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Topic: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend

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FearlessF

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #420 on: December 04, 2022, 09:04:26 AM »
well, they always do that

it's that when a couple star players opt out on the same day, a landslide of bets can come in before the adjustment
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

SuperMario

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #421 on: December 04, 2022, 09:06:54 AM »
Statistically, teams usually beat another team twice if they play, about 70% of the time.  I don't think it's inherently tougher, but a competitive team obviously has a shot at winning.
Wow very interesting. I’m surprised it’s that high. That being said, 30% of the time you have a split on the year and people are supposed to consider the team that won 2nd the better team?

I would say it’s one thing if the matchup is early in the year and the second one is late, but imagine if Michigan was 1, Purdue 2 and both undefeated going into last night, Michigan loses, but they face in the national championship and Michigan wins. I would just hate that scenario.

Cincydawg

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #422 on: December 04, 2022, 09:10:16 AM »
Just how hard is it to beat the same team twice in one season: An analysis : CFB (reddit.com)

That old adage “it’s hard to beat the same team twice” (247sports.com)

Pac-12 Championship: How tough is beating same team twice | Opinion - Deseret News

Some more data on this.

Contrary to popular belief, people don’t use merely 10% of their brains (except congressmen), Vikings didn’t wear horns on their helmets, you won’t drown or cramp just because you went swimming right after eating, George Washington didn’t have wooden teeth and, oh, yeah, it isn’t difficult for a football team to beat the same opponent twice in the same season.

How many times have we heard the last one?
It’s hard to beat the same team twice.
File that one away with: they are better than their record indicates and you have to establish the running game.


FearlessF

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #423 on: December 04, 2022, 09:15:35 AM »
May be an image of 2 people and text that says 'When you lead Michigan to its first 13-win season in program history M'
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #424 on: December 04, 2022, 09:16:01 AM »
Statistically, teams usually beat another team twice if they play, about 70% of the time.  I don't think it's inherently tougher, but a competitive team obviously has a shot at winning.
But I think there's another way to look at this.

For the sake of discussion, I'm going to assume that the "better" team wins the first game.  But if that's the case, then the "inferior" team actually has a surprisingly high 30% chance of winning the second game, when they're technically not supposed to.

From a conference perspective, that's fairly alarming, because the second game is occurring in the CCG and you're getting a 30% error rate in that game. That's exactly what most of us are saying happened in the B12 CCG.  I think most people believe TCU is better than KSU.  So KSU just became part of that 30% error.

This time it might or might not knock TCU out of the CFP, but the fact that this risk exists at all, is a danger to a conference like the B12.

FearlessF

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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MrNubbz

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #426 on: December 04, 2022, 09:28:54 AM »
I was surfing some different forums and almost all said the same thing get Saban's whiny grecian formula face off their TVs

-ugh I like Nick OK, but get this fucker and his 2 losses off my TV
-Damn, Saban working the old guy #5 hair dye. Looks real natural…
-Someone needs to tell Saban that whiney begging is not a good look.
-Lol listen to that fuckhead
-It would almost be worth it for them to get in as the 4 seed and see Georgia beat them by 6 touchdowns 
-Are they going to give all the other borderline teams a chance to make their case in prime time? WTF
-I love Saban's reasoning of Bama should be in because they would be favored over the other teams. Yeah, you were a heavy favorite against both Tennessee and LSU. You lost to both.
-What a pathetic loser. You played Austin-Peay two weeks ago. Get off my screen.
-Fox is so stupid giving the leader of an all ESPN property time to whine during the halftime CCG of a property they own most of
-Saban doing the "all these teams ahead of us lost this week, we should be moved up because of that" funny.... its conf championship week, they lost because they were presumably playing against better competition than Austin Fucking Peay.

“Always carry a flask of whiskey in case of snakebite and furthermore always carry a small snake.” W.C. Fields

utee94

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #427 on: December 04, 2022, 09:31:42 AM »
^^^^

All valid criticisms.  Which is why it's REALLY going to bother a lot of people when the committee puts Alabama into the CFP anyway. :)


MrNubbz

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #428 on: December 04, 2022, 09:37:56 AM »
The Horror,I agree with this guy
"It would almost be worth it for them to get in as the 4 seed and see Georgia beat them by 6 touchdowns."

Of course they might woodshed the Buckeyes by 7 TDs
“Always carry a flask of whiskey in case of snakebite and furthermore always carry a small snake.” W.C. Fields

Cincydawg

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #429 on: December 04, 2022, 09:41:10 AM »
In competitive games, the "better" team might win 60% of the time.  If so, their odds of winning twice is only 36%, but their odds of winning the second game after the first would be 60%.

Rematches are really not remarkably hard to win again.

Cincydawg

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #430 on: December 04, 2022, 09:42:01 AM »
All valid criticisms.  Which is why it's REALLY going to bother a lot of people when the committee puts Alabama into the CFP anyway. :)
I really doubt this happens.  It's Ohio State and TCU I'm pretty sure.  The committee has no special love for Bama.

utee94

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #431 on: December 04, 2022, 09:43:58 AM »
I really doubt this happens.  It's Ohio State and TCU I'm pretty sure.  The committee has no special love for Bama.
We'll see in a few short hours, I believe.

I'd be pleasantly surprised by the committee, if they can resist the temptation to include Alabama. 

Cincydawg

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #432 on: December 04, 2022, 09:49:19 AM »
What would be the motivation by the committee members to include Alabama?  Saban's "speech"?

I doubt they care, at all, about Alabama.  

FearlessF

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Re: S.O.C. Conference Championship Weekend
« Reply #433 on: December 04, 2022, 09:58:57 AM »
motivation by the folks that select and pay the committee

the networks

let's see, ratings...... Bama or TCU?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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