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Topic: Stirring the Pot

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SFBadger96

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #70 on: September 26, 2018, 05:03:29 PM »
In short: helmets matter. They aren't the end-all-be-all, but they do tip the scales.

On the other hand, Wisconsin should have just won the darned conference championship game. Sigh.

Back to the point at hand: an 11-1 Ohio State has a decent shot at beating a 11-2 Wisconsin conference champ into the playoff. It's not a done deal, but it's not hard to imagine. Easiest way to imagine it: Ohio State loses a close game to Penn State. Wisconsin loses to Michigan, but beats Penn State during the season. Penn State wins the head-to-head against Ohio State so it represents the east in the CCG. Wisconsin beats Penn State again in the conference championship game. 11-2 conference champ Wisconsin, 11-2 conference runner up Penn State, 11-1 Ohio State (which, after losing by a hair in Happy Valley, crushes everyone else in its wake, including leaving a nasty blue and maize stain on the turf at the Shoe).

Think about how the polls would treat these teams. Wisconsin will be about 12-13 if it beats Nebraska, then will drop to around 17-20 if it loses to Michigan. If Penn State beats Ohio State this weekend, PSU moves up to the 5-6 range (Stanford or ND will drop, as will OSU, but OSU will stay high if it loses a squeaker: probably 8 or so--probably above the loser of Stanford/ND).

Michigan, fresh off the win against Wisconsin will move up into the 10 range, giving Penn State a further boost when they beat the Maize--who, losing to a top 5 team will drop into the 15 range. Wisconsin, not having beaten anyone of note, will move up with wins into the 15-17 range, then topples top 5 Penn State in Happy Valley. Wow. Big boost--maybe up to 10 or so, depending on what others do.

Ohio State, meanwhile, keeps crushing teams, and keeps sneaking up--surpassing Penn State when it loses at home to Wisconsin. Ohio State is now around #5, and finishes the season with a coronation against Big Blue, stomping then 15 Michigan at home. The winner of Stanford/Notre Dame stumbles down the stretch, Alabama (already knocked LSU down) and Georgia knock one of each other out of contention for the playoff (no one wants them both two years in a row), and there Ohio State, at 11-1, #4 in the country sits while #9 Wisconsin plays #10 Penn State for the conference championship. Frankly, even if Penn State wins that game, it might be a tough sell to vault over Ohio State. But if Wisconsin wins, no chance it gets the nod over the 11-1 Buckeyes.

I've put way too much thought into this, but there you have it. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #71 on: September 26, 2018, 05:20:02 PM »
I would like to thank Mr. TacO for stirring the pot.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #72 on: September 26, 2018, 05:27:17 PM »
In short: helmets matter. They aren't the end-all-be-all, but they do tip the scales.
I think that's probably true, even if the committee tries hard to avoid it. But, the thing about "tipping the scales" is that it implies how things will go in the case of a perfect tie. But in this case, Wisconsin/Alabama wasn't quite that close.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #73 on: September 26, 2018, 05:33:09 PM »
I try not to pine (much) for things never coming back, so the playoff is here to stay, and much more likely to expand than disappear.  I liked the old screwy bowl stuff myself, those bowl committee guys in weird sports coats wondering around seeing game, I'd like to be one of them.

I think it was 1969 when Nebraska had a really good team and was bound for a major bowl and got upset on the last weekend somehow, and fell all the way to the Sub Bowl because every other bowl was taken.  They beat the crap out of some southern team.

Anyway, I still like the sport and enjoy watching, so there's that.
That's a healthy habit. In that spirit, whereas I haven't yet like the idea of the CFP, I do think that expanding it the 6 (with 2 byes) or 8 will be a boon to the sport and regular season. Which I guess means I'm coming around to it, picking to "live in the moment," or whatever.

utee94

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #74 on: September 26, 2018, 05:41:01 PM »
I think that's probably true, even if the committee tries hard to avoid it. But, the thing about "tipping the scales" is that it implies how things will go in the case of a perfect tie. But in this case, Wisconsin/Alabama wasn't quite that close.
Take away the helmet and I think they are pretty close.
It always surprises me when people deny the power that helmetosity has over voters, or selection committee members.  It's usually fans of helmet teams doing the denying.  I guess they don't want to believe their teams get an extra break here and because of their helmets?
Personally, I embrace it.  If Texas ever gets back to winning football games, I'd be darn happy to enjoy the additional benefits of some helmetosity.  :)

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #75 on: September 26, 2018, 05:46:49 PM »
8 teams. P5 conference champions + best G5 team + 2 at-large

Win your conference, you're in. Don't win your conference, you'd better hope you win the beauty contest.

Why is this so freaking hard?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #76 on: September 26, 2018, 07:50:30 PM »
Take away the helmet and I think they are pretty close.
It always surprises me when people deny the power that helmetosity has over voters, or selection committee members.  It's usually fans of helmet teams doing the denying.  I guess they don't want to believe their teams get an extra break here and because of their helmets?
Personally, I embrace it.  If Texas ever gets back to winning football games, I'd be darn happy to enjoy the additional benefits of some helmetosity.  :)
I don't see any evidence for it in the CFP era.  My objection here is that I don't think bias should be assumed.  I think that @847badgerfan and others are assuming bias and then blaming bias for Bama getting in over Wisconsin.  My view is that if there are no logical reasons other than bias then fine, talk about bias.  That isn't the case here.  There were perfectly valid non-bias reasons to take Bama in 2017.  
If and when we have a year where a clearly superior non-helmet team gets jumped by a clearly inferior helmet team then lets talk about bias.  Until then lets not make an accusation that can't be supported by the available evidence.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #77 on: September 26, 2018, 08:05:12 PM »
8 teams. P5 conference champions + best G5 team + 2 at-large

Win your conference, you're in. Don't win your conference, you'd better hope you win the beauty contest.

Why is this so freaking hard?
I've been saying for years that I think this is where we are headed whether we like it or not.  
They'll include the P5 Champs because the P5 run the show.  They'll include the highest ranked G5 Champ to hold off the threat of anti-trust or Congressional action.  The two at-large slots will keep the SEC folks happy because they'll have a chance to get three teams in.  
I am adamantly opposed to @ELA 's proposal to go to 12 and include all 10 Champions because all or most of the G5 Champs, in most years, have no business whatsoever being involved in a post-season national championship tournament.  Besides, I think this would increase the relevance of a LOT of G5 CG's anyway because in most years the two or three highest ranked G5CG participants are going to be from two or three different G5 conferences:
In 2017 it would only have increased interest in the AACCG because the two highest ranked G5CG participants were #14 UCF and #20 Memphis so the AACCG would have been a play-in game just like the big boy conferences.  
In 2016 the ranked G5CG participants were:
  • #17 WMU played Ohio in the MACCG
  • #19 Navy played Temple in the AACCG
  • #24 Houston missed the AACCG due to their loss to Navy
At least WMU and Navy would have had a plausible chance to be the highest ranked G5 Champion with their opponents and a few others as outside possibilities.  

FearlessF

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #78 on: September 26, 2018, 08:49:23 PM »
8 teams. P5 conference champions + best G5 team + 2 at-large

Win your conference, you're in. Don't win your conference, you'd better hope you win the beauty contest.

Why is this so freaking hard?
Win your conference, you'd better hope you win the beauty contest.
Don't win your conference, you'd better hope like heck and pray you win the beauty contest.
Why is this so different?
The beauty pagent continues undaunted, just with more contestants.
Why add more contestants?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #79 on: September 26, 2018, 09:08:12 PM »
Take away the helmet and I think they are pretty close.
It always surprises me when people deny the power that helmetosity has over voters, or selection committee members.  It's usually fans of helmet teams doing the denying.  I guess they don't want to believe their teams get an extra break here and because of their helmets?
Personally, I embrace it.  If Texas ever gets back to winning football games, I'd be darn happy to enjoy the additional benefits of some helmetosity.  :)
I wouldn't deny helmetosity. I'm one of it's celebrators. I'm just acknowledging that Alabama played more ranked teams and had better wins than Wisconsin last year. I'm not sure we've ever developed trustworthy computers for comparing teams, but if we did (therefore eliminating helmet bias), I'd be shocked if more than a percent of them picked Wisconsin over Alabama.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #80 on: September 26, 2018, 09:09:38 PM »
My objection here is that I don't think bias should be assumed.  
That's right. I wouldn't conclude that helmet bias is absent. I'm just looking for proof. This Alabama-Wisconsin "scandal" is insufficient proof. That's all I'm saying.

Mdot21

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #81 on: September 27, 2018, 01:27:20 AM »
8 teams. P5 conference champions + best G5 team + 2 at-large

Win your conference, you're in. Don't win your conference, you'd better hope you win the beauty contest.

Why is this so freaking hard?
it shouldn't be. I think you honestly nailed it.
I'm down. This should be how they do it. Period.

847badgerfan

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #82 on: September 27, 2018, 09:50:55 AM »
I wouldn't deny helmetosity. I'm one of it's celebrators. I'm just acknowledging that Alabama played more ranked teams and had better wins than Wisconsin last year. I'm not sure we've ever developed trustworthy computers for comparing teams, but if we did (therefore eliminating helmet bias), I'd be shocked if more than a percent of them picked Wisconsin over Alabama.
Bama played more over-ranked teams, for sure... What wins were better? The best one looked to have been the LSU game.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: Stirring the Pot
« Reply #83 on: September 27, 2018, 10:09:20 AM »
I don't see any evidence for it in the CFP era.  My objection here is that I don't think bias should be assumed.  I think that @847badgerfan and others are assuming bias and then blaming bias for Bama getting in over Wisconsin.  My view is that if there are no logical reasons other than bias then fine, talk about bias.  That isn't the case here.  There were perfectly valid non-bias reasons to take Bama in 2017.  
If and when we have a year where a clearly superior non-helmet team gets jumped by a clearly inferior helmet team then lets talk about bias.  Until then lets not make an accusation that can't be supported by the available evidence.  
I for sure am not blaming Bama over UW purely on that. I don't even think it was wrong particularly. 
But I think there was a lot of ease in slotting Bama there and little discussion of UW. I think some helmet element played a factor there, along with like three other things I mentioned. 
Earlier you mentioned the phrase "major" bias. In truth, there's two major biases in this process: losses and being in a power conference. Then a big gap, then schedule perception (at some point we might be due for a big discussion about what that means at the top level), then some blend of losing conference title games, helmet, whatnot. 

 

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