If Baylor wins out, it will have two victories over OU and a win over Texas in addition to what it's got now. And it will have virtually no way of getting into the CFP because there are too many teams ahead of it who perhaps are ranked higher than they should be.
I disagree with your assumption that Baylor can't get to the CFP.
They are currently 9-0 and 13th. There are very good reasons for them to only be 13th:
- Their OOC was pathetic. Stephen F. Austin is an FCS team and a bad one at that. UTSA is a midling CUSA team and Rice is winless and fighting it out with Akron for #1 in the Bottom 10.
- Their nine wins include multiple close calls against mediocre teams: They beat 5-4 ISU by two at home, they beat woeful Rice by only 8, they beat sub .500 TxTech by only a FG at home, they beat 3-6 WVU by just a FG at home, and they beat sub .500 TCU by one score as well.
All of that said, last week Minnesota got their first quality win and vaulted up nine spots to 8th from 17th. If Baylor beats #10 Oklahoma this weekend I expect them to jump over at least Oklahoma, Auburn, and Florida. That alone would get them to #10 without any upsets. Then the next week they host #19 Texas while #9 PSU travels to #2 Ohio State. If they back up the hypothetical OU win with a hypothetical TX win they'll likely jump the tOSU/PSU loser which would put them even with the two 12-1 PAC teams (Oregon and Utah).
Note, I'm assuming here that by that time (after the 11/23 games) Minnesota will either be 11-0 and ahead of the two PAC teams or not 11-0 and no longer a problem for Baylor.
Then in the final weekend Baylor has woeful Kansas but there are a whole lot of opportunities for upsets ahead of them:
- #1 LSU has aTm
- #2 tOSU has #15 Michigan on the road
- #3 Clemson . . . nevermind
- #4 Georgia's best opportunity for an upset is this weekend
- #5 Bama has Auburn on the road
- #6 Oregon has a rivalry game against OrSU
- #7 Utah has Colorado
- #8 Minnesota has #14 Wisconsin
Then on CG weekend, the Bears (at 12-0) would most likely get another shot at Oklahoma. If it isn't Oklahoma it will be a B12 team that wins out from here and is pretty highly ranked. Meanwhile:
- Either #1 LSU or #4 UGA will lose (if they haven't already), and
- Either #2 tOSU or #8 Minnesota will lose (if they haven't already), and
- Either #6 Oregon or #7 Utah will lose (if they haven't already).
- #5 Bama will not have an opportunity to impress the committee with a game against a highly ranked opponent while Baylor will.
If Baylor wins out I confidently predict not only that they will make the CFP, but that they will be seeded no worse than behind these three potential higher seeds:
- LSU, if they win out
- Clemson, if they win out
- tOSU/MN if one of them wins out
They will be ahead of the potential 12-1 PAC Champion and ahead of a potential 11-1 Bama. At 13-0 Baylor is in.