header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

 (Read 771314 times)

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3332 on: May 03, 2020, 03:12:11 PM »
this old news
we discussed this in detail previously
no reason to think this virus is more then .5 to .7% deaths to positive
But the percentage for flu is something like 0.1%, isn't it?
If so, that means that this is 5 to 7 times as deadly as the average flu.
Play Like a Champion Today

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3333 on: May 03, 2020, 03:14:26 PM »
Wouldn't it be nice to know?
I fear our leadership has dragged its feet on testing on purpose to artificially keep the numbers low across the board.  You know, for selfish reasons. 
But that's probably just me hating the guy.  No evidence that he'd act unethically to improve his self-interests.
I think the truth, whatever it is, will be more visible on election day than it is now.  Trying to postpone bad news might work if we were in early October rather than early May.
Play Like a Champion Today

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3334 on: May 03, 2020, 03:15:26 PM »
I dont think theres much question virus deaths are under reported but so are positive cases so no one really can be sure what the real death rate is
Perfect is the enemy of good.

Sure, we can't be certain of the death rate, but we can estimate.  For instance, we know that about 13 out of every 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.  That's not infected New Yorkers, that's ALL New Yorkers.  This means, even if 100% of all New Yorkers have already caught the disease, it has already surpassed the flu's death rate of 0.1%.  

In reality we know that far less than 100% of New Yorkers have had COVID.  Which leads to my math above.

This also assumes adequate medical care.  New York hasn't seen their hospitals reach their breaking point.  When that happens we can expect a far higher death rate.  Italy, for example.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18899
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3335 on: May 03, 2020, 03:18:17 PM »
I think the truth, whatever it is, will be more visible on election day than it is now.  Trying to postpone bad news might work if we were in early October rather than early May.
I'm not saying it's smart.  I posted before about this and all I got was a "huh?" from 847Bastage.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3336 on: May 03, 2020, 03:18:30 PM »
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/

I'm not posting this because I trust the numbers.

Using these data, the researchers calculated the infection fatality rate, that is, the percent of people infected with the disease who die: "A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%," they report.* That's about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza.
The researchers conclude:

You should read the *Update* at the bottom of your link above.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18899
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3337 on: May 03, 2020, 03:20:54 PM »
Widespread testing would have solved a lot of the mystery.  Hell, make it so you have to get tested to get your stimulus check.  A drive-thru, takes 10 min, you know, like how South Korea was doing in February.  

What's the point of being the richest country in the world if we're monkeys fuqing a football when it comes to important stuff like this?!?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3338 on: May 03, 2020, 03:21:40 PM »
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
The Dispatch, a conservative site, has been citing known deaths-to-known infections week-daily, and the rate has been rising to the neighborhood of 5-6%.  They issue the regular disclaimer that that is an artificially high figure, as testing has only scratched the surface of those probably infected.

Here is Friday's summary:

Quote
As of Thursday night, there are now 1,069,424 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 29,515/2.8 percent since yesterday) and 62,996 deaths (an increase of 2,029/3.3 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.9 percent (the true mortality rate is likely much lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 6,231,182 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (205,012 conducted since yesterday), 17.2 percent have come back positive. Meanwhile, 153,947 have recovered from the virus (an increase of 33,227/27.5 percent since yesterday).
Play Like a Champion Today

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71627
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3339 on: May 03, 2020, 03:21:52 PM »
The update does not alter this particular estimate of mortality rates.  The figure may be wrong, obviously, but it exists, it is an example of one estimate that is close to seasonal flu.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71627
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3340 on: May 03, 2020, 03:23:34 PM »
If I had to GUESS, I'd say in the US the figure is about 1% plus or minus about 99%.  I'm joking about the + -.

I am however not sure if we aren't undercounting deaths significantly.  I'd go with one percent as a very crude guess at this point.

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6052
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3341 on: May 03, 2020, 03:25:20 PM »
There's an interesting article here from the NYT.

It contains an argument that increased testing really isn't the Holy Grail, more like the Will-o-the-Wisp.
Play Like a Champion Today

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3342 on: May 03, 2020, 03:34:31 PM »
The update does not alter this particular estimate of mortality rates.  The figure may be wrong, obviously, but it exists, it is an example of one estimate that is close to seasonal flu.
OK, well first things to know.  reason is not a quality source, and they cherry picked data from a valid scientific study to meet their narrative.  The scientific study they cite makes no claims of a 0.1% fatality rate.

For example, you don't count total deaths at the moment when there are still thousands of sick people.  Since then, Santa Clara has 114 deaths reported, which is more than 3x the deaths at the time of this article. 

Here's the link to the actual scientific study:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18899
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3343 on: May 03, 2020, 03:38:32 PM »
A - more information is always better than less information
B - massive, widespread testing would have been A LOT more useful 2 months ago than today

I think she'd easily agree with both of these.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18899
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3344 on: May 03, 2020, 03:39:39 PM »
 The figure may be wrong, obviously, but it exists,
Can we all agree that when this is the case, it's NOT something that should be shared?  C'mon, man.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9342
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3345 on: May 03, 2020, 03:40:13 PM »
Perfect is the enemy of good.

Sure, we can't be certain of the death rate, but we can estimate.  For instance, we know that about 13 out of every 1000 New Yorkers has died from COVID.  That's not infected New Yorkers, that's ALL New Yorkers.  This means, even if 100% of all New Yorkers have already caught the disease, it has already surpassed the flu's death rate of 0.1%. 

In reality we know that far less than 100% of New Yorkers have had COVID.  Which leads to my math above.

This also assumes adequate medical care.  New York hasn't seen their hospitals reach their breaking point.  When that happens we can expect a far higher death rate.  Italy, for example.
New York City population 8,000,000

Virus deaths reported for NYC 13,000

% = .16%

so what weve already estimated the actual death rate is between .5 and .8% 

so what did we prove
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.