Teams with 1st Loss Week 3:
Wyoming
Western Kentucky
Michigan State
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Kansas State
Minnesota
Georgia Southern
Louisiana-Monroe
Cincinnati
Oklahoma State
Arkansas
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
10: Nine conference champs (all except the MAC) and Notre Dame
-We lost the possibility of two undefeated from the Sun Belt. James Madison is not eligible for Sun Belt Championship so could have had two before. Now only remaining undefeated teams in the Sun Belt are on their schedule.
Week 3 Thoughts:
-I added the winless column this week. We start with 7 remaining members. Only one of them is from a power 5 conference (Virginia). The Mountain West is the only conference with two (Colorado State and Nevada). Most likely all these teams get a win before the end of the season, although we occasionally end up with a winless team or two.
-These are the kind of weeks that will lose a little luster to me next year. I get that we might get greater excitement for people at the end of the season as more teams are playing for playoff spots in late November, but the cost of that for me is losing some excitement over weeks like this. I was glued to the end of the Boston College-Florida State game as the implications were very high. If Boston College had pulled off that upset, the ACC's playoff bowl chances, in my view, would probably drop by something like half. Meanwhile, Georgia losing at halftime to South Carolina could have meant big things. A loss there would mean Georgia couldn't go to the SEC Championship undefeated (and losing that as their only loss is the SEC's best chance at two teams in).
-Most our top team held, but we sure had some games this week.
-As far as playoff odds between the conferences, I don't think a lot changed this week. If one of those games going late had broken another way, a lot more would have, but all will be forgiven to the winners if they keep winning. The Big 12 probably saw the biggest drop in their odds with losing a decently ranked Kansas State (although the BYU win was a nice pickup), but Texas and Oklahoma remain unbeaten (even if the conference would rather see anyone else win it).
-In the SEC, Florida beating Tennessee, to me establishes that Florida will probably be the top remaining competitor to Georgia in the east. Georgia did look beatable this week for a half vs. South Carolina (that switched in the 2nd half though).
-The other happy party to Florida winning was probably Utah and the PAC-12. That win looks better now and the PAC-12 is looking very strong for a playoff spot for the first time in years (two if absolutely everything brakes right).
-Minnesota lost to North Carolina. This is relevant for both conferences. For the ACC, that keeps North Carolina as another ranked game. For the Big Ten, that leaves Iowa alone as an undefeated in the west. Unless Iowa wins out, the Big Ten really does not want an upset in the Big Ten Championship.
-What are the best scenarios after this week for a conference getting in two? So far we have seen the Big Ten do it once and the SEC a few times. The best recipe for it seems to be to have two of the other power conferences with 2 loss champions (effectively eliminating them as things tend to go), and have a huge stand out non-champ with a lot of talent who only lost a close game against the conference champ. If any conference wants to get two in this year, they probably need to hope for something similar. In that light, the SEC's best chance it to have Georgia as the 2nd team in my view with a loss to Florida (who wins out) or in the SEC Championship to an undefeated 1-loss team. In the Big Ten, you could have Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State do it, but Ohio State would definitely have the easiest time of it given they would have a win over one of the others and Notre Dame in this scenario. In the Big 12, your best scenario is probably something like one of Texas or Oklahoma winning the first game and then losing to the other in a rematch in the conference championship game (Texas would probably be the stronger non-champ because of the Alabama win). In the PAC-12, you currently have 8 undefeated. You want that going down to 2 who look overwhelmingly better. The strongest ones would probably be USC, Utah, and Oregon. Those three all play each other, so you probably want each of their losses to only be to the other in a split series. In the ACC, Florida State probably needs to dominate and then lose a close one to someone undefeated in the ACC Championship,
-Group of 5 NY6 Bowl Race: We are down to 7 undefeated teams in Group of 5 conferences. Wyoming and South Florida were going for monster wins this week, but couldn't pull them off. Wyoming might still be one to watch (they have a win over Texas Tech still). Regardless, my money is on a 1 or maybe 2 loss team taking the spot this year.
-The Sun Belt got a fairly good victory with South Alabama very convincingly beating Oklahoma State. South Alabama did lose to Tulane though (whom remains a large contender to go back to the NY6 this year).
-As we get closer to conference play, each of the Group of 5 conferences, needs a standout team or two to emerge. The conferences don't want everyone else to be doormats, but they also can't afford to beat up on each other much.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-By my count, we have 8 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Rutgers at Undefeated Michigan: Rutgers has started out pretty decently, but is a 24 point underdog here. Michigan is easily undefeated, but didn't exactly have a challenging non-conference schedule. This game could reveal a lot about both teams.
Undefeated Florida State at 1-loss Clemson: Despite Clemson's loss at Duke, this might be the game the Seminoles are least favored in this year. They struggled nightly vs. Boston College last week and will need to be up for this game. The ACC stands much better chance at the playoff with Florida State staying unbeaten. On the flip side, a loss here would be a 2nd conference loss for Clemson and they would not be guaranteed to get into the ACC Championship by winning out.
Undefeated Oklahoma at 1-loss Cincinnati: The Bearcats lost to rival Miami (OH) for the first time in a long time last week, but dominated statically and this game, their first Big 12 game, has been circled a long time. I don't lean to this being close, but it wouldn't shock me being closer than first brush suggests.
Undefeated Colorado at Undefeated Oregon: Dion Sanders had a huge upset for week 1. He will need that again to win this game.
Undefeated UCLA at Undefeated Utah: The defending PAC-12 champs are only a 4.5 point favorite in this game to my surprise. That win over Florida can pay dividends, which is why the conference would probably rather see the Utes win.
Undefeated Ole Miss at 1-loss Alabama and Undefeated Auburn at 1-Loss Texas A&M: The road teams are the last two undefeated in the SEC West and both are both are underdogs.
Undefeated BYU at Undefeated Kansas: BYU upset Arkansas last week and now has their first Big 12 conference game. The Jawhawks have started the year strong and are looking to establish themselves as more of a football power in the new Big 12. They are decently favored.
Undefeated Oregon State at Undefeated Washington State: The last two non-defectors from the PAC-12. Both are having great starts and both would love to make this a year to remember as everyone else leaves.
Winless Colorado State at Middle Tennessee: Colorado is only a 2 point underdog as they go for their first win. They are coming off a disappoint ending vs. rival Colorado though.
Undefeated Ohio State at Undefeated Notre Dame: The Buckeyes are a few point favorites. Lose this, and they cannot afford any Big Ten losses (and that might not still be enough). Notre Dame finished 11-1 two years ago (with a loss to an Ohio team) and didn't make the playoff bowls. They want this game.
Undefeated Iowa at Undefeated Penn State: Iowa is a heavy underdog, but has been a thorn in Penn State's side a few times. They are also the last remaining unbeaten in the west.
Undefeated Memphis at Undefeated Missouri: Memphis is the last unbeaten in the American. Winning this might well put them on top of the Group of 5 order for the time being. Missouri is coming off a win over ranked former conference mate Kansas State.
Undefeated UCF at 1-loss Kansas State: This is UCF's first conference game and it is against a team just coming off being ranked. Kansas State wants to recover and UCF wants to start with a splash.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 7, American: 1, Big 12: 5, Big Ten: 6, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 8, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 1, total: 39
Florida State
Maryland
Wake Forest
Duke
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Colorado
Kansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Louisville
Rutgers
Syracuse
Iowa
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Marshall
Memphis
Central Florida
Air Force
Brigham Young
Utah
Oregon
Oregon State
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
Auburn
Mississippi
Fresno State
Notre Dame
Georgia State
Liberty
(James Madison)
Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, independents: 1, total: 7
Virginia
East Carolina
(Sam Houston)
Connecticut
Buffalo
Colorado State
Nevada
