I figure in a given year, a team adds 25+ via recruiting, and then they lose 5 or so to the portal, and gain 5 or so in the portal. I believe personally that recruiting is quite important, even if the importance is somewhat attenuated with the portal. It's a lesser factor, and the top teams recruit well.
A flashy first year coach may do unusually well using the portal, he may have to, but it is a rare event.