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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3598 on: May 08, 2020, 01:33:04 AM »
There's no "free speech" guarantee when somebody else is providing the microphone.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3599 on: May 08, 2020, 01:46:13 AM »
Of course, but the point remains.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3600 on: May 08, 2020, 08:26:16 AM »
It's on time out. It needs to be.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3601 on: May 08, 2020, 09:14:25 AM »
Restaurants in Illinois now officially closed to dine-in customers until June 26. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3602 on: May 08, 2020, 09:38:30 AM »
I think the response to Covid-19 was good, as long as we learn from it and have a plan for next time.  Yes, a next time is a certainty. 
For the next easily communicable novel virus, maybe we keep all elderly and young home at the outset.  Maybe non-disability unemployment benefits are frozen if you're between the ages of 25-40 - those over 60 will stay home with pay and they'll be replaced (where possible) in the work force by all of those of the median ages in the mean time. 

We can be cautious AND not halt the big, irresistable machine.  I hope we exit this thing (whenever) smarter than when it began.  Maybe the next president will do it.

The fact that Covid-19 doesn't seem to be as bad as once feared is sheer, dumb luck.  When it's such an unknown, caution is prudent.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3603 on: May 08, 2020, 09:40:16 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 09:14:25 AM
Restaurants in Illinois now officially closed to dine-in customers until June 26.
Man, sucks to be them! I have a wide selection of 7 or 8 restaurants in Austin that have chosen to open up for dine-in business (at 25% capacity).

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3604 on: May 08, 2020, 10:09:27 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on May 08, 2020, 09:40:16 AM
Man, sucks to be them! I have a wide selection of 7 or 8 restaurants in Austin that have chosen to open up for dine-in business (at 25% capacity).


if you look at a virus map of Ill its pretty apparent that the vast amount of cases is the Chicago area so why subject the entire state to a restaurant close down 

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3605 on: May 08, 2020, 10:20:18 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on May 08, 2020, 09:38:30 AM
The fact that Covid-19 doesn't seem to be as bad as once feared is sheer, dumb luck.
Isn't it? 

Despite taking measures unprecedented in the last century to restrict transmission, in the span of maybe 7-8 weeks it's killed more people than the worst flu season of the last decade. Despite those measures, we're still adding 25-30 thousand new confirmed cases per day. Despite those measures, the death rate may have declined slightly from its peak [largely due to slowdown in NY] but is holding stable at an average of over 1800 deaths/day (using 7-day rolling average). 

It is still believed to be both more transmissible and have several multiples (at minimum) higher true mortality rate than the flu, although we don't have great numbers/estimates of either. So the total societal impact (total infection rate multiplied by true mortality rate) if left unchecked will be far worse than the flu. 

Where we've been successful is that we didn't overwhelm the healthcare system. But in every other way, this looks about as dangerous as we feared.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3606 on: May 08, 2020, 10:32:05 AM »
It is not as bad as it could have been in the dark days of early March when we didn't have any data, outside of Italy, which looked grim (and was).

The economic impact has been extreme obviously, the stock market is trying to forecast that it's mostly over (the damage).  Whether they are right or not ...

I'm still very worried about immunity, our death figures per day are stubbornly over 2,000 in the US and not appearing to decline, they are shifting from the NYC area to the rest of the country.  Things in general around me remain mostly closed and traffic remains very light, so the "reopening" obviously means you CAN, not that you have to, or that you have to go to any place that remains open.  The state is about at the point where we could be seeing new infections resulting from the governor's decision, but it will be tough to pry that out of the data with testing increasing as well.

This virus appears to be very deadly to older people, and my kid in Texas who is 32 says it is no picnic.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3607 on: May 08, 2020, 10:33:23 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 08, 2020, 10:20:18 AM
Isn't it?

Despite taking measures unprecedented in the last century to restrict transmission, in the span of maybe 7-8 weeks it's killed more people than the worst flu season of the last decade. Despite those measures, we're still adding 25-30 thousand new confirmed cases per day. Despite those measures, the death rate may have declined slightly from its peak [largely due to slowdown in NY] but is holding stable at an average of over 1800 deaths/day (using 7-day rolling average).

It is still believed to be both more transmissible and have several multiples (at minimum) higher true mortality rate than the flu, although we don't have great numbers/estimates of either. So the total societal impact (total infection rate multiplied by true mortality rate) if left unchecked will be far worse than the flu.

Where we've been successful is that we didn't overwhelm the healthcare system. But in every other way, this looks about as dangerous as we feared.
There might have been a decrease in cases per day cause we dont know the total cases

and our testing has greatly increased over the last 3 weeks but per day case count has not

so we might be gaining on it some    maybe
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3608 on: May 08, 2020, 10:36:28 AM »
From The Dispatch:

As of Thursday night, there are now 1,256,972 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 28,369/2.3 percent since yesterday) and 75,670 deaths (an increase of 2,239/3 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 6 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 8,105,513 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (345,742 conducted since yesterday), 15.5 percent have come back positive.


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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3609 on: May 08, 2020, 10:44:44 AM »
I believe we're just testing deeper and deeper into a heavily infected population.  It's impossible we'll ever reach that upper limit to where we're testing and confirming ALL true cases, and I don't think it's likely we'll ever get particularly close to it.

Testing is useful for individual treatment and contact tracing, it certainly has value, but in this country, I don't believe it's ever going provide valuable insight into total infections.  Accurate antibody testing is what will be required to make that determination.

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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3610 on: May 08, 2020, 11:00:31 AM »
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3611 on: May 08, 2020, 11:01:41 AM »
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