teams that'll be disappointed without a Final Four. The issue remains that most of the ability to overachieve is tied up in being a lower seed (a tall midget, as someone puts it).
And that's before you factor in upsets. So you might play to seed, except in the second weekend, your opponent might be 7 or lower. And then, even if you're a 5 in the Sweet 16, you'll be pissed if you lose to an 8. (I remember an argument with an OSU fan after an Elite 8 run as a 2 seed being highly pissed because they lost to an upstart).
Wisconsin will be interesting there. The computers say this team is vulnerable, and the last two games don't help. Still, it looked Final Four quality early. It'll probably be a 3 seed (though maybe a 4?), so a Sweet 16 would be to seed, and a second-round upset would be pretty unsurprising. But I'd bet UW fans will feel something was left on the table unless it's a close loss to the 2 or a loss to a very solid 1.
