I don't even think it was wrong particularly.
This is a big part of my entire point here. If Bama>Wisconsin in 2016 wasn't wrong then why are we even talking about bias?
I could claim that Bama>tOSU in 2017 was based on bias, but I'm not saying that largely because I don't think it was wrong.
I do think that the committee is overly biased against losses and should consider SoS more strongly. When Ohio State got in in 2016 I optimistically hoped that it was mostly due to tOSU's very strong SoS that year. That year the Buckeyes played two P5 Champions, both on the road. They also played P5 Divisional Champion Wisconsin on the road. Granted, I'm a fan of Ohio State so I am biased but I think that it is objectively obvious that getting through a slate that includes those three road games plus 10-3 Michigan with only one loss was VERY impressive.
Bama's 2017 SoS wasn't at the level of Ohio State's in 2016 but it was quite good. Unfortunately, I think the committee showed their hand. IMHO, the final rankings will generally be:
- All of the undefeated P5 teams (Champions by definition)
- All 1-loss P5 Champions
- All 1-loss P5 non-Champions
In four years of the CFP we have never had to go beyond #3 but I assume that if we do, the pattern will repeat such that it will go like this:
- #4. All 2-loss P5 Champions
- #5. All 2-loss P5 non-Champions
- etc
I don't think it should be that simplistic. I think that SoS should be a major consideration. If a team loses one more game than another but played three more tough teams then I think the team with the extra loss should get in.
Part of the problem, of course, is that SoS is subjective. A lot of people on here (see
@847badgerfan above) like to criticize SEC teams like Bama for playing an FCS opponent. I get that, but in the context of CFP contenders I don't think it matters much. In the context of CFP contenders the difference between playing a bad P5 team, a middling or worse G5 team, or an FCS team will almost always be nil. If you are a legitimate CFP contender then you should beat any bad P5 team, any middling or worse G5 team, and any FCS team without breaking a sweat. What does matter, IMHO, is two things:
- How many relative equals did you play. In this context, looking at 2016 tOSU for example, I would consider four of tOSU's opponents to be "relative equals": B12 Champion Oklahoma; B1G Champion Penn State; B1G-W Champion Wisconsin; B1G-E Contender (to the last snap as was recently pointed out to me by @Anonymous Coward ) Michigan.
- How many teams that could beat you on the right day without it being the "upset of the century" did you play. I would consider this to be roughly P5 .500+ teams and a few really high-end G5 teams. In my example of 2016 tOSU that would include: 7-6 Northwestern and 9-4 Nebraska with 6-7 Indiana and Maryland and 10-3 Tulsa as possibles.
