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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3542 on: May 06, 2020, 12:36:49 PM »
I respected China for becoming a player in the world. No more. We need to reduce them back to the third-world shithole they were and deserve to be.


Russia can F off too.


Not
https://www.cnn.com

Well if you raise a dissenting opinion in Russia- they throw you out a window.  I guess that’s better than China where you just disappear. 


Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3543 on: May 06, 2020, 01:21:27 PM »
Good take on multiple models: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

A key aspect is basically all of the models assume continued social distancing practices, and all are predicting a much lower average death rate than what we're seeing now between now and May 30, the end of their predictions. The midpoint projections range between 93K by May 30 and 111K by May 30.

That means that given ~25 days between now and then, and current deaths at ~72K, a range of ~840 average daily deaths on the low midpoint and ~1560 average daily deaths for the high midpoint. 

Right now the worldometers has implemented a 7-day moving average curve on their web site which peaked on Apr 20 at 2208 deaths/day and has slowly declined, with May 4 showing 1858 deaths/day. This will be of course a lagging measure of actual death rate with a 7-day lag, but due to weekly and daily variation you really need some smoothing.

Given that states are starting to open up (whether officially in some cases or by people simply flouting restrictions or increasing movement in places like CA), I suspect that we're not going to see a sharp decline during the month of May, and actual deaths by May 30 will be >111K. That's my prediction.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3544 on: May 06, 2020, 01:22:48 PM »
Just back from a LONG walk (the weather is perfect).  We walked into town and then through a residential area and the park.  Most restaurants remain closed, about half do take out.  The big construction sites are going flat out.  There are more houses for sale than usual in the residential area, they used to be for sale and then sold in a week.  It's a prime area.  Quite a few houses are being completely overhauled there also, a few are being demolished to build something new.  The houses date from 1920.  The park was about typically busy, a lot of people with masks, it's easy to spread apart from everyone.

Traffic on the side streets remains  very low.  We walked across Peachtree St., the main drag, and for half a minute there were no cars visible in either direction.  At least the construction workers are getting paid.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3545 on: May 06, 2020, 01:46:26 PM »
Another interesting chart... 



As with most things, there are problems with this kind of analysis. For public policy purposes, "USA" is probably too big of a jurisdiction, but even "USA minus New York" is still too big.

But it highlights that the decline in the giant outlier area (NY) is now making it look like the US is in general getting a handle on the deaths... But the rest of the country is seeing no decline at all. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3546 on: May 06, 2020, 02:03:18 PM »
Another interesting chart...



As with most things, there are problems with this kind of analysis. For public policy purposes, "USA" is probably too big of a jurisdiction, but even "USA minus New York" is still too big.

But it highlights that the decline in the giant outlier area (NY) is now making it look like the US is in general getting a handle on the deaths... But the rest of the country is seeing no decline at all.

But we're not seeing exponential increase, either, which was the risk we were attempting to mitigate.  It has, for the most part, worked.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3547 on: May 06, 2020, 05:00:08 PM »
One third of total deaths are registered in NY, and they may be under counting there by a factor of 2-3.

NJ and CT are second and third.  That is basically half of the death toll in the country thus far.  I see 1,743 today at the moment with 232, 269, 85 from those states along.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3548 on: May 06, 2020, 05:22:38 PM »
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/06/850454989/eerie-emptiness-of-ers-worries-doctors-where-are-the-heart-attacks-and-strokes

As the pandemic took hold, the number of patients showing up at hospitals with serious cardiovascular emergencies such as strokes and heart attacks has shrunk dramatically.

Across the country, doctors call the drop-off staggering, unlike anything they've seen. And they worry a new wave of patients is headed their way — people who have delayed care and will be sicker and more injured when they finally arrive in emergency rooms.



Hawkinole

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3549 on: May 07, 2020, 02:12:45 AM »
Good take on multiple models: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/

A key aspect is basically all of the models assume continued social distancing practices, and all are predicting a much lower average death rate than what we're seeing now between now and May 30, the end of their predictions. The midpoint projections range between 93K by May 30 and 111K by May 30.

That means that given ~25 days between now and then, and current deaths at ~72K, a range of ~840 average daily deaths on the low midpoint and ~1560 average daily deaths for the high midpoint.

Right now the worldometers has implemented a 7-day moving average curve on their web site which peaked on Apr 20 at 2208 deaths/day and has slowly declined, with May 4 showing 1858 deaths/day. This will be of course a lagging measure of actual death rate with a 7-day lag, but due to weekly and daily variation you really need some smoothing.

Given that states are starting to open up (whether officially in some cases or by people simply flouting restrictions or increasing movement in places like CA), I suspect that we're not going to see a sharp decline during the month of May, and actual deaths by May 30 will be >111K. That's my prediction.
How did we blow by 61,000 by Aug 1, by circa May 1?

Hawkinole

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3550 on: May 07, 2020, 02:26:00 AM »
I want to make a positive comment. I live in a town of 5,000 in a red county, Iowa. The Chinese restaurant across the street from my office was closed to dine-in March 17 by governor's proclamation. For a few days they did carry out. Then they closed circa March 20 to all business on their own. They had an extensive carry out business before the pandemic.

They reopened today. We are in a county where dine-in is allowed as of Friday May 1, but they reopened May 6 to carry out only. At Noon I glanced across the street. There was a line of people waiting for carry-outs to the end of the block, mostly 6 feet apart, and it was that way throughout the noon hour. Our community supported our neighbors. 

These folks operating the restaurant were ethnic Chinese growing up in Vietnam, and then immigrated to California, and about 20-years ago dispersed here to Iowa.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3551 on: May 07, 2020, 08:19:49 AM »
That's a great story. Thanks.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3552 on: May 07, 2020, 09:32:59 AM »
Any of you watching John Krasinski's "Some Good News" on youtube?  It's just a 15 minute blurb, weekly, where he talks about the GOOD things that are going on around the world.  I like to watch it with the wife and kids, it has become "family movie time" since we've already watched pretty much every movie ever made.  Twice.

Oh and bonus, he's married to Emily Blunt and she makes appearances from time to time.  So that's nice.

Kris60

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3553 on: May 07, 2020, 10:03:54 AM »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgDQwJTiUc&feature=share

I stumbled across this. I’m not endorsing it as the gospel or anything but just thought it was interesting.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3554 on: May 07, 2020, 10:13:31 AM »
It isn't interesting, it's replete with errors and partial truths and outright lies.

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3555 on: May 07, 2020, 10:17:25 AM »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgDQwJTiUc&feature=share

I stumbled across this. I’m not endorsing it as the gospel or anything but just thought it was interesting.
The online reading seems to point to suggestions this women is a bit of a quack?

 

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