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Topic: Second CFP Rankings

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FearlessF

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2021, 04:51:53 PM »
I think they should seed the teams correctly and let the rematches begin

if Georgia beats Bama. and has the most impressive resume by quite a bit, why shouldn't the Dawgs get the perceived 4th seed?

Cincy wants an invite to the big boy table, give 'em a shot at the Dawgs
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utee94

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2021, 10:48:29 AM »
Taken from another message board I frequent, current top 8 in the CFP rankings:


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MrNubbz

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2021, 10:56:23 AM »
Sooners win out they'd have to be in
« Last Edit: November 11, 2021, 11:02:24 AM by MrNubbz »
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FearlessF

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2021, 11:04:36 AM »
sooners sched will get a bump this week playing at 7-2 Baylor, they finish at 8-1 Okie St.

have the birds from Ames at 6-3 in between those games

then of course, a rematch with one of the 3 in the con champ game
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utee94

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2021, 11:04:39 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on November 11, 2021, 10:56:23 AM
Sooners win out they'd have to be in
For sure.  An undefeated Sooner team is always going to be in.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2021, 12:05:03 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 11, 2021, 11:04:36 AM
sooners sched will get a bump this week playing at 7-2 Baylor, they finish at 8-1 Okie St.

have the birds from Ames at 6-3 in between those games

then of course, a rematch with one of the 3 in the con champ game
No way they beat OSU2 two weeks in a row. 
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utee94

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2021, 12:08:27 PM »
They always beat Oklahoma State.  They'd be in more danger if it's one of the other teams.

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FearlessF

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2021, 12:25:57 PM »
the Cyclones are dangerous to Sooners
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2021, 12:32:45 PM »
It is very difficult to beat the same team in back to back weeks. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2021, 04:22:47 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 11, 2021, 12:32:45 PM
It is very difficult to beat the same team in back to back weeks.
But how much of that is such a situation only occurring between pretty evenly-matched teams?  An Ohio State-type team never plays an Eastern Michigan two weeks in a row.

Simple statistics would tell us evenly-matched teams playing twice in a row would most often yield a win for each.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #24 on: November 11, 2021, 05:16:02 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2021, 04:22:47 PM
Simple statistics would tell us evenly-matched teams playing twice in a row would most often yield a win for each.

A single toss of a coin is an event (also called a trial) that is not connected to or influenced by other events. When a coin is tossed twice, the coin has no memory of whether it came up heads or tails the first time, so the second toss of the coin is independent. The probability of heads on the first toss is 50%, just as it is on all subsequent tosses of the coin.
The two outcomes of the toss of a coin are heads or tails. For any individual toss of the coin, the outcome will be either heads or tails. The two outcomes (heads or tails) are therefore mututally exclusive; if the coin comes up heads on a single toss, it cannot come up tails on the same toss.
There are two useful rules for calculating the probability of events more complicated than a single coin toss.
The first is the Product Rule. This states that the probability of the occurrence of two independent events is the product of their individual probabilities. The probability of getting two heads on two coin tosses is 0.5 x 0.5 or 0.25.


The probability in the second match would also be 50-50 in theory, unaffected by the initial outcome.  This isn't true in reality of course.  But in theory, there are four possible outcomes, W/W for either team half the time and W/L or L/W half the time.  So, half the time one team wins both games.  Half is a split.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #25 on: November 11, 2021, 05:59:26 PM »
I can't even tell if you're agreeing with me or not.  But I'll quote this part:
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 11, 2021, 05:16:02 PM
But in theory, there are four possible outcomes, W/W for either team half the time and W/L or L/W half the time.  So, half the time one team wins both games.  Half is a split.

You've got it 2-0 for a team and 1 win for each as 50/50 chance here.
Except that when we play a game, it's ideally designed for the better team to win much of the time.  So while the old adage "it's hard to beat the same team twice" is probably not bourn out by the facts, it's also undercut that as long as the better team wins more than half the time (given a well-designed game), "a team" should win both games because its better.

Anyway, football games obviously aren't coin flips and despite what 847 insists, peripheral ship matters and comes into play.  So with 2 equal teams, I'd expect each to win half the time, whether it's 100 games or 2 (as in adjustments the losing team can make > the winning team guessing what adjustments the losing team will do).

And now I can't tell if I've supported your post or resisted it.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #26 on: November 11, 2021, 08:07:37 PM »
Is it odd that OU is penalized for close games vs a weak schedule and Cincinnati maybe isn't?  Or is the win over ND the difference there?  
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FearlessF

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Re: Second CFP Rankings
« Reply #27 on: November 11, 2021, 08:16:36 PM »
sooners have their 3 toughest games head of them

just let the season play out

only the final ranking matters

they should probably wait 2 or 3 weeks longer before releasing their rankings
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