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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3304 on: May 03, 2020, 08:18:00 AM »
I found toilet paper on the shelf!!!!

crisis avoided!

glad you made it to Florida w/o issue, Badge
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3305 on: May 03, 2020, 09:18:38 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:18:00 AM
I found toilet paper on the shelf!!!!

crisis avoided!

glad you made it to Florida w/o issue, Badge
now start working on that steak
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3306 on: May 03, 2020, 12:57:56 PM »
Interesting news coming out today.  Turns out that COVID may be more deadly than we anticipated, and we have been under counting deaths related to the disease.  

Pneumonia + Influenza Mortality Rate (separate from COVID) in United States is double the usual rate in previous years

Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact

US endures worst one-day death toll yet as states reopen

As most of you know I'm a data guy, so I have following the numbers closely.  I have a few insights that maybe my fellow stat nerds would like.

*  We only have the capacity to test about 150,000 people a day.  We have, historically, been around a 20% positive rate.  That means, on average, we max out at 30,000 additional confirmed cases per day.  We have been confirming around 30,000 positive cases per day for more than a month now.  If I am to draw a conclusion here, there are probably far more people that have had the virus than we our official numbers.

*  Because the number of confirmed positive cases is probably nowhere close to reality, I have been utilizing the "deaths per day" metric.  This has shown some improvement, but the latest data shows this may be an unreliable number as well.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3307 on: May 03, 2020, 01:17:49 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 12:57:56 PM
Interesting news coming out today.  Turns out that COVID may be more deadly than we anticipated, and we have been under counting deaths related to the disease. 

Pneumonia + Influenza Mortality Rate (separate from COVID) in United States is double the usual rate in previous years

Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact

US endures worst one-day death toll yet as states reopen

As most of you know I'm a data guy, so I have following the numbers closely.  I have a few insights that maybe my fellow stat nerds would like.

*  We only have the capacity to test about 150,000 people a day.  We have, historically, been around a 20% positive rate.  That means, on average, we max out at 30,000 additional confirmed cases per day.  We have been confirming around 30,000 positive cases per day for more than a month now.  If I am to draw a conclusion here, there are probably far more people that have had the virus than we our official numbers.

*  Because the number of confirmed positive cases is probably nowhere close to reality, I have been utilizing the "deaths per day" metric.  This has shown some improvement, but the latest data shows this may be an unreliable number as well.
this old news
we discussed this in detail previously
no reason to think this virus is more then .5 to .7% deaths to positive
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3308 on: May 03, 2020, 01:39:52 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 03, 2020, 07:36:01 AM
Went to Publix yesterday after we rolled in to our home. Everyone was wearing a mask. In Florida.
Welcome to Florida Badge!

my marina was open yesterday for the first time since lockdown.  Went out fishing this morning. I wondered, as I did not get within 100 yards of another human for the entire morning, why this activity was against the rules before??
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3309 on: May 03, 2020, 01:40:23 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This site does not show Thursday as being an unusually high figure of deaths.  

There are indications that the COVID deaths may be higher because deaths from all causes are higher than they have been over the same period over the past four years.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3310 on: May 03, 2020, 01:41:08 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on May 03, 2020, 01:39:52 PM
Welcome to Florida Badge!

my marina was open yesterday for the first time since lockdown.  Went out fishing this morning. I wondered, as I did not get within 100 yards of another human for the entire morning, why this activity was against the rules before??
Was the marina closed by the marina folks or the State?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3311 on: May 03, 2020, 01:41:21 PM »
Wouldn't it be nice to know?
I fear our leadership has dragged its feet on testing on purpose to artificially keep the numbers low across the board.  You know, for selfish reasons.  
But that's probably just me hating the guy.  No evidence that he'd act unethically to improve his self-interests.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3312 on: May 03, 2020, 01:42:31 PM »
Floridians love Publix, lol.  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3313 on: May 03, 2020, 01:50:23 PM »
I don't like Publix at all. Way too expensive.
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3314 on: May 03, 2020, 01:50:42 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 01:17:49 PM
this old news
we discussed this in detail previously
no reason to think this virus is more then .5 to .7% deaths to positive
You really ought to cite a source.  I've been following this as closely as anyone and the lowest number I have ever seen is a 0.8% mortality.  That's a single study that focused on people waiting in line in grocery stores.  Not exactly a low risk group.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3315 on: May 03, 2020, 01:52:43 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 01:40:23 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This site does not show Thursday as being an unusually high figure of deaths. 

There are indications that the COVID deaths may be higher because deaths from all causes are higher than they have been over the same period over the past four years.

That only goes back to yesterday... And it isn't from the same data pool, either.  I'd love to know what the Thursday numbers are.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3316 on: May 03, 2020, 02:00:19 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
That only goes back to yesterday... And it isn't from the same data pool, either.  I'd love to know what the Thursday numbers are.
I found Thursday's numbers on that site.  Shows about 1,900 new deaths on May 1, but 2,400 on the 29th.  That's a problem with so many different data sources.  No matter which source you use, the deaths rate isn't looking as good as we hoped it would be.  :(
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3317 on: May 03, 2020, 02:04:26 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
That only goes back to yesterday... And it isn't from the same data pool, either.  I'd love to know what the Thursday numbers are.
That site has a bar graph down near the bottom that shows reported deaths daily.  It is a different data set, that's my point.  April 30 was 2201, by no means the highest figure on THAT graph from THAT site.

The way the deaths are reported out is not universal and consistent.  The time periods used for the "day" are not consistent.  You need to look at multiple days, a five or ten day running average, or something.

The official CDC site has something like 37,000 US deaths TOTAL because of accounting differences.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

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