header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)

 (Read 10541 times)

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6100
  • Liked:
Play Like a Champion Today

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6100
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #155 on: September 02, 2019, 10:27:06 AM »
I agree that a dominant PLUS serviceable offense is more reliable than an recessive and nonserviceable offense.....
I have no idea what you mean.  ;)
Play Like a Champion Today

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 72991
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #156 on: September 02, 2019, 10:28:21 AM »
The SEC Shorts folks are nearing old Saturday Night Live territory at times.  They do a wuuf some, but their shorts are funny, and short.

The most important thing in comedy ...

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17974
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #157 on: September 02, 2019, 10:43:17 AM »
What stats would a "good defense" put up playing in the Big 12?  Take UGA as a pretty decent defense, when they played OU they gave up a lot of points (one on a scoop and score TD).  Some of this defense stuff is because your opponents also focus on offense.

Perhaps Texas this year is an example of a pretty decent defense?

It would be interesting to see a stat of how a defense held the opposition UNDER or OVER their averages on offense, taking out pastries.
TCU typically has a good defense even in the B12. 

And yes, I think you should probably look at how the defense does against teams outside its own conference to get an idea of whether or not it's "good" relative to other teams.  You don't even really need to take out the pastries if you're comparing a team's performance against one defense, relative to its average performance against all other opponents, as you suggested.


Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 72991
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #158 on: September 02, 2019, 10:47:59 AM »
I was just thinking that a pastry is playing mostly other pastries, to a P5 team would look a lot better in general against them.

But relative performance in some sense is what counts, not absolute.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17974
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #159 on: September 02, 2019, 10:53:59 AM »
With teams only playing 3 or 4 OOC games, I don't think you get much data if you remove all the cupcakes.  Especially for those pastry-loving teams in the SECSECSEC. ;)


Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 72991
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #160 on: September 02, 2019, 11:03:14 AM »
You can do it against conference opponents obviously, even 100% and get useful data.

If OU gave up 325 yards against Oklahoma State, but they averaged 425 yards, that is a good outing relatively.

I think every P5 team should play 10 P5 opponents each year.  My Dawgs have a couple of pastries over the next two weeks and it's boring.  Of course, the Vols had a pastry that didn't go down well.

I still can't believe that game.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19115
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #161 on: September 02, 2019, 11:13:43 AM »
OU vs UGA last year is a sample size of one, and basically meaningless.  OU's season totals on defense were valid - they happened, and as has been said, they allowed a lot of season-highs to opposing offenses.

OU vs Houston is also a sample size of one.  Houston may have a top 5 offense, nationally.  We have to wait and see.  So saying the defense is the same as last year AND saying it's improved are both too early to tell.




As for great defense > great offense...
logically, a point allowed is not equal to a point scored.  If you don't allow any points, you cannot lose.  You can win, lose or tie if you score, but you can only win or tie if you allow no points.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 38297
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #162 on: September 02, 2019, 12:15:15 PM »
basically meaningless, but has some meaning
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 72991
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #163 on: September 02, 2019, 12:21:05 PM »
basically meaningless, but has some meaning
Like most of our posts ....

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17974
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #164 on: September 02, 2019, 12:34:51 PM »
You can do it against conference opponents obviously, even 100% and get useful data.

If OU gave up 325 yards against Oklahoma State, but they averaged 425 yards, that is a good outing relatively.

I think every P5 team should play 10 P5 opponents each year.  My Dawgs have a couple of pastries over the next two weeks and it's boring.  Of course, the Vols had a pastry that didn't go down well.

I still can't believe that game.

Well sort of, but I believe what we were originally trying to tease out here, is whether B12 defensive absolute stats are higher than... say... SEC absolute defensive stats because the defenses are worse?  Or because they face better offenses on average?  

So separating out the conference and OOC stats is a key way to help make that determination.  

For individual teams, rather than the entire conference, if you're trying to figure out if that ONE defense is better than the absolute stats might make it appear, then sure, the average of ALL games played could be used.  In that case, if you're looking at Texas' 2018/19 defense then you'd look at the absolute yards/points allowed against an opponent, and then compare it to that opponent's average yards/ppg against all non-Texas opponents. Overall I think last year Texas' defense was pretty good and usually allowed fewer points/yards than the opponent scored otherwise, although I haven't looked too closely at the numbers.  

And hopefully this year the defense will be even better, although we lost quite a few starters. 

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7928
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #165 on: September 02, 2019, 12:36:19 PM »
What stats would a "good defense" put up playing in the Big 12?  Take UGA as a pretty decent defense, when they played OU they gave up a lot of points (one on a scoop and score TD).  Some of this defense stuff is because your opponents also focus on offense.

Perhaps Texas this year is an example of a pretty decent defense?

It would be interesting to see a stat of how a defense held the opposition UNDER or OVER their averages on offense, taking out pastries.
A good question, and I think I can give an interesting answer.

I started with that 2017 UGA team, was there a Big 12 team that year with a good D? Based on advanced stats, which adjust for opposition and often tempo, the answer is yes. Texas.

That year UGA was 12th in S&P+ defense, Texas 14th, about a point difference. In FEI, based on drive data, UGA was 4th, Texas 7th, though there was a bit of a gap with them being that close.

In terms of raw stats, Texas vs UGA.
Texas allowed 4.8 more PPG (6th vs 29th)
0.5 yards per play (10th vs 37th)
71.7 YPG (6th vs 43rd)
7.5 more plays (16th vs 72nd)

They were pretty close in points per drive as well, factoring out FCS.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17974
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #166 on: September 02, 2019, 12:39:47 PM »
A good question, and I think I can give an interesting answer.

I started with that 2017 UGA team, was there a Big 12 team that year with a good D? Based on advanced stats, which adjust for opposition and often tempo, the answer is yes. Texas.

That year UGA was 12th in S&P+ defense, Texas 14th, about a point difference. In FEI, based on drive data, UGA was 4th, Texas 7th, though there was a bit of a gap with them being that close.

In terms of raw stats, Texas vs UGA.
Texas allowed 4.8 more PPG (6th vs 29th)
0.5 yards per play (10th vs 37th)
71.7 YPG (6th vs 43rd)
7.5 more plays (16th vs 72nd)

They were pretty close in points per drive as well, factoring out FCS.

Horns don't play FCS. :)

Interesting.  How specifically do the advanced stats take into account that Texas is likely playing more high-scoring/high yardage offenses in the B12 than Georgia is in the SEC?

mcwterps1

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3152
  • Liked:
Re: Summer has ended, long live summer (8/31/19 SOC)
« Reply #167 on: September 02, 2019, 01:34:03 PM »
Just happy to have this guy back...


 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.