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If Georgia and Bama win out, they both get in no matter who wins the SECCG. 

As I see it the following teams control their own destiny:

• #1 Georgia:  If the Dawgs win out and finish 13-0 they are obviously in.  They would also definitely be in as 12-1 SEC Champions and probably also as 12-1 non-Champions.  
• #2 Bama:  12-1 SEC Champs gets them in.  
• #7 Michigan State:  12-1 B1G Champs gets them in because they'd leap-frog M, Cincy, tOSU, and Oregon while possibly getting passed by Oklahoma.  
• #8 Oklahoma:  The sooners are all the way down at #8 because they've had multiple unimpressive wins but their next three games are @#13 Baylor, vs 6-3 ISU, @#10 OkSU and after that they'd get another highly ranked opponent in the B12CG.  If they get to 13-0, they are in.  

What the others need:

• #3 Oregon:  They need to win out and hope that either tOSU or a team with at least two losses wins the B1G.  Oregon has two major weaknesses relative to the other contenders.  One is that their loss is BAD.  The other is that they are REALLY light on quality wins.  They can't afford for their signature win to take many hits.  Also, a 12-1 P12 Champion Oregon would almost certainly be behind any 12-1 B1G Champion not named Ohio State (M or MSU) but they might get in ahead of a 12-1 B1G Champion Ohio State on the strength of the H2H win.  Even there it is no guarantee because tOSU's loss is obviously VASTLY better and while Oregon's signature win would obviously be better than anything Ohio State could point to, a 12-1 Ohio State would have a LOT more volume of quality wins.  
• #4 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes need a loss by either Oklahoma or Oregon.  Barring that they could find themselves left out behind Georgia, Bama (if both finish 12-1), Oregon, and Oklahoma.  It would be a close and controversial decision between Oregon and Ohio State for the #4 spot.  The usual argument between the "H2H uber alles" faction and the "13 games are 13 data-points" factions.  If you look at H2H as irrebuttable then obviously Oregon goes.  If you look at the seasons as a whole, a 12-1 tOSU is plainly better than a 12-1 Oregon.  
• #5 Cincy:  Chaos.  The Bearcats schedule is complete crap and to make it worse they haven't even consistently dominated their weak opponents.  In the last three weeks they have one-score wins over sub .500 Navy and Tulsa and they only led a terrible (1-8) Tulane team by two points at halftime.  This clearly does not look like the resume of a legitimate contender.  Obviously finishing strong would help but it will not be enough.  They'll also need a slew of losses because they obviously will not be taken ahead of any undefeated or 1-loss P5 Champs (maybe Wake, I doubt it) and they might not even get in over some potential 2-loss P5 Champs.  
• #6 Michigan:  IMHO, the Wolverines control their own destiny IF MSU loses a game.  They would be VERY unlikely to get in as an 11-1 non-Champion but they'd be a lock as a 12-1 B1G Champion because that resume would be better than Oregon's so worst case scenario they'd be #4 behind the two SEC teams and Oklahoma.  
• #9 Notre Dame:  The Cincinnati loss hurts them every which way.  As long as Cincy remains undefeated it is unlikely that the Irish could get in ahead of them so they REALLY need Cincy to lose and maybe twice.  At the same time, Cincy can't lose to a quality opponent so any additional losses by Cincy would make Notre Dame's loss to them look bad in comparison to other contenders such as Bama, tOSU, M.  They also lack a "signature" win so it would REALLY help them if Wisconsin, Purdue, and UNC all finish strong.  
• #10 OkSU:  The Cowboys aren't THAT far out.  Winning out would probably require beating #8 Oklahoma twice.  That would get them ahead of ND, Oklahoma, and two of the three B1G teams in front of them but they still could end up arguing with Oregon over who should be #4 behind the two SEC teams and the B1G Champion.  
• #11 aTm:  The Aggies have no plausible shot as a 2-loss non-Champion so they need to win out and they need Bama to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn, then they need to take down #1 Georgia in the SECCG.  If all of that happened they'd be an 11-2 SEC Champion owning two of the best wins of the season (Bama, UGA).  The only problem is that they'd still be carrying those two losses to middling SEC teams (6-3 Arkansas and 5-4 MsSt).  They'd end up with better wins and worse losses than their contenders and who knows how that would turn out.  My hunch is that they'd get in but they'd definitely be sweating out the selection.  
• #12 Wake:  Chaos.  They are in a similar situation to Cincy.  

IMHO nobody outside the current top-12 has a plausible shot.  In theory it could happen but it would require a slew of unlikely upsets.  

Bama with 2 losses drops out if Oregon, Ohio St, and Oklahomo win out

Nah, they drop down to 4. 

The messaging is obvious. 

Nah, they drop down to 4.

The messaging is obvious.

Yeah, you gotta read between the lines.  The Illuminati and like such as.

Only time will tell, I suppose. 

But let's not behave as though it would be far fetched to only drop Bama to 4 if they win out and then lose a close SECCG. 

Might only drop down to 3, in order to avoid a semifinal rematch. 

For better or worse the precedent set by the committee is that the #1 criteria is "number of losses".  The only exceptions have been cases in which SoS was an EXTREME outlier.  

Bama's SoS simply wouldn't be an extreme outlier if it would even be #1.  

Take the example implied by @FearlessF :

• Georgia wins out, finishes 13-0 and SEC Champs.  
• Bama wins their other games, finishes 11-2 SECCG loser.  
• Ohio State wins out, finishes 12-1 and B1G Champs.  
• Oklahoma wins out, finishes 13-0 and B12 Champs.  
• Oregon wins out, finishes 12-1 and P12 Champs.  
• For the sake of this discussion assume that Wake does NOT win out such that the ACC produces a Champion with at least two losses and no serious argument.  

I think the first two are obvious.  Georgia is the #1 and Oklahoma is the #2.  They would both be undefeated P5 Champions.  Oklahoma is down in the rankings right now but that is because they've struggled a bit against weaker opponents and because their schedule is seriously back-loaded with their last three regular season games being against the other three B12 contenders.  If they get through that AND the B12CG without a loss, they'll easily be in at 13-0.  

That leaves:

• 12-1 B1G Champion Ohio State:  Best wins are #6 Michigan, #7 Michigan State, #19 Purdue, and (probably) #18 Wisconsin.  The loss is a respectable one-score loss to #3 Oregon.  
• 12-1 Pac Champion Oregon:  Best win is #4 Ohio State followed by #24 Utah (probably twice).  Everybody's victims would be expected to drop for losing to them but Oregon is the only one playing theirs twice and thus degrading their own second-best win dramatically.  After Utah there isn't much and the loss is to a terrible Stanford team (currently 3-6).  
• 11-2 non-Champion Bama:  Best wins are #15 Ole Miss, #25 Arkansas, and #17 Auburn.  Losses are a close loss to #11 aTm and (per Fearless' example), a close loss to #1 Georgia.  

Both Ohio State and Oregon have a better win than Bama's best (#6 Michigan and #7 MSU for tOSU, #4 tOSU for Oregon).  Ohio State's loss is also better than Bama's loss to aTm (#3>#11).  Additionally, Ohio State has four wins over ranked teams to Bama's three and Ohio State is a P5 Champ where Bama isn't.  This really isn't a close call.  

Oregon's H2H win over Ohio State is the big monkey-wrench.  If you ignored the names (and consequently the H2H) Ohio State would be the obvious choice for #3 and then it would be between Bama and Oregon for #4.  That simply comes down to the rather typical dispute between Championships vs losses vs SoS.  Oregon has less losses and a Championship but they played a weaker schedule.  


It would make no sense to put Bama behind Oregon and ahead of Ohio State so if you feel that Oregon HAS to go ahead of Ohio State due to H2H you are left with two choices:
Either:

• #3 Oregon, plays Oklahoma in a CFP semi-final
• #4 Ohio State, plays Georgia in a CFP semi-final
• #5 Bama, out.  

Or:

• #3 Bama, plays Oklahoma in a CFP semi-final
• #4 Oregon, plays Georgia in a CFP semi-final
• #5 Ohio State, out.  

The easiest thing to do is to exclude Bama on the basis that they have two losses and aren't a P5 Champion.  I do think that in this case the committee would put Ohio State ahead of Oregon simply because they'd want UGA and tOSU on opposite sides of the bracket for a host of reasons.