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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13748 on: May 14, 2021, 08:33:41 AM »
Not fine with me.

The messaging sucks.

Why should I wear a mask if I'm fully vaccinated and had Covid already?

Why should I get vaccinated if I still have to wear a mask?

How does anyone know who and who is not fully vaccinated?

What a crock O' shit.

This one is going to be irrelevant, very soon.  By the end of June, every single person that wants the vaccine, will have had the chance to get it.  And all those remaining, have chosen to take their chances.

Excluding of course the very small percentage of people that are compromised in some way that makes then completely unable to receive the vaccine. But those people were always going to be vulnerable, and they will need to be extremely cautious in their interactions with others.  

GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13749 on: May 14, 2021, 08:45:10 AM »
The messaging has stunk from the start from all quarters. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13750 on: May 14, 2021, 08:50:25 AM »
I'm at ORD right now, and I'm being forced to wear a mask.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13751 on: May 14, 2021, 08:52:18 AM »
The messaging has stunk from the start from all quarters.
I'm okay with cutting the CDC a little bit of slack early-on, because we really just didn't know much about it.

But at this point, we know that outdoor transmission is basically nonexistent, with or without masks, with or without vaccines.  We've known this for close to a year.  We know that child-to-child transmission and child-to-adult transmission, is statistically insignificant, and looking at global data plus our own data here in the USA, this has been evident for over 6 months.

Yet the messaging on these topics has remained disconnected from scientific findings, for reasons that are completely dissociated from health and well-being.

847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13753 on: May 14, 2021, 08:58:25 AM »
I agree, early in this folks weren't sure about much at all, but now things are fairly clear.  The CDC is just slow to adopt the obvious for some reason, an abundance of caution I suppose.  And, they understand their advice often is misunderstood and misapplied as well.  But like any large organization, they operate by committee.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13754 on: May 14, 2021, 09:05:35 AM »
I agree, early in this folks weren't sure about much at all, but now things are fairly clear.  The CDC is just slow to adopt the obvious for some reason, an abundance of caution I suppose.  And, they understand their advice often is misunderstood and misapplied as well.  But like any large organization, they operate by committee.

I'm hopeful we can use this experience and apply some lessons learned and some best practices from around the country, and around the globe, before the next one.

The loss of life due to COVID has been tragic, but in many ways we're also pretty lucky that the virus itself isn't MORE dangerous.  It's really sobering to imagine what might happen if the next bug we encounter is as lethal as something like Ebola, but is able to hide and transmit during the presymptomatic phase as well as this novel coronavirus does.  I've said it before, but I feel like this has been our opportunity to pressure-test our response systems, and find the (numerous) failure points.  So that for the next one, the REALLY BIG ONE, we're much better prepared.

I believe in the scientific community to be able to do that.  I just don't know that, once the findings make their way over to the bureaucrats, any significant change is going to be allowed.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13755 on: May 14, 2021, 09:51:49 AM »
I think if something is super lethal, it won't transmit well unless there is a long contagious period with few/no symptoms.  Ebola doesn't spread much in part because it kills to fast.  And in part because you get it from bodily fluids apparently.

The COVID thing is because of the long period without symptoms, I think, or no symptoms ever.  Combine that with eventual high lethality and you'd have a major shut down of everything, nobody would leave their homes.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13756 on: May 14, 2021, 11:06:19 AM »
I think if something is super lethal, it won't transmit well unless there is a long contagious period with few/no symptoms.  Ebola doesn't spread much in part because it kills to fast.  And in part because you get it from bodily fluids apparently.

The COVID thing is because of the long period without symptoms, I think, or no symptoms ever.  Combine that with eventual high lethality and you'd have a major shut down of everything, nobody would leave their homes.
Right.  That's exactly what I'm saying.

Historically, the super-lethal viruses have killed too quickly to spread.  But there's no absolute scientific reason for that.  This novel coronavirus has a unique spike protein and attacks numerous body systems in ways we've never seen before.  There's no reason why a more deadly virus won't evolve, that can stay hidden longer, and attack in numerous unexpected ways, like this one does.

There's no scientific reason to think that won't, or can't, happen. 


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13757 on: May 14, 2021, 11:18:04 AM »
Exactly. As pointed out in this thread, HIV was an excellent example of extreme lethality and long asymptomatic period.

If that had been airborne transmission at the R0 of COVID, humanity would have been nearly entirely snuffed out in the 80s. 


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13758 on: May 14, 2021, 12:19:02 PM »
I think really once something of that ilk hits and is understood, we all have to bunker down in place for months.

And yes, the death toll could be 20% of the global pop.  The 1918 flu was close to that, high mortality among middle aged folks, less among the aged.  That also would make something worse, the older folks would be having to try and care for the younger.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13759 on: May 14, 2021, 12:45:31 PM »
I think really once something of that ilk hits and is understood, we all have to bunker down in place for months.

And yes, the death toll could be 20% of the global pop.  The 1918 flu was close to that, high mortality among middle aged folks, less among the aged.  That also would make something worse, the older folks would be having to try and care for the younger.
If it had been airborne transmission of HIV with the same R0 as COVID, it wouldn't likely have even been NOTICED until 99% of the world's population was infected. 

The bigger question would be once we actually started seeing the effects (immune system collapse) in the first of those affected, if we would have had the ability to apply herculean resources to treatments and actually stop it to keep people alive. Obviously in the case of HIV it took decades to develop reliable enough treatments to control it, but that was for a disease that affected a very small portion of the population [and disproportionately one that induced less sympathy from the general public]. Could we have turned on the spigot of medical research to stop the progression before 90%+ of the world died from AIDS?

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13760 on: May 14, 2021, 12:48:09 PM »
I see your point, if the symptoms are delayed for six months or more, we're all done for, aside from the usual random resistance some of us have.

The Plague apparently killed a third of Europe back in the day.  They couldn't figure out how it was transmitted.  But something with delayed symptoms?  Scary.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13761 on: May 15, 2021, 10:18:11 AM »
Interesting read.

Where COVID-19 has and hasn't spread since states reopened: Analysis - ABC News (go.com)
Where COVID-19 has and hasn't spread since states reopened: Analysis - ABC News (go.com)



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