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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3318 on: May 03, 2020, 02:07:30 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 01:50:42 PM
You really ought to cite a source.  I've been following this as closely as anyone and the lowest number I have ever seen is a 0.8% mortality.  That's a single study that focused on people waiting in line in grocery stores.  Not exactly a low risk group.
ok beef man cite your source that virus may be more deadly then thought and we can go from there

cause all my sources go in the opposite direction
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3319 on: May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM »
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3320 on: May 03, 2020, 02:17:13 PM »


I'm still looking for data of this sort which I consider totally reliable.  There is a blip apparently beyond cases counted.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3321 on: May 03, 2020, 02:19:09 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
exactly

the NY testing indicates a rate below 1%

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3322 on: May 03, 2020, 02:21:25 PM »
I dont think theres much question virus deaths are under reported but so are positive cases so no one really can be sure what the real death rate is
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3323 on: May 03, 2020, 02:23:16 PM »
We probably won't truly know much of anything for a year. In the meantime, we can search and find all the fear-mongering in the media, all we want.

Actually you don't even need to search. Just open your home page.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3324 on: May 03, 2020, 02:30:50 PM »
I don't know about all this testing either. How many have been completed using kits from the CCP? We already know half of their shit doesn't work. The Illinois Governor I know procured some from them. PPE too.

I talked to my buddy from West Palm this morning. He's retired from now, but his expertise was designing and building sterile factories (for Abbott), including one very large one that was built for Sagent, in China, after he left Abbott. The construction standards in China were laughable, he said, but the CCP forced him to hire Chinese contractors.

He's thinking about going back into the business as a consultant, because there will be a whole lot of new sterile factories being built here in USA, in the coming years.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3325 on: May 03, 2020, 02:44:24 PM »
Presuming the tests are accurate (reasonably), we would need to test say 2,000 people or so of the rep pop around the country to understand this.  One test would be to see how many of them are currently infected.  A second serological test would see how many have antibodies (and probably were infected).  You could do something with these data.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3326 on: May 03, 2020, 02:50:20 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:04:26 PM
That site has a bar graph down near the bottom that shows reported deaths daily.  It is a different data set, that's my point.  April 30 was 2201, by no means the highest figure on THAT graph from THAT site.

The way the deaths are reported out is not universal and consistent.  The time periods used for the "day" are not consistent.  You need to look at multiple days, a five or ten day running average, or something.

The official CDC site has something like 37,000 US deaths TOTAL because of accounting differences.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm


This is the actual CDC link: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3327 on: May 03, 2020, 02:55:15 PM »
They are both "actual CDC links" with different data collected with different metrics and tools.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3328 on: May 03, 2020, 03:03:54 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:07:30 PM
ok beef man cite your source that virus may be more deadly then thought and we can go from there

cause all my sources go in the opposite direction
Sources for the mortality of coronavirus have a fairly large range, but I have yet to see one lower than 0.8%.  That would be 8 times deadlier than the flu.  The data is still being worked on.  Here's a link based on the 0.8% mortality rate: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-05-02/new-york-gov-andrew-cuomo-says-15-000-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies  To get this low number you have to make wild leaps.

Extrapolating the numbers from this:  Assuming 12% have had the disease (which is very debatable):  Deaths about 25,000 (probably low and still rising).  There are about 20 Million people living in New York State. 12% of this would be 2.4M.  25,000/2.4M is a death rate of just over 1%.

your turn. :)
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3329 on: May 03, 2020, 03:06:29 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 02:14:14 PM
The mortality rate has been estimated all over the place obviously.  The early estimates tended to be high, 3.4% was one I recall.  I don't think we know.

The various reports that far more people have antibodies than ever had symptoms is interesting.  We need more data.
All of this is true.  If I had to take a shot in the dark:

Assuming adequate medical care, I think the actual death rate is in the neighborhood of 2%.  That would be 20x more deadly than the flu.  Keep in mind it is probably 2-4 times more contagious as well.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3330 on: May 03, 2020, 03:07:49 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 03, 2020, 02:19:09 PM
exactly

the NY testing indicates a rate below 1%


see my math above.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3331 on: May 03, 2020, 03:10:54 PM »
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/

I'm not posting this because I trust the numbers.

Using these data, the researchers calculated the infection fatality rate, that is, the percent of people infected with the disease who die: "A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%," they report.* That's about the same infection fatality rate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates for seasonal influenza.
The researchers conclude:
Quote
While our study was limited to Santa Clara County, it demonstrates the feasibility of seroprevalence surveys of population samples now, and in the future, to inform our understanding of this pandemic's progression, project estimates of community vulnerability, and monitor infection fatality rates in different populations over time. It is also an important tool for reducing uncertainty about the state of the epidemic, which may have important public benefits.

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