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Topic: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition

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847badgerfan

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #560 on: December 05, 2023, 09:10:41 AM »
Vegas just wants balance.
How many times have we seen a casino go out of business?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #561 on: December 05, 2023, 09:12:52 AM »
Only if Trump owns it. 

MrNubbz

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #562 on: December 05, 2023, 09:15:06 AM »
Boys bringing their "A" Game
Don't go to bed with any woman crazier than you. - Frank Zappa

847badgerfan

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #563 on: December 05, 2023, 09:26:58 AM »
Only if Trump owns it.
Does he still own any? Honestly do not follow. I'm pretty sure one he had in NJ is gone now.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

SuperMario

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #564 on: December 05, 2023, 09:30:30 AM »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=sLXYjwogLhM&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2F&embeds_referring_origin=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com&source_ve_path=MjgyNDAsMzY4NDIsMjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo


I am sure Our Michigan friends here won’t like me posting this.

This is a rant- but he raises a great point.  Not about UM- but about our CFB media and the sport itself.  A must 5 minute listen. 
This is absolute trash. Why even post this? So Michigan fans can’t be annoyed that FSU seems to have gotten a raw deal?

you’re right, it’s not liked that it’s posted here. Speaking of dead horses.

nwms

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #565 on: December 05, 2023, 09:36:19 AM »
obviously they would rather play the team w/o a qb.  who wouldn't.

utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #566 on: December 05, 2023, 10:19:08 AM »
I don't know. I'm not a player so obviously can't speak from that perspective, but as a fan I'd rather see my favorite team take on all comers at their full strength, even if that diminishes the odds of a win.  


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #567 on: December 05, 2023, 10:27:52 AM »
You're smarter than this.
Look at what the committee did. 
Week 13:  FSU vs FCS Directional Tech.....Jordan Travis is hurt badly, out for the year. So there's some uncertainty there.  FSU blows out the FCS team.  FSU was ranked 4th, but drops down to 5th.  5th out of the 5 undefeated P5 teams left.
.
Week 14:  Rivalry Weekend!  The Game!  OSU loses to UM and drops.  FSU, with their backup QB, beats Florida.  The offense looks bad.  But with OSU losing, FSU moves up.  The committee gave FSU the benefit of the doubt here. Bad offensive showing vs a bad defense, but they got it done, and as they're prone to do, just shuffling up the zero-loss teams ahead of the 1-loss teams.
What we all may not have known here is that the committee was focusing on FSU, especially the offense, and wanted to give them the opportunity to play their way into maintaining their ranking (4th, once again). 
Just look like a playoff team vs UL.  Show that the offense is functional and not a dumpster fire.  Earn you way in.  Here's your chance.
.
Week 15:  FSU scores one TD.  Their defense plays with its hair on fire, but FSU is half a team.  They were given the benefit of the doubt the week before, but they've shown the offense is a shell of its former self. 
RB Benson could have taken over, but didn't.
WR Coleman could have stepped up his game, but didn't.
The only plus was the backup RB hitting one long run. 
.
Two teams behind FSU were also being watched closely.  One played the #1 team and the other played a lower-ranked team.  Oklahoma State was ranked even below Louisville.  Alabama beat #1 and Texas beat Okie State, scoring more than 1 TD.  They scored 7 TDs.  Played their way into the playoff. 
So Bama beat the #1 team and Texas drubbed the lower-ranked team, playing well on both sides of the ball.
.
Is it unfortunate that FSU lost its QB?  Yes.
Would it have immensely helped if someone stepped up on offense?  Yes.
Is any of this "fair"?  No.
Is it some sort of bomb shelter cash handshake conspiracy?  No.
.
Any of the 4 teams in the playoff could win it. 
You could not say that with FSU included.  FSU had the chance to play their way in, and they fell short. No, their backup QB isn't appreciably better than the 3rd stringer.  No, a zero in the loss column isn't a "get into the playoff free" card. 
.
I am truly baffled that the consensus seems to be that FSU being left out is some sort of crime against everything that is holy and good in the world.
Oh, and this:

You can also look at it differently. 

Week 14: FSU is against an outmatched opponent. They have a talented backup QB but who has not been running with the 1's in practice except for this week. They know they can trust their defense and move to a more vanilla offensive scheme to secure the win, knowing that with a little more experience, they can open it up. 

Week 15: FSU just lost their second string QB, but they know they're again against an outmatched (but less so) opponent. The third-string QB hasn't even been running with the 2's for more than a week, and now gets one week to run with the 1's. So let's again play conservatively to get the W and try to get out of here with 3 weeks of practice (and Wodemaker returning as it was a concussion, not a season-ender) to get Wodemaker up to speed with the 1's. 

Kinda like the 2nd half of the UM/PSU game. "Oh, UM couldn't throw the ball!" No, they chose not to, because they didn't think they needed to throw the ball to get the W. 

These kinds of things happen. FSU doesn't recruit scrubs. Chances are they wanted Wodemaker on the roster for a reason. But if they had tried to go all-out with a full offensive gameplan against a lesser opponent, when they didn't need it, and then a few offensive miscues led to giving the opponent good field position or a defensive score? Now they've got an L on the record. Instead, play conservatively and trust your defense to strangle your opponent.

Because a W by 1 point vs a W by 20 points looks like the same thing on your record... Unless you're not judged on your record, and it's all a big f%&#^@g beauty pageant. 

Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #568 on: December 05, 2023, 10:36:11 AM »
I figure when Vegas sets the initial line, they consider who is involved, as well as who their metrics predict will win by X.  If say ND is involved, they know ND fans are big betters on their team, so they shade the line, a point or so, to account for that.  Maybe more.  And if the money piles up on one side or the other, they shade the line to adjust.  Basically, they win no matter what, if the line is such that the bets are balanced or close to it.

There is zero reason for Vegas to "bet" when they have a sure thing on every contest and every event.  Would you rather bet with your money or take a sure thing?

utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #569 on: December 05, 2023, 10:42:43 AM »
 Unless you're not judged on your record, and it's all a big f%&#^@g beauty pageant.
I don't disagree with anything you're saying,  but the D1-A/FBS college football postseason has ALWAYS been a big effing beauty pageant.  This year is no different than all the others.




medinabuckeye1

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #570 on: December 05, 2023, 10:45:00 AM »
I figure when Vegas sets the initial line, they consider who is involved, as well as who their metrics predict will win by X.  If say ND is involved, they know ND fans are big betters on their team, so they shade the line, a point or so, to account for that.  Maybe more.  And if the money piles up on one side or the other, they shade the line to adjust.  Basically, they win no matter what, if the line is such that the bets are balanced or close to it.

There is zero reason for Vegas to "bet" when they have a sure thing on every contest and every event.  Would you rather bet with your money or take a sure thing?
I have my doubts about the idea of teams like Notre Dame that have lots of fans (my team would be on this list as well) getting shifted lines to balance the money.  I don't doubt that Vegas *would* do that if they needed to in order to balance the money but if that were true then we would expect all of the teams with large fanbases to consistently underperform to the spread.  That would create a fairly obvious money-making opportunity.  Simply bet against the big fanbase teams every week and you should make money, no?  My thinking is that someone would figure that out and do it and that would cause the lines to move back to appropriate.  

Note, I'm not arguing with you per-se.  I've heard this theory lots of times in the past from lots of different people so this isn't directed at you.  Also, I don't mean this to be argumentative.  I mean it as a genuine question:  Am I missing something?  If "Vegas" actually does shift their lines to make the big-fanbase teams bigger favorites couldn't I make money by consistently betting against the big-fanbase teams?  

Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #571 on: December 05, 2023, 10:52:09 AM »
I've thought about that.  Vegas obvious knows from experience IF soe fan base comes in heavy in their team.  I don't know if this happens in real life, but Vegas would, and they'd adjust as needed.  Maybe the betting public is so large the fanbased is irrelevant, I don't know.

I have one theory about betting on bowl games, always take the dog and points.  I think they attract some fans who bet on them thinking "Well, there is no way FSU beats UGA" not realizing the line already adjusted for that, and then UGA shows up disinterested and absent some key players and doesn't cover.  I think that happens more often in bowl games than regular season games.

utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #572 on: December 05, 2023, 11:00:07 AM »
Yeah, the casino oddsmakers have already factored in their expectations for fan base money, when they set the initial lines.  I'm certain that some fan bases bet more "enthusiastically" and I'm certain that the casinos account for it.

If they don't, then they get into the case of a shifting line, which becomes a source of risk exposure if they can't shift the line fast enough.  No casino wants risk exposure.  So they factor in everything they can, into setting the initial line, to keep the money even.


Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #573 on: December 05, 2023, 11:09:12 AM »
I'd guess they know a lot of factors that influence betting lines, and adjust accordingly.  I find it interesting how spreads can vary a point or so between houses.  They all put out nearly the same initial lines.  And the lines rarely move much from there, a couple points is an extreme case (barring injury news).

I assume they employ some algorithm or other, I don't know how that works preseason, and then a human may tickle it.

 

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