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Topic: Top 25
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utee94 · « **Reply #448 on:** November 15, 2019, 04:50:03 PM »

Quote from: MrNubbz on November 15, 2019, 12:11:36 PM

Well a 12 pack,fire place and 2 people - you have philosophy,anyhoo gonna need that EggNog recipe - the season is coming

Pretty sure that recipe is in the Recipes thread. We'll be making a huge batch in a couple of weeks for our family Christmas party.

CWSooner · « **Reply #449 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:32:52 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 15, 2019, 04:19:58 PM

I disagree with your assumption that Baylor can't get to the CFP.

They are currently 9-0 and 13th. There are very good reasons for them to only be 13th:
Their OOC was pathetic. Stephen F. Austin is an FCS team and a bad one at that. UTSA is a midling CUSA team and Rice is winless and fighting it out with Akron for #1 in the Bottom 10.
Their nine wins include multiple close calls against mediocre teams: They beat 5-4 ISU by two at home, they beat woeful Rice by only 8, they beat sub .500 TxTech by only a FG at home, they beat 3-6 WVU by just a FG at home, and they beat sub .500 TCU by one score as well.

All of that said, last week Minnesota got their first quality win and vaulted up nine spots to 8th from 17th. If Baylor beats #10 Oklahoma this weekend I expect them to jump over at least Oklahoma, Auburn, and Florida. That alone would get them to #10 without any upsets. Then the next week they host #19 Texas while #9 PSU travels to #2 Ohio State. If they back up the hypothetical OU win with a hypothetical TX win they'll likely jump the tOSU/PSU loser which would put them even with the two 12-1 PAC teams (Oregon and Utah).

Note, I'm assuming here that by that time (after the 11/23 games) Minnesota will either be 11-0 and ahead of the two PAC teams or not 11-0 and no longer a problem for Baylor.

Then in the final weekend Baylor has woeful Kansas but there are a whole lot of opportunities for upsets ahead of them:
#1 LSU has aTm
#2 tOSU has #15 Michigan on the road
#3 Clemson . . . nevermind
#4 Georgia's best opportunity for an upset is this weekend
#5 Bama has Auburn on the road
#6 Oregon has a rivalry game against OrSU
#7 Utah has Colorado
#8 Minnesota has #14 Wisconsin

Then on CG weekend, the Bears (at 12-0) would most likely get another shot at Oklahoma. If it isn't Oklahoma it will be a B12 team that wins out from here and is pretty highly ranked. Meanwhile:
Either #1 LSU or #4 UGA will lose (if they haven't already), and
Either #2 tOSU or #8 Minnesota will lose (if they haven't already), and
Either #6 Oregon or #7 Utah will lose (if they haven't already).
#5 Bama will not have an opportunity to impress the committee with a game against a highly ranked opponent while Baylor will.

If Baylor wins out I confidently predict not only that they will make the CFP, but that they will be seeded no worse than behind these three potential higher seeds:
LSU, if they win out
Clemson, if they win out
tOSU/MN if one of them wins out

They will be ahead of the potential 12-1 PAC Champion and ahead of a potential 11-1 Bama. At 13-0 Baylor is in.

Great points, Medina.
And 538 agrees with you. It gives Baylor an 88% chance of making the CFP if they win out.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #450 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:54:37 PM »

A big issue for Baylor is that they don't get a chance at any new meat in the XIICG. They'll simply beat a team they already beat, thus nullifying (somewhat) the effect.

Scheduling a guaranteed rematch before the season starts is still one of the dumbest things a conference has ever done.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #451 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:56:57 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 15, 2019, 02:24:00 PM

You left out vs. WVU, a 52-14 win.

I said that's 3 uninspiring outcomes out of their last 4 games......so yes, the other game not listed was 'inspiring'....

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #452 on:** November 15, 2019, 06:23:42 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 15, 2019, 05:32:52 PM

Great points, Medina.
And 538 agrees with you. It gives Baylor an 88% chance of making the CFP if they win out.

I like that site and I like their predictor. Here are the odds they give for the top teams to make the playoff if they win out:

LSU: >99%
tOSU: >99%
Clemson: >99%
Georgia: >99%
Bama: 28%
Oregon: 73%
Utah: 71%
Minnesota: 98%
Penn State: 89%
Oklahoma: 79%
Florida: 2%
Auburn: 14%
Baylor: 88%
Wisconsin: 12% (rises to 36% if they win the B1G)
Michigan: 5%
Notre Dame: <1%
Cincy: <1%
Memphis: <1%
Texas: 4%
Iowa: <1%
Boise: <1%
OkSU: <1%
Navy: <1%
KSU: <1%
ApSt: <1%

As I see it, there is a big distinction between Baylor and Oklahoma. Ranked by likelihood to make the CFP if they win out they are:

LSU, 99%+
tOSU, 99%+
Clemson, 99%+
UGA, 99%+
Minnesota, 98%
Penn State, 89%
Baylor, 88%
Oklahoma, 79%
Oregon, 73%
Utah, 71%
Bama, 28%

As I said in another thread, I think that those top-7 effectively control their own destiny. I think any of them would get in if they won out. For the other four it is a bit of a crapshoot. Behind that is basically almost no chance.

utee94 · « **Reply #453 on:** November 15, 2019, 11:41:28 PM »

4%???

Cincydawg · « **Reply #454 on:** November 16, 2019, 09:54:48 AM »

If Baylor is 13-0, I want them in the playoff period.

utee94 · « **Reply #455 on:** November 16, 2019, 01:13:16 PM »

A 13-0 Baylor will be in the CFP. They haven't left out an undefeated P5 champ yet and they're not going to start this year.

However, I don't think Baylor will end up 13-0. They might beat the Sooners once, but I doubt they can beat them twice.

TyphonInc · « **Reply #456 on:** November 16, 2019, 02:20:38 PM »

Why Ohio State football has broken the College Football Playoff

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2019/11/why-ohio-state-football-has-broken-the-college-football-playoff-but-can-make-it-easy-this-year.html

CWSooner · « **Reply #457 on:** November 16, 2019, 06:51:16 PM »

Quote from: TyphonInc on November 16, 2019, 02:20:38 PM

Why Ohio State football has broken the College Football Playoff

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2019/11/why-ohio-state-football-has-broken-the-college-football-playoff-but-can-make-it-easy-this-year.html

Good article.

I am more convinced than ever that there have to be some solid criteria. Not just "four best," as the Committee not only can't say what that means from year to year, it can't say what that means from week to week.

I move that conference championship be a hard-and-fast requirement. Any independent must go undefeated to be in the top 4.

I know that would often eliminate one of the "four best" teams, but so be it.

Kris60 · « **Reply #458 on:** November 17, 2019, 09:18:07 AM »

As of 11-17-19

1. LSU
2. Ohio St
3. UGA
4. Clemson
5. Penn St
6. Oklahoma
7. Oregon
8. Utah
9. Minnesota
10. Baylor
11. Bama
12. Florida
13. Wisconsin
14. Michigan
15. Notre Dame
16. Auburn
17. Boise St
18. Iowa
19. Memphis
20. Cincinnati
21. Ok St
22. SMU
23. Appy St
24. USC
25. Iowa St

utee94 · « **Reply #459 on:** November 17, 2019, 09:53:55 AM »

Congrats on the win yesterday, Kris!

Kris60 · « **Reply #460 on:** November 17, 2019, 10:34:33 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on November 17, 2019, 09:53:55 AM

Congrats on the win yesterday, Kris!

Oh man, we needed it. Brown started Bowling Green transfer Jarrett Doege at QB and he played well. Doege didn’t get here until May so Brown is going to RS him this year (I think, if we rally to make a bowl things could get interesting). So now the fanbase is all of a sudden a lot more optimistic about next year b/c Austin Kendall has just been uninspiring this year. There have been whispers that Doege was the best QB all along but Brown wanted him to get a full year learning the system and then have 2 years of eligibility left.

Idk. We’ll see. WVU is super young. They return a boatload of guys who got a lot of playing time this year. I’m really hoping by Brown’s 4th year they can make a serious run at the conference.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #461 on:** November 17, 2019, 10:40:19 AM »

Doege...that name sounds familiar. Didn't Texas Tech have a Doege? Checked - his brother, Seth, was TTU's starting QB in '11 and '12.

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Topic: Top 25

utee94

Re: Top 25

CWSooner

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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medinabuckeye1

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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TyphonInc

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CWSooner

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Kris60

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utee94

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Kris60

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OrangeAfroMan

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